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July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
grains … Future Patterns of U.S. Grains,
Biofuels, and Livestock … 2012
Future Patterns of U.S. Grains, Biofuels, and
Livestock …
September 21, 2022
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
grain … PROGRESS OF FIELD WORK IN UKRAINE, EXPECTATIONS AND NEEDS4. RUSSIAN GRAIN HARVEST AND EXPORTS
RUSSIA’S … 7.6 20.0 7.9Total export(grain + flour)
44105 48579 2937 …
July 18, 2012
Energy
grains … Future Patterns of U.S. Grains,
Biofuels, and Livestock … 2012
Future Patterns of U.S. Grains, Biofuels, and
Livestock …
April 26, 2023
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
grain … units
Agricultural machinery; 4.65; 53%
Destroyed and stolen ag products; 1.87; 21%
Grain storage facilities ; 1.33; 15%
Perennial crops; 0.5; 6%
Others; 0.4; 5%
DIRECT DAMAGE FROM THE WAR TO UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion
$8.7 … ROLE OF UKRAINE IN WORLD AGRICULTURE IN 2022
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, USDA
Alternative export routesTransshipment …
Projections and Sources of MYA Prices for ARC and PLC Commodity Programs for 2023/2024 and 2024/2025
April 30, 2024
Risk Management Strategies
at $7.06, corn is $4.66, grainsorghum is $4.98, and soybean price … be $6.79, corn is $4.82, grainsorghum is $5.23, and soybeans is … national prices determined by USDA and are based on monthly …
USDA Reports vs Trade Estimates
Part … American Corn, Soybean, Wheat & Sorghum in "Current" 2016/17 & 2015/16 … 2015/16 Marketing Years
A1. USDA January 12, 2017 U.S …
December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
S. Corn Market Prospects in Mid‐December 2018
The December 11th USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) estimates report provided
only minor changes in the aggregate narrative consensus view of the U.S. corn market about price prospects.
The U.S. corn market appears to be functioning with a group view that there will be large, abundantly available
supplies of U.S. corn through at least mid‐summer 2019 – and that these sizable supplies will continue to be a
limiting factor for any upward movement in U.S. corn prices.
The current corn market consensus rests on the following negative, neutral, and positive corn market
factors in the post‐harvest 2018 period.
…
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Total U.S. Corn Supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19: In addition, the USDA projects total supplies of
U.S. corn in the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) starting 9/1/2018 to be 16.816 bb –
maintaining downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. Total supplies of U.S. corn in MY 2016/17 were a
record high of 16.942 bb, and were only marginally lower at 16.934 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 which
ended on August 31, 2018 (Table 1 & Figure 7).
…
May 30, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
The U.S. Corn Market Situation in Spring 2019
The serious and prolonged spring planting season problems during April‐May 2019 for U.S. corn
producers are leading to a sharp reduction in 2019 U.S. corn production prospects. The likelihood of
a U.S. corn production shortfall in year 2019 is bring about a classic “short crop” marketing year for
U.S. corn markets in “new crop” MY 2019/20. The last major “short crop” for U.S. corn production
occurred seven (7) years ago in year 2012 due to excessive summer heat.
Concerns about delayed plantings or even the potential inability to plant corn or other crops this
year have driven corn futures sharply higher in recent weeks. “Old crop” JULY 2019 Corn futures
prices have increased from a low of $3.43 /bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.38 on May 29th before
closing at $4.18 ¾ that same day. Similarly, “new crop” DEC 2019 Corn futures prices have increased
from a low of $3.63 ¾ /bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.54 on May 29th before closing at $4.35 ¾
that same day (Figures 1a‐b‐c, & 2a‐b). With this rally in corn futures, managed money (specs) who
had been holding record short or bearish positions have begun to buy back their short futures
positions and instead build up the long or buy side of trade portfolios (Figures 3a‐b‐c‐d).
The U.S. government is also planning to provide a second round of Market Facilitation Payments
(MFPs) to U.S. crop producers, with the stipulation that crops have to be actually planted in year
2019 to collect these MFP funds. The longer into June 2019 these U.S. corn planting delays go, the
more difficult it may be for U.S. corn producers to keep with their original plans to plant corn this
year, and not switch to other shorter season cropping options such as soybeans and grain sorghum.
It is an oversimplification to say that the direction of the U.S. corn market for the remainder of
“current” MY 2018/19 (ending August 31st) and the start of “new crop” MY 2019/20 (starting
September 1st) will depend largely on the amount of U.S. corn acres planted over the coming few
weeks through June 2019. During that period U.S. farmers will likely be “under duress” as they make
what may be difficult late season planting decisions.
Page | 2
2 …
February 13, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Introduction – An Overview of the U.S. Corn Market & USDA Reports
Corn Market Over … 6/17 marketing year (MY). Market projections from the USDA are for this
“tighteni … pward movement in U.S. corn prices throughout
Spring, Summer and Fall 2019.
Corn market price expectations in year 2019 are heavily influenced by seasonal grain futures price patterns …