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March 7, 2022
Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
Supply shortages occurred
• Monetary policy eased
• US dollar depreciated in value
• … Energy and food prices increased
Since 2020, U.S. inflation has been rising, but is it transitory?
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price IndexPercent change from previous year
‐4%
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14%
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PCE Price Index (Headline)
PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (Core)
Higher inflation is noted in energy and durable goods
More subdued inflation in food / beverages, but commodity prices are rising…how could the Ukraine and Russian conflict impact these measures?
What about demand for U.S. dollars and U.S. exchange rates?
• …
September 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
2016
crop U.S. corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S.
corn exports – driven largely by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016, and 4) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy,
and other commodity markets. For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S.
Federal Reserve could affect U.S. interest rates, or geo‐political events could occur that would “shock” World
energy and grain markets.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn
plantings of 94.148 ma (up 6.149 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.550 ma (up 5.801 ma from 2015),
record high projected yields of 174.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the current record high of 171.0 bu/ac
in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.093 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the
current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.859 bb (record high), total use of 14.475 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.384 bb (16.47% S/U) – up from 1.716 bb (12.54% S/U) in “old crop” MY
2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $2.90‐$3.50 (midpoint = $3.20 /bu) – being down from $3.60 /bu for “old crop” MY
2015/16. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a lower U.S. corn yields and production
than the September 12th USDA WASDE report.
Page | 2
KSU Scenario A) “Minor Crop Problems – 14.9 bb” Scenario (30% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted,
86.550 ma harvested, 172.0 bu/ac yield, 14.887 bb production, 16.653 bb total supplies, 14.450 bb total use,
2.203 bb ending stocks, 15.25% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
KSU Scenario B) “Moderate Crop Problems – 14.5 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma
planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 168.0 bu/ac yield, 14.540 bb production, 16.306 bb total supplies, 14.344 bb
total use, 1.962 bb ending stocks, 13.68% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
KSU Scenario C) “More Serious Crop Problems – 14.2 bb” Scenario (10% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma
planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 14.194 bb production, 15.190 bb total supplies, 14.239 bb
total use, 1.721 bb ending stocks, 12.09% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,026.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,013.6 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn total supplies of 1,235.9 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,167.3 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.9 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of 139.8 mmt are
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7
mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 219.5 mmt (21.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17
are up from 209.25 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.3 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY
2014/15.
Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January‐May 2016, 2nd crop harvested
in May‐August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.
This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided some support for U.S. corn exports and even
ethanol production (via exports). But expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a
predominant negative impact on U.S. corn market prices to date. Brazilian corn production is forecast by the
USDA to rebound back to 82.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).
China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September‐October 2016) is estimated to be
216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65
mmt in MY 2014/15. Most of the focus in World corn markets is on Chinese ending stocks. Ending stocks of
corn in China are projected to be 103.65 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt
(50.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 110.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
…
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for
wheat. “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2016 and will last through 5/31/2017. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop Production report on
the same day. However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey‐based, but instead
carried forward information from the most recent November 9, 2016 report.
Earlier, on December 1st, the USDA released the initial, preliminary tables of their Long Term Agricultural
Projections to 2026 (https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/) – with the complete report including descriptive
text and additional analysis to be released later at the 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia
on February 23‐24, 2017 (https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/). As part of these Long Term Agricultural Projections the
USDA provides an initial set of supply‐demand and price forecasts for U.S. wheat and other crops for upcoming
MY 2017/18 and succeeding years.
On January 12, 2017 the USDA will release a number of key reports that have potential to significantly
impact U.S. and World grain market supply‐demand balances and prices. On that date, the January 2017 NASS
Crop Production report, 2016 Annual Crop Production Summary report (NASS), the quarterly Grain Stocks
report (NASS) for December 1, 2016, the Winter Wheat & Canola Seedings report (NASS), and the January
2017 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE‐WAOB) report will all be released.
The upcoming January 12, 2017 USDA NASS Crop Production report will be survey based, and has the
potential to cause sizable changes USDA estimates of 2016 U.S. crop production. Information from the January
2017 Crop Production report will match that in the 2016 Annual Crop Production Summary report, while the
results of the quarterly Grain Stocks report will be used for calculations pertaining to the January 2017
WASDE report.
CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH 2017 & JULY 2017 Futures
Following lows of $5.00 per bushel on May 12th and May 24th, 2016, MARCH 2017 CME Kansas
hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.51 ¾ on June 8th. From that June 8th
high by July 5th MARCH 2017 futures prices fell $1.10 ¼ per bushel to a low of $4.41 ½. MARCH 2017
CME KS HRW Wheat futures then traded in a sideways range during the July 6th through August 26th
period – ranging from a high of $4.74 (on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.42 ¾ (on 7/22/2016) – before
breaking out of this sideways trading range on August 29th and falling to successive lows of $4.11 ½
per bushel on August 31st, $4.14 ½ on October 13th, and $3.99 ½ on December 7th. MARCH 2017 CME
KS HRW Wheat futures closed at $4.09 ½ on Wednesday, December 28th (Figure 1).
JULY 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded down to a low of $5.16 ½ per
bushel on May 11, 2016, and then trended higher up to $5.69 ¾ on June 8th. From that June 8th high,
prices fell $1.08 per bushel to a low of $4.61 ¾ on July 5th. Then JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat
Page | 4
futures traded in a sideways range during the July 6th to the August 25th period – from a high of $4.94
(on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.64 (on 7/22/2016) – before breaking out of this range on August 26th
and falling to a low of $4.32 on August 31st. Since then, JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat futures first
traded as high as $4.61 ¼ on September 23rd, then down to a low of $4.35 on October 12th, before
trending back higher to $4.67 ½ per bushel on October 20th before falling to a low of $4.23 ½ on
December 7th and eventually closing at $4.32 on December 28, 2016 (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MARCH 2017 & JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Daily Price Charts …
October 15, 2018
2018 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
on market risk, government commodity programs, crop insurance … crop insurance and public policy. He has authored several … Changed from an Unpopular Policy to the Farmer Preferred …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
sheep, beef, and lamb. In 2012, coverage of pork
transactions … long-term
investments and policy.
Since enactment of … importance of export markets; and policy that all impact LMR design …
April 26, 2018
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
last survey was conducted in 2012. Previous surveys had focused … irrigated
farmland, and for the 2012 survey, that information … percentages were 63.5% and 23.0% in 2012. In
2008, those percentages …
November 12, 2015
2015 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Expenses
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Years … Gain/Loss. For example in 2012 premium $8.640 billion – … 1,363,596,159 631,381,356 732,214,803
2012 8,640,864,294 9,001,226,587 …
October 19, 2020
Financial Management, Family Living Expenses - Articles
incomes decline due to low commodity
prices, paying higher health … more individuals on their policy … To give some context to policies being implemented in these …
August 1, 2023
Breakout Sessions
ISSUES
Today’s primary drivers of commodity markets…
Source: https://slidelizard.com/en/blog/powerpoint-world-map
Drought … security,
Increasing government policies to restrict trade, protect … tightening of US Monetary Policy, i.e. - Higher Interest Rates …
November 14, 2013
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-30
10/31/13Livestock … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-31
10/31/13
Livestock … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-32
10/31/13
Livestock …