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January 1, 2014
crops section of the K-State Farm Management
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Costs per unit and net returns in livestock production …
September 1, 2022
2022 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Trends
Robin ReidExtension Farm EconomistKansas State University … the Ag. Land market?
• Farm Income remains strong
• … 3Agricultural Economics
Net …
showed less than $100,000 of net profits on line 34 of Schedule … a PPP loan based upon its net profits.• Now, using line … 4797 from selling or trading farm assets.
Uncertainty
• …
March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… 31.80 mmb). Production in China is projected to be down 2.2% to
134.43 mmt, while India wheat production is forecast to be up 1.2% to 99.70 mmt.
E. World Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks‐to‐Use
Record large carryover ending stocks of 279.61 mmt (37.56% stocks‐to‐use) from “old crop” MY
2017/18 have upheld total World supplies and supply‐demand balances – which are projected to be
270.53 mmt (36.45% stocks‐to‐use) in “current” MY 2018/19. Percent ending stocks‐to‐use of
37.56% in “old crop” MY 2017/18 were record high in the modern era since the early 1970s, while
34.46% stocks/use in “current” MY 2018/19 are the 2nd highest since the farm crisis years of the mid‐
1980s, and the 4th highest in the modern era (Figures 13, 14a‐b & 15a‐b).
In response to lower production, Russia has chosen to “sell down” it’s carryover wheat stocks to
maintain market position in global trade. Russia wheat ending stocks are projected to be 6.55 mmt in
“current” MY 2018/19, down from 11.87 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 10.83 mmt in MY
2016/17. In the short run this strategy of “mining” of carryover stocks by Russia DOES allow it to
maintain World export market share in “current” MY 2018/19. HOWEVER, this strategy ALSO may
leave future Russian supply‐demand balances more vulnerable to any domestic crop shortfall that
may occur in “new crop” MY 2019/20 and succeeding years.
F. “World‐Less‐China” Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks‐to‐Use
Considering World wheat ending stocks adjusted for Chinese reserves (i.e., “World‐Less‐China”)
provides a much tighter picture of “accessible” or “available” World wheat supply‐demand balances
than the aggregate “World” measure. “World‐Less‐China” wheat carryover ending stocks are
calculated to be 130.53 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19 – down from 148.35 mmt in “old crop” MY
2017/18. These figures compare to World ending stocks of 270.61 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19,
and 249.61 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 15ab).
“World‐Less‐China” percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use are estimated to be and 11 year low of
21.15% in “current” MY 2018/19 – down from 23.80% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. This compares to
aggregate World Stocks‐to‐Use of 36.45% in “current” MY 2017/18, and 37.56% in “old crop” MY
20017/18.
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This “tightness” in “World‐Less‐China” wheat stocks along with tighter exportable supplies in the
European Union and the Black Sea region appear to have provided quiet support to World wheat
market prices, but has not as of yet caused any major rallies.
G. 2019 U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions
Prospects for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop are mostly “Fair to Good” at this time in the
southern and central plains region of the country. Reports from the USDA National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) in Kansas for the week ending March 17, 2019 indicated that a survey of
observers in the state of winter wheat acreage rated the crop as 5% “excellent”, 44% “good”, 40%
“fair”, 8% “poor”, and 3% “very poor”. In Oklahoma, the HRW wheat crop was rated as 5%
“excellent”, 55% “good”, 35% “fair”, 5% “poor”, and 0% “very poor”. Similarly, in Texas, the HRW
wheat crop was rated as 6% “excellent”, 27% “good”, 44% “fair”, 17% “poor”, and 6% “very poor”.
As the 2019 hard red winter wheat crop breaks dormancy and begins spring growth in late March‐
early April, the condition in which the crop survived somewhat challenging winter conditions will
become apparent. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production
reports first and preliminarily on April 9th, and then especially as the crop is more developed on May
10th, June 11th and July 11th will provide more substantiated information on 2019 U.S. HRW Wheat
production prospects.
H. U.S. Wheat Exports
Export shipments of U.S. wheat have been running behind the pace needed to meet USDA export
projections for U.S. Wheat overall, and for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in particular. According to
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) data, through March 14th forward sales of U.S. exports are
still on track to meet USDA forecasts of 965 million bushels (mb) in the “current” 2018/19 marketing
year (MY) – ending on May 31, 2019 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 9ab‐10ab).
