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March 20, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ina and Paraguay exports as a proportion of World
soybean trade in “current year” MY 2014/15 has been offset by increases in United States’ exports.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt
in MY 2013/14 (32.2% of World total), and 108.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (34.3% of the World
total). United States’ soybean production in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up 18.2% over last
year, and up 30.5% over two years ago.
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.6% of World total), and a projected amount of 48.7 mmt in “current crop” MY
2014/15 (41.5% of the World total). United States’ soybean exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are
projected to be up 8.7% over last year, and up 35.9% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Market
analysts have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine
industry production issues or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors within the country.
However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16, and beyond. If this recent upward trend in Chinese
soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would undoubtably have a substantial negative impact
on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices had
fallen below $9.00 per bushel in late November, but have since moved higher. Central Kansas Terminal cash
bids were in the range of $9.00 ¾ ($0.61 under basis) to $9.31 ¾ ($0.30 under basis) on Thursday, March 19th.
Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the key central Kansas market of
Hutchinson, Kansas were in the range of $8.62 / bu. ($0.86 under basis) to $8.96 ($0.50 under basis). “Current
crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.62 ½ per bushel that day, with “next year’s crop” NOVEMBER
2015 soybean futures closing at $9.47 ¾ per bushel.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that
a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be
harvested in early‐mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in
these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The
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possibility of weather‐related soybean production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in
the United States during the summer‐fall of 2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential
production problems actually do occur the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant
trends” will continue into the foreseeable future.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the March 10th USDA Reports
“Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the March 10th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME MARCH 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.92 ½ /bu, and traded as high as $9.94 and as low as $9.81 ¾ during the session, before
settling at $9.84 ½ – down $0.08 ¾ for the day. Since then MAY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded
within the range from a high of $9.97 ½ on March 11th and 12th, to a low of $9.53 ½ on March 17th and 18th,
before closing at $9.73 ¾ on Thursday, March 20th.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
November 8, 2016
Water Policy
producers and stakeholders in other areas. The knowledge of how … specific conservation plan to meet local goals. LEMAs are
proactive … minimizing the effects of other factors such as
3 …
March 13, 2019
Water Policy
producers and stakeholders in other areas. The knowledge of how … specific conservation plan to meet local goals. LEMAs are
proactive … minimizing the effects of other factors such as
3 …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,815 FARM UNITS plus 463 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,278 … Income output. Income for
other livestock and crop items … Crop Enterprises:
Total Other Income: Summation of: Landlord …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,891 FARM UNITS plus 415 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2 … 43-59
Can My Farm Meet the Test? ........................................................................................................60 … Income output.
Income for other livestock and crop items …
June 1, 2009
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or place monetary value on other
benefits of water conservation … agencies, state authorities, and other authorities. A total of … provide policy makers and other interested
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July 30, 2015
Animal Well-Being
Law School) earned
Other 0%
No answer 6%
Income … vaccination claims) 47%
Other 3%
Most frequent cattle … feedlot operation 9%
Other 7%
Did not answer 4%
Table …
June 25, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
the later half of “old crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., February through August 2018.
World Total Supplies: World corn total supplies of 1,245.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast
to be down moderately from 1,262.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but up from the record high of 1,288.4
mmt in MY 2016/17.
World Exports: World corn exports of a 158.0 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up 4.6%
from 151.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but down 1% from the record high of 159.7 mmt in MY 2016/17
(Table 3).
World Ending Stocks (% Stocks/Use): Projected World corn ending stocks of 154.7 mmt (14.2% S/U) in
“new crop” MY 2018/19 are down 19.7% from 192.7 mmt (18.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down 32.1%
from the record high 227.9 mmt (21.5% S/U) in MY 2016/17, and 210.0 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16
(Figure 13‐14a, Tables 8‐9). Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 114.6 mmt (13.1% S/U) in
“new crop” MY 2018/19, is down 16.5% from 139.3 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and is down
from 17.7% from 169.3 mmt (20.0% S/U) in MY 2016/17.
World‐Less‐China Ending Stocks (% Stocks/Use): An alternative view of the World corn supply‐
demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks are isolated from the World market (Figures
14b‐c, Tables 7‐9). “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 94.19 mmt (11.2% S/U) in “new
crop” MY 2018/19, down from 113.1 mmt (13.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 127.2 mmt
(15.4% S/U) in MY 2016/17. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be 21% lower (i.e., 11.2% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China” versus 14.2% S/U for the “World”
overall in “new crop” MY 2018/19).
World versus China Ending Stocks: At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending
stocks of corn as proportion of the World total are declining – down from 52.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.2% in
MY 2016/17, to 41.3% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and now are projected to be 39.1% in “new crop” MY
2018/19 (Tables 2‐9). The deliberate actions in recent years taken by the Chinese government to reduce
feedgrain stockpiles is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions may
eventually increase Chinese import demand for U.S. feedgrains if and when China has a severe short crop
situation and limited stockpiles available to meet domestic demand.
…
Summary Book - All Counties
Income output. Income for
other livestock and crop items … Crop Enterprises:
Total Other Income: Summation of: Landlord … to industry benchmarks and other farms in
your area. We wish …