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November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Corn Futures Positions of Traders (CFTC Data)
Position of traders data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is available from
the CFTC at the following web address: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm The CFTC
position of traders data on November 13th shows a more stable picture of corn futures trader sentiments that
may have been otherwise expected. This is especially true in regards to the quantity of long futures positions
held by Management Money (Speculator or “Spec”) traders than otherwise expected given harvest time
futures prices.
Net Positions of Commercial, Spec, & Index Traders: The net “long” or “buy” p …
December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Corn Futures Positions of Traders (CFTC Data)
Position of traders data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is available from
the CFTC at the following web address: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm . The CFTC
position of traders data on December 4th shows a “stable” or “balanced” picture of corn futures trader
sentiments especially in regards to the offsetting quantities of “long” and “short” futures positions held by
Management Money (Speculator or “Spec”) traders.
Net Positions of Commercial, Spec, & Index Traders: The net “long” or “buy” p …
October 14, 2011
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
1926-2009
Service Cooperatives Farm Supply Cooperatives Marketing … seed technology,
enhanced farming techniques, achievement of … U.S. farmers
– Average farm size 150 acres (60 ha)
• …
April 13, 2020
Ag Law Issues
Overview
The 2018 Farm Bill legitimized the commercial … of today’s post.
2018 Farm Bill
Historically, federal … 115-334 (also known as the 2018 Farm Bill), removed
hemp from …
May 17, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
May 8, 2019 ‐ S&P 500: ‐0.16%
From this it seems that the DEC‐JAN period started off quite positive for the U.S.‐China trade
negotiations, with a temporary 90 day halt of tariffs. Then by the time we get to late February, there
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is a negative announcement in the market ‐ apparently being interpreted by corn market participants
that limited positive progress had been made in the negotiations.
Flat vs Seasonal Prices in the “Current Crop” 2018/19 Marketing Year
If monthly differentials are averaged across the December 2018 through projected May 2019
period, the average monthly price difference between a regular seasonal pattern of U.S. corn prices
and what occurred is estimated to be $0.20 per bushel per month based on cash and futures prices
available through May 16, 2019. If the next step is taken to weight these prices by USDA estimates of
monthly U.S. percent of cash corn sales, then the average monthly U.S. corn price difference is scaled
down to $0.07 per bushel per month. Which approach to take – weighting by average monthly sales
percentages or not, is a matter of debate.
Figures 1abc and Figures 2a‐b illustrate this pattern in futures and cash corn prices. Figures 2a
and 2b especially and Table 1a show specific details of how during January through mid‐May 2019
U.S. cash corn prices have been less than would be occur should average seasonal price patterns
occur based on historic seasonal corn price patterns in Kansas.
“Bearish” Corn Market Impact Shown in CFTC Commitment of Traders Data
The bearish tone of the U.S. corn market during the January to mid‐May 2019 period is well
documented, as shown by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commitment of
traders data in Figures 3a‐d. Note especially the record bearish or “sell” position of Managed Money
Traders as shown in Figures 3a and 3d. The implication is that grain market speculative traders held
record bearish positions during parts of January to mid‐May 2019.
The CFTC data for the aggregate trading positions of Managed Money Traders (Specs) or MMT‐
Specs shows something of the "effect" of a change in market sentiments about a positive resolution
to the U.S.‐China Trade conflict beginning to occur during January 2019 and continuing through mid‐
May 2019.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders data indicate that December 2018 was a time of relative
optimism for MMT‐Specs, as their long positions for the weeks ending 12/2‐12/31 were net long by a
range of 200 …
April 19, 2018
Agribusiness Papers
producers, except
those farming as a C-corporation, with … Deduction
All producers farming as pass-through businesses … equaling 20 percent of their
net income from commodity sales …
December 8, 2023
Ag Law Issues
and Self-Employment Tax
Net earnings from self-employment … LLP, 136 T.C 137 (2011).
Farming and ranching operations … partnership,” such as a farming
operation, it is possible …
April 9, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
Crop” 2017 Feedgrains
• On-Farm Storage Yes, but not … spring-summer 2018
• Off-Farm Storage Maybe, but will … Be aware of Mktg Loan$ vs Net Put$
• Fwrd Contract …
February 23, 2023
Ag Law Issues
Research Service expects 2023 netfarm incomes to decline nearly … projected to rise 7 percent. Net cash income is
expected … excellent.
That’s just the farm-related economic projections …
February 14, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
Crop” 2017 Feedgrains
• On-Farm Storage Yes, but not … spring-summer 2018
• Off-Farm Storage Maybe, but will … Be aware of Mktg Loan$ vs Net Put$
• Fwrd Contract …