Total shipments to date plus forward sales are projected to have reached 88.1% (850.4 mb) of the
USDA’s forecast on March 14th with 78.8% of the marketing year completed (i.e., 41/52 weeks).
However, actual physical shipments to date of 638.4 mb amount to only 66.1% of the USDA forecast,
with a shipment rate of 29.7 mb per week needed through the end of “current” MY 2018/19 to meet
the USDA target of 965 mb. For the weeks of March 7th and 14th, U.S. Wheat shipments of 27.3 mb
and 13.1 mb were behind the weekly average of 29.7 mb needed to meet the USDA’s projections by
May 31, 2019. Shipments of U.S. HRW Wheat are in a similar situation, as strong weekly shipments
are still needed through August 31st to attain the USDA U.S. export projection of 320 mb in “current”
MY 2018/19.
I. U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Prices
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand, and price projections for the U.S. for
“current” MY 2018/19 in the March 8th WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
report) (Tables 1‐1a). The USDA also released its preliminary projections for the “new crop” MY
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2019/20 at it’s February 22nd Agricultural Outlook Conference (Table 1a). The “new crop” 2019/18
marketing year for wheat represents the June 1, 2019 through March 31, 2020 period. These
preliminary forecasts indicate USDA’s expectations of 1%‐2% lower planted acreage in 2019,
approximately 1% higher production and total use in “new crop” MY 2019/20, and marginally higher
prices.
U.S. Wheat Acreage
U.S. wheat plantings are forecast to be 47.000 million acres (ma) in 2019, down 1.67% from
47.800 million acres (ma) in 2018, up from the record low of 46.052 ma in 2017, but down from
50.119 ma in 2016 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 5‐6). Harvested acres are forecast at 39.800 ma in 2019
(84.68% harvested‐to‐planted). This amount of harvested acres is projected to be up 0.5% from
39.605 ma in 2018 (82.86% harvested‐to‐planted), and the record low of 37.555 ma (81.55%
harvested‐to‐planted) in 2017, but still down from 43.848 ma in 2016 (87.49% harvested‐to‐planted)
(Tables 1a‐b, Figure 6). The 2019 U.S. average wheat yield is forecast to be 47.8 bu/ac, up from 47.6
bu/ac in 2018, and 46.4 bu/ac in 2017, but down from the 2016 record high of 52.7 bu/acre (Tables
1a‐b, Figure 7).
The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will be released by the USDA on Friday, March 29, 2019.
Average pre‐report projections of U.S. total wheat for 2019 seedings total 46.9 million acres (ma),
with estimates ranging from 45.9 to 48.0 ma. Preliminary estimates of 2019 winter wheat seedings
(average = 31.5 ma, 30.6 – 32.5 ma range), spring wheat (average = 13.4 ma, 12.3 – 13.9 ma range),
and durum acreage (average 2.0 ma, 1.6 – 2.3 ma range).
In its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report on January, 11, 2019, the USDA projected that
31,290,000 acres of Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat were seeded in the U.S. in fall 2018 – down from
32,535,000 acres in fall 2017, and 32,726,000 acres in fall 2016 (Figure 6). The upcoming March 29th
Prospective Plantings report will provide more information on HRW wheat seedings, as well as for
soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS) wheat, and white wheat (WW) varieties.
U.S. Wheat Production & Total Supplies
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2019 is forecast to be 1.902 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.884 bb
in 2018, and up from 1.741 bb in 2017, but down from 2.309 bb in 2016 (Tables 1a‐b, Figure 8).
Projected “new crop” MY 2019/20 total supplies are forecast to be 3.097 bb, down from forecast
“current” MY 2018/19 total supplies of 3.128 bb, and up from 3.079 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18.
However, 3.097 bb in U.S. total wheat supplies in “new crop” MY 2019/20 would be down from 3.402
bb in MY 2016/17.
U.S. Wheat Total Use
U.S. Wheat total use is projected to by 2.108 bb in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up from a projection
of 2.073 bb in “current” MY 2018/19, and from 1.980 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but down from
2.222 bb in MY 2016/17 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 9a‐b).
