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Breakout Sessions
activities in crop production and
livestock production at subsistence …
April 16, 2024
Fed Cattle Pricing
have made regarding LMR (Livestock Mandatory
Reporting) that … packers than are subject to livestock mandatory reporting (LMR …
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
made to ARC County
• The policy intends for FSA to implement … and lender in the country, policy makers protected crop insurance … This reduced the usefulness of ARC.
• Trade policies would exacerbate some of …
Modeling Impacts of Location- and Product-Targeted Demand Enhancement on Pork Producer Profitability
May 1, 2024
Meat Demand Research Studies
is useful when analyzing policies or supply shocks, for examples … where one region enacts a policy governing pork
that differs … commodity and retail food policies on obesity and
economic …
March 5, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
supporting U.S. Corn Use
o Livestock Feed 2017/18 = 5.550 bln … Exports cause “shifts” in Livestock & Feed Use
o Exports 2017/18 … impact of China
Grain Stocks policies on
World grain markets!!
“Total” …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Change in routine
• Care of livestock declines
• Increase in … Change in routine
• Care of livestock declines
• Increase in … health: Major findings and policy implications. Journal of …
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 4
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
July 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On July 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2017 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for wheat.
“New crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. wheat will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had
released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested acreage
estimates from the Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop the July 12th projection of 2017 U.S.
wheat production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports. The grain stocks estimates released on June
30th were used to calculate U.S. wheat livestock feed and residual usage in “old crop” MY 2016/17 – focusing
on usage in the March‐May 2017 time period.
Following its normal procedures, the new supply‐demand and price forecasts for “new crop” 2017/18 from
the USDA will be released in the August 10, 2017 USDA WASDE report.
CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat SEPT 2017 & MARCH 2018 Futures
SEPTEMBER 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.11 ¼ on February 11,
2017, and as low as $4.28 on April 21, 2017 before climbing to $5.77 ¼ on July 5th. Since that early July 2017
high, SEPT 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to a close of $5.02 ¾ on Tuesday, July 18th (Figure 1).
Figure 1. SEPTEMBER 2017 & MAY 2018 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Daily Price Charts …
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 4
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
August 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On August 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its August 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years
(MY) for wheat. “New crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. wheat began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018.
On September 12th the USDA will release its 2017 September Crop Production and WASDE reports.
However, any significant changes in USDA projections of 2017 supply changes are more likely to be released in
the September 30, 2017 the USDA 2017 Small Grains Annual Summary report to be released by the National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/). This Small Grains Annual Summary report will
provide updated information on U.S. wheat acreage planted and harvested, yield and production by wheat
production class – by state and for the United States as a whole. Upon its release the 2017 Small Grains
Annual Summary Report will be available at the following web address:
https://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1268
On that same day (September 30th) the USDA will also release its quarterly Grain Stocks report – providing
information on all wheat stocks by position (on‐farm or off‐farm) for each state and for the entire United
States (https://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1079). The grain stocks estimates released on
September 30th will be used to calculate U.S. wheat livestock feed and residual usage in “old crop” MY 2017/18
– focusing on usage in the June‐August 2017 time period. These production and usage estimates will be used
by the USDA in its October 12th Crop Production and WASDE report projections of U.S. wheat production and
supply‐demand balances in the “new crop” 2017/18 marketing year.
CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 Futures
DECEMBER 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as low as $4.59 ½ on December 1,
2016, up to $5.30 ¾ on February 16, 2017, and down to $4.53 ¾ on April 25, 2017 before climbing to $6.02 on
July 5th. Since that early July 2017 high, DEC 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to a low of $4.20 on August
29th before closing at $4.45 on Tuesday, September 5th (Figure 1).
JULY 2018 CME Kansas HRW wheat futures followed a similar pattern – trading as low as $4.88 ½ on
December 7, 2016, up to $5.44 on February 16, 2017, and down to $4.90 on April 25, 2017 before climbing to
$6.23 on July 5th. Since that early July 2017 high, JULY 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to a low of $4.71 ¼
on August 29th before closing at $4.92 ¾ on Tuesday, September 5th (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 CME Kansas HRW
Wheat futures contracts on Tuesday, September 5th was $0.47 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $4.92 ¾ for JULY 2018 less
$4.45 for DEC 2017 Wheat), or $0.0682 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in
Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 /bu/mo – before interest, handling costs and/or quality
discounts.
Page | 5
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from DEC 2017 to JULY 2018 would at
least break even and/or cover costs – given that carry of $0.0682 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo
storage cost. This will hold true IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken
further over the December 2017 through July 2018 period.
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Daily Price Charts …
January 1, 2004
Hog Pricing
important to keep in mind
as policy positions are established.
2 …