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June 9, 2012
Tonsor)
2
Events Summary
• State-by-State … most influence…
• Risk sending signal of indifference … than “maximize expected profit”)
• However multiple …
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
s Farm Management Association
Risk & Profit – August 22 & 23, 2019
… Cannot deduct contributions required in exchange for seating preference at college events (Ahearn Fund)
Limitation on cash contributions increased to 60% of AGI (from 50%)
… the table gives the tax due on the amount that spills over to the 24% bracket in the previous example
38
Worksheet 2 accounts for itemized deductions that exceed standard deduction (standard deduction is built into withholding tables)
Also accounts for “above the line” deductions
…
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
as ethanol plants on September 1st ranged from $3.22 ¾ ($0.35 under
Page | 2
DEC) to $3.72 ¾ ($0.15 over DEC) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and
nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas
grain markets, it is a positive that Kansas cash corn prices have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer production risk. The corn market has b …
October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
orecast for “Current Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected 2016 U.S.
wheat plantings of 50.154 million acres (ma) – down 4.845 ma (‐8.8%) from 2015. The USDA also forecast
2016 harvested acres of 43.890 ma which would be down 3.428 ma (‐7.2%) vs 2015. Based on record high
projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 52.6 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is
forecast to be 2.310 bb (vs 2.062 bb in 2015), with total supplies of 3.410 bb (up from 2.927 bb in “old crop”
MY 2015/16), and total use of 2.272 bb (up from 1.952 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “current crop” MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.138 bb (vs 976 mb a
year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 50.09% S/U (vs 50.0% last year and 37.2% the previous year).
U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $3.50 to $3.90 (midpoint = $3.70 /bu) – down
from $4.89 /bu in “old crop” MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State
University that these USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2016/17 have an 80% probability of occurring.
Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2016/17: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, one potential KSU‐Scenario for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices is presented for “current
crop” MY 2016/17 – and is given a 20% probability of occurring. Assuming the same 2016 acreage, yields,
imports, and production as USDA, as well as food and seed use, the alternative scenarios assumes a) higher
U.S. wheat exports (1.125 bb vs 975 mb by USDA), and b) lower feed and residual use (240 mb vs 260 mb by
USDA).
The resulting KSU “Higher Exports with Spring 2017 U.S. Wheat Development Problems” Scenario (20%
probability) assumes for “current crop” MY 2016/17: 2.310 bb production, 3.410 bb total supplies, 1.125 bb
exports, 240 mb feed & residual use, 1.008 bb ending stocks, 41.97% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. wheat avg. price.
KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat
supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume a 5% decline in
U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage in 2017 (with a 7% decline for U.S. winter wheat, and no changes
for other spring wheat and durum wheat classes. These KSU projections also assume at least a continued
moderation in the value of the U.S. dollar during the “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, with some
improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result.
KSU Scenario A) “Trend Yield, Moderately Higher Exports” Scenario (65% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 41.696 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 2.063 bb production, 3.326 bb
total supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 250 mb feed & residual use, 2.286 bb total use, 1.040 bb ending stocks,
45.49% S/U, & $4.10 /bu U.S. wheat average price; and
KSU Scenario B) “Lower Yield, Average Exports” Scenario (35% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 41.696 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac lower yield, 1.914 bb production, 3.177 bb total
supplies, 980 mb exports, 240 mb feed & residual use, 2.256 bb total use, 921 mb ending stocks, 40.82% S/U,
& $4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
also directs the
Center for Risk
Management Education and … Joe’s
work focuses on risk
management and policy
solutions … innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader …
August 15, 2016
Breakout session presentations
2016 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … Through KFMA he provides profitability analysis as well as income … “Boom” times: increased profit margins and cash flows can encourage growth of farm operation and expanded borrowing• …
September 26, 2022
Industry Economics & Trade
down from 92.7 percent the
previous five years (2011-2015 … up from 41.6 percent the previous five years (2011-2015)
(Figure …
July 18, 2012
Energy
cost variability and greater risk management challenges ...........18
Figure … characterized by natural lag between profits and changes in slaughter … required cuts in use in the event of short-crop conditions.
Livestock …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
cost variability and greater risk management challenges ...........18
Figure … characterized by natural lag between profits and changes in slaughter … required cuts in use in the event of short-crop conditions.
Livestock …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… 250 bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provi … midst of the 2017 Kansas corn harvest.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
cor …