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U.S. Exports
In “new crop” MY 2019/20, U.S. wheat exports are forecast to be 975 million bushels (bu), up
from 965 mb in “current” MY 2018/19, and up from 901 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, while being
down from 1.051 bb in MY 2016/17 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 9a‐b, & 10a).
CommentaryKSU: U.S. wheat exports fell to 47‐year lows of 778 mb and 864 mb in MY 2015/16
and MY 2014/15, respectively, down to levels just marginally above those pre‐“Russian Grain Deal”
levels in 1972. This is more evidence of the only marginally competitive position that U.S. wheat
exports find themselves in among foreign export competitors in recent years.
U.S. Food Use
Food Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 980 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up
marginally from 965 mb in “current” MY 2018/19, from 964 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and 949
mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1‐1a, Figure 9ab).
U.S. Feed & Residual Use
Feed & Residual Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 90 mb in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up from
80 mb in “current” MY 2018/19, up from 51 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but less than 160 mb in
MY 2016/17 (Table 1‐1a, Figure 9ab).
CommentaryKSU: With the USDA’s forecast of moderately tighter U.S. corn and total feedgrain
supplies along with moderate support for feedgrain prices, they are anticipating that feeding wheat to
livestock will become more marginally more economical in “new crop” MY 2019/20 than in the current
marking year.
U.S. Ending Stocks & % Stocks‐to‐Use
With an adjustment by KSU for new WASDE report information, USDA projected “new crop” MY
2019/20 ending stocks to be 989 mb (46.92% S/U). This projection is down from “current” MY
2018/19 ending stocks of 1.055 bb (50.89% S/U), both of which are down from 1.099 bb in “old crop”
MY 2017/18 (55.50% S/U), and from 1.181 bb in MY 2016/17 (53.14% stocks/use) (Tables 1‐1a,
Figures 11 & 12).
CommentaryKSU: This projection of 989 mb in U.S. wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2019/20
is the lowest in four (4) years – since 976 mb (49.99% stocks/use) in MY 2015/16. However, it remains
that until either a major wheat production shortfall or what could be an “anticipated” surge in U.S.
wheat exports occurs, the U.S. will likely remain in the current “large supply – large ending stocks”
situation.
U.S. Wheat Prices
United States’ wheat prices are projected to be $5.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up from the
midpoint of $5.15 /bu in the range of $5.10‐$5.20 /bu in “current” MY 2018/19. This would be up
from $4.72 /bu in “old crop” MY 2017/18, from $3.89 in MY 2016/17, and $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16,
but still down from $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 11 & 12).
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J. “Alt” KSU Scenario for U.S. Wheat S/D in “New Crop” MY 2019/20
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s March 8th WASDE and February 22nd
Agricultural Profitability Conference projections. One potential KSU‐Scenario for U.S. wheat supply‐
demand and prices is presented in comparison to the USDA forecast for “new crop” MY 2019/20
(Tables 1‐1a & Figure 11).
USDA Scenario (50% probability): This scenario assumes:
2019 U.S. Planted Acres …
August 31, 2020
Ag Law Issues
exceed either 50 percent of net income on sales of
qualified … have to be involved in the farm business – they don’t … or reselling. Thus, off-farm heirs can be set-up as
IC-DISC …
September 28, 2023
reduce the impact of farming on the environment
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28/9/2023
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How much are
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Absolute burden
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Relative burden
compared to total burden
Who across society is
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Attribution by disease,
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Impact across
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October 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
ojected “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) ending stocks – which began on September 1, 2018 – are
projected to be a record high 885 million bushels (mb), more than double the previous 11 year high of 438 mb
in “old crop” MY 2017/18. Percent ending stocks‐to‐use are projected to be a 32 year high (since the farm
crisis years of MY 1985/86 – 1986/87) of 20.74% up sharply from 10.20% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. Although
the U.S.‐China trade dispute is having a negative impact on U.S. soybean demand and price prospects, large
supplies of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are having a dominant negative affect on U.S. soybean
market prices – especially during harvest 2018 (Table 1, Figure 6).
