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September 19, 2011
Swine
Low cost of borrowing
5) Farm income is very
positive … World War II
Real U.S. NetFarm IncomeNetfarm income is subject to booms …
January 1, 2011
GIPSA's Proposed Rules (Release No. 0326.10)
costs of grid pricing, reduce net
premium for “higher quality” … billion
Additional Considerations
• Farm-retail margins
– Widening … data
• By definition farm-retail margin is overstated…
Additional …
March 4, 2025
Precision Ag and Technology Articles
of 10
May 2024. Midwestern farms were unusually vulnerable … planting for a representative farm is estimated. Analysis of … Analysis of a representative
farm is necessary because no other …
June 24, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
The U.S. Corn Market Situation on June 24, 2019
The serious and prolonged excess moisture problems during the 2019 spring planting season for
U.S. corn have led to a sharp reduction in 2019 U.S. corn production prospects. In some areas of the
U.S. Corn Belt the historic extremely moist field condition situation that began during April‐May has
persisted through June 2019 – beyond crop insurance full coverage deadlines and the physiological
limits of a normal annual planting / growing season.
The strong likelihood of a major U.S. corn production shortfall in year 2019 has brought about the
strong likelihood of a classic “short crop” scenario occurring for U.S. corn in the “new crop” 2019/20
marketing year. The last major “short crop” marketing year for U.S. corn occurred seven (7) years ago
in year 2012 due to extreme summer heat and accompanying crop stress – rather than the over‐
abundance of rainfall with accompanying flooding and soggy fields that has occurred in Spring 2019.
In so many words, calendar year 2019 has already become a unique, “analog” year in terms of
how spring moisture has delayed or prevented U.S. corn plantings. What remains to be seen are that
actual, physical “numbers” for planted and harvested U.S. corn acres, the rate of crop development
Page | 3
and eventual degree of physiological maturity in the fall of 2019, and the final size and quality of the
2019 U.S. corn crop going into “new crop” MY 2019/20.
These U.S. corn supply concerns have driven corn futures sharply higher in recent weeks as the
corn market anticipates how sharply reduced 2019 U.S. corn production would lead to much tighter
U. S. corn supply‐demand balances and the need for price rationing of usage in “new crop” MY
2019/20 (beginning on September 1, 2019).
For example, “old crop” JULY 2019 Corn futures prices have increased from a low of $3.43 per
bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.38 on May 29th, and then up to a high of $4.64 ¼ on June 17th,
before closing lower at $4.47 on June 24th. Similarly, “new crop” DEC 2019 Corn futures prices have
increased from a low $3.63 ¾ per bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.54 on May 29th, and then
likewise up to a high of $4.73 on June 17th, before closing lower at $4.57 ¼ on June 24th . (Figures 1 &
2a‐b). With this rally in corn futures, managed money (specs) traders who had been holding record
short or bearish positions during April through mid‐May, through mid‐June have bought back much
(but not all) of their bearish short futures positions and instead build up the long or buy side of their
speculative trade portfolios (Figures 3a‐b‐c‐d).
The U.S. government is also planning to provide a second round of Market Facilitation Payments
(MFPs) to U.S. crop producers, with the stipulation that crops have to be actually planted in year
2019 to collect these MFP funds. That actual crop acres had to be planted for farmers to receive this
second round of MFP payments has been the policy position of the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA)
thr …
February 5, 2013
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
2015?
Interest Rates
3/20/2013
6
While the zero bound is a new issue in monetary policy,
excessively low and negative real interest rates are not.
Percent
Source: Featherstone, Allen M. and Timothy Gl. Baker. 1987. “An Examination of Farm Sector Real Asset Dynamics: 1910 – … Jan‐12
Trade Weighted Exchange
Rate (Left Axis)
Real Corn Prices (Right Axis)
Index = Jan. 2000
Exchange rates are exceptionally low, which plays a
role in determining corn prices.
1
2
3
Financial
Crisis
Value of the U.S. Dollar
3/20/2013
10
Expected Farm
Income
Capitalization
Rates
Farmland
Values=÷Interest Rates
Interest rates can affect farmland values through two avenues.
Value of the U.S. Dollar and Farmland Values
‐4.0
‐2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1970 …
January 1, 2014
Dhuyvetter
Agricultural Economist
Farm Management
Glynn T. Tonsor
Agricultural … Level
Costs per unit and net returns to livestock production … time of the year.
Kansas Farm Management Association summary …
January 1, 2014
Level
Costs per unit and net returns to livestock production … death loss and shrink. Kansas Farm Manage-
ment Association … facilities and equipment.
Farm Management Guide MF1007
Summer …
January 1, 2014
Dhuyvetter
Agricultural Economist
Farm Management
Glynn T. Tonsor
Agricultural … Level
Costs per unit and net returns to livestock production … time of the year.
Kansas Farm Management Association summary …
January 1, 2014
Dhuyvetter
Agricultural Economist
Farm Management
Glynn T. Tonsor
Agricultural … Level
Costs per unit and net returns to livestock production … time of the year.
Kansas Farm Management Association summary …
January 1, 2014
Level
Costs per unit and net returns to livestock production … death loss and shrink. Kansas Farm Management As-
sociation … facilities and equipment.
Farm Management Guide MF1008
Summer …