“Unknown #1” – The Strength of U.S. Soybean Exports Through Summer 2019: The imposition by the
Chinese government of a 25% tariff on U.S. soybean imports into their country has had a decidedly negative
impact on U.S. soybean market prices over the past months. As a result, the USDA has lowered its projection
of U.S. soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19 to 2.060 bb – down 3.2% from 2.129 bb in U.S. soybean
exports in “old crop” MY 2018/19. In terms of actual shipments of U.S. soybeans to date, U.S. soybean exports
are running “on pace” to meet these marginally lower USDA projections for the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing
year which began on September 1, 2018, but are markedly behind year ago levels of shipments and forward
purchases.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports that for the week ending October 18th the U.S. shipped
40.8 mb of soybeans for export, up marginally from the pace of 40.7 mb per week to meet the USDA’s forecast
of 2.060 bb in U.S. soybean exports for “new crop” MY 2018/19 which began on September 1st (Figure 8).
Total shipments of 226.8 mb through October 18th were 11.0% of the USDA projection of 2.060 bb in “new
crop” MY 2018/19, with 13.5% of the marketing year complete (i.e., 7/52 weeks). This total of U.S. soybean
shipments as of October 18, 2018 are down 35% from year ago levels.
In terms of forward purchases, the USDA reports that an additional 546.8 mb of U.S. soybeans have been
“bought ahead” for export as of October 18th. Adding the shipments‐to‐date of 226.8 mb and forward
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purchases of 546.8 mb together, total shipments and purchases amount to 773.6 mb, equal to 37.55% of the
USDA’s projection of 2.060 bb for “new crop” MY 2018/19, with 13.5% of the marketing year complete (i.e.,
7/52 weeks). This total of shipments and purchases of U.S. soybeans as of October 18, 2018 are down 26%
from year ago levels.
While U.S. soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19 to China of 7.7 mb are down 96.7% from 235 mb
(down 20.8%) from a year ago through October 18th, U.S. exports to all other countries of 219.4 mb in “new
crop” MY 2018/19 are up 88.65% from 116.3 mb or 24.8% over a year earlier. Among the countries that have
tangibly increased U.S. soybean imports from a year ago are some in the European Union (i.e., Germany, Italy,
the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom), Japan, Taiwan, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Argentina, Canada, Mexico, and Peru.
“Unknown #2” – The Size of South American Soybean Production in Early‐Mid 2019: With an opportunity
to sell soybeans to China given their distinct preference for soybeans from non‐U.S. sources, key South
American soybean producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil have reported plans to increase soybean
plantings for their 2019 crops. In Brazil, initial estimates from private sources and the USDA are for a 1.0%
increase in production to 120.4‐120.5 million metric tons (mmt), up from the USDA estimate 119.8 mmt in
2018. Of course weather risks / threats to South American 2019 production will have to be dealt with over the
coming months. However, current intentions are for South American soybean production to increase in 2019
– which if it actually happens would further negative prospects for U.S. soybean prices in “new crop” MY
2018/19 (Figure 14).
Planting of the South American soybean crop has already began – starting in late fall 2018 here in the
United States. This means that U.S. corn and soybean producers will have some amount of information on
2019 South American crop and market prospects when they make crop planting decisions in late winter – early
spring 2019 here in the United States. All else being equal, anticipated 2019 South American acreage trends
may lead U.S. farmers to lower their 2019 U.S. soybean plantings and to raise their 2019 U.S. corn plantings.
2. Other Factors to Consider in Soybean Market Outlook
Prior to the escalation of the U.S.‐China trade dispute, U.S. soybean market prospects where described as
“neutral‐to‐cautiously optimistic” for the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year. Now with the uncertainty and
potential negative impacts of 25% soybean import tariffs by China against U.S. soybeans, and a record large
2018 U.S. soybean crop being harvested, the “narrative consensus opinion” of the market has turned
pessimistic price‐wise, which has been reflected in “new crop” NOVEMBER 2018 Soybean futures (Figures
15abcd).
NOV 2018 Soybean futures declined from a high of $10.43 ¾ on May 30th down to a low of $8.12 ¼ per
bushel on September 18th (Figure 1). Since then, NOV 2018 Soybean futures have increased to a high of $8.92
on October 15th before declining again to a close of $8.33 ½ on Tuesday, October 30th.
3. Kansas Cash Soybean Prices & Basis Bids
Cash soybean price bids on Tuesday, October 30th in Central Kansas at major terminal elevator locations
were in the range of $7.04 ½ to $7.23 ½ per bushel ($1.29 to $1.10 under NOV 2018 CME soybean futures). At
Topeka and Atchison in Northeast Kansas, cash prices were both at $7.58 ½ per bushel ($0.75 under NOV
2018). These Central and Northeast Kansas prices on October 30th are down substantially from $9.88 ‐ $9.93
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($0.35 to $0.30 under JULY 2018 soybean futures) on May 30th. Cash soybean bids at Kansas soybean
processing plants in Emporia and Wichita on October 30th ranged from $7.63 ½ to $7.68 ½ per bushel ($0.70 to
$0.65 under NOV 2018) – down substantially from May 30th when prices ranged from $9.86 ($0.37 under JULY
2018) to $9.93 ($0.30 under) (Figure 2).
In Western Kansas cash soybean bids at major grain elevators on October 30th ranged from $6.85 to $7.09
per bushel ($1.49 to $1.25 under NOV 2018), down substantially again from $8.88 ($1.35 under JULY 2018
futures) to $9.23 ($1.00 under) on May 30th.
4. Reviewing South American Export Competition in “Old Crop” MY 2017/18
Soybean market signals from South American export competitors Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay have
improved in recent months as a result of the U.S.‐China trade dispute (Figures 13‐14). Serious drought had
caused Argentina soybean production to decline by 31.3% from a USDA estimate of 55.0 million metric tons
(mmt) in 2017 down to 37.8 mmt in 2018, and cut projected Argentine soybean exports by 70.1% to 2.1 mmt
in the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year (MY) which ended on August 31st. Argentina soybean meal exports
were 19.4% lower (25.25 mmt) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down from 31.3 mmt in MY 2016/17.
However, Brazilian soybean production was higher – offsetting Argentina’s declines to a degree. Brazil is
estimated by the USDA to have produced a record high 119.8 mmt of soybeans in year 2018, up 4.5% from the
previous record of 114.6 mmt in year 2017. Brazilian soybean exports are estimated to have been 76.2 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2017/18 (ending August 31st), up 20.7% from 63.1 mmt in MY 2016/17. Brazil soybean meal
exports are projected to be 16.8% higher (16.1 mmt) in MY 2017/18, up from 13.8 mmt in MY 2016/17.
Paraguay soybean production is estimated to be down marginally – providing a neutral influence to the
market. Paraguay is projected by the USDA to have produced 9.81 mmt of soybeans in year 2018 – down
moderately from 10.34 mmt in year 2017. Paraguay soybean exports are estimated to have been 6.25 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2017/18 (ending August 31st), up 2.0% from 6.13 mmt in MY 2016/17.
These three South American countries are the main competition in global soybean export markets for the
United States. Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are forecast to comprise 54.0% (76.3 mmt) of estimated World
soybean exports (147.4 mmt) in “old crop” MY 2017/18. The U.S. is estimated to have made up 37.8% (57.95
mmt) of World soybean exports for MY 2017/18, with other countries making up the remaining 8.2% (13.15
mmt) (Table 3).
The trade dispute between the U.S. and China has “pushed” Chinese soybean export purchases toward
Brazil and Argentina and away from the U.S. at least temporarily until the matter is either settled OR
exportable South American supplies are eventually no longer available in fall 2018. There has been both
negative and positive news coming from these negotiations to date, with any final agreement still to come.
5. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Projections for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
The USDA provided a forecast of U.S. soybean supply, demand, and prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 In
the October 11th USDA WASDE report. Based on 2018 U.S. soybean production projections 89.145 million
acres (ma) planted, 88.348 ma harvested, and 2018 U.S. soybean average yields of 53.1 bu/ac., the USDA
forecast 2018 U.S. soybean production to be 4.690 bb. This 2018 forecast of a record high 4.690 bb in U.S.
soybean production would be up from the previous record of 4.411 bb in 2017, and the 2nd highest amount of
4.296 bb in 2016 (Table 1, Figures 4‐5‐6).
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Total Supplies of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to be a record high 5.153 bb, based
on 438 mb in beginning stocks, 4.690 bb in production, and 25 mb in imports. This amount is up from the
previous record highs of 4.734 bb and 4.515 bb in U.S. soybean Total Supplies in “old crop” MY 2017/18 and
MY 2016/17, respectively (Table 1, Figure 6).
Soybean crush in “new crop” MY 2018/19 is forecast to be a new record high of 2.070 bb – to be driven by
expected ongoing domestic usage for livestock feed and ongoing strength in U.S. soybean meal exports (Table
1, Figures 7 & 9ab). This would be up 15 mb in U.S. soybean crush from the previous record of 2.055 bb in “old
crop” MY 2017/18.
Exports of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to be 2.060 bb – down previous record
highs of 2.129 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 and 2.166 bb in MY 2016/17 (Figures 8‐9‐10). See the previous
discussion on U.S. soybean export prospects in section #1 above.
Seed usage of U.S. soybeans is projected to be 103 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, with
Residual use forecast at 34 mb. While seed use of 103 mb is forecast to be down slightly from 104 mb in “old
crop” MY 2017/18, residual use of 34 mb is up from 8 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Table 1, Figures 9ab).
Total Use is projected to be a near‐record high of 4.268 bb – down 28 mb from the previous record high of
4.296 bb last year (Table 1, Figures 9ab).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19, ending stocks are projected to
be a record high 885 mb, with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.74% – both up from 438 mb (10.20% S/U) in
“old crop” MY 2017/18 (Table 1, Figures 9ab & 10ab‐11).
United States’ soybean prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 are projected in the range of $7.35‐$9.85
(midpoint = $8.60 /bu) – with the midpoint projection being down $0.73 /bu from $9.33 /bu in “old crop” MY
2017/18 (Table 1, Figures 10ab‐11). This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
6. Alternative KSU Soybean Forecast Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios to the USDA’s forecast for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices are
presented for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Table 1a, Figure 10). These projections show how varying 2018 U.S.
soybean export‐use and production scenarios could affect U.S. soybean supply‐demand and price outcomes in
“new crop” MY 2018/19. Probability‐weights are added to reflect judgements about how likely each scenario
is to occur in “new crop” MY 2018/19, i.e., during the September 1, 2018 through August 31, 2019 time period.
#1 ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Soybean Exports” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions: 89.145 ma planted, 88.348 ma harvested, 53.1 bu/ac yield, 4.690 bb production, 5.153 bb
total supplies, 2.070 bb domestic crush, 1.870 bb exports (down 200 mb from USDA’s forecast), 4.068 bb total use
(down 200 mb from USDA’s forecast), 1.085 bb ending stocks (up 200 mb from USDA’s forecast), 26.67% Stocks/Use (up
from the USDA’s forecast of 20.74%), & $8.40 /bu U.S. soybean average price (down from the USDA’s forecast of $8.60);
#2 ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Soybean Exports” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (10% probability):
Assumptions: 89.145 ma planted, 88.348 ma harvested, 53.1 bu/ac yield, 4.690 bb production, 5.153 bb
total supplies, 2.070 bb domestic crush, 2.270 bb exports (up 200 mb from USDA’s forecast), 4.468 bb total use
(up 200 mb from USDA’s forecast), 685 mb ending stocks (down 200 mb from USDA’s forecast), 15.33% Stocks/Use
Page | 5
(down from the USDA’s forecast of 20.74%), & $9.00 /bu U.S. soybean average price (up from the USDA’s forecast of
$8.60);
#3 ‐ KSU “Low 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions: 89.145 ma planted, 88.348 ma harvested, 50.0 bu/ac yield (down from the USDA’s forecast of 53.1
bu/ac), 4.417 bb production (down 273 mb from USDA’s forecast), 4.880 bb total supplies (down 273 mb from USDA’s
forecast), 2.070 bb domestic crush, 2.060 bb exports, 4.268 bb total use, 612 mb ending stocks (down 273 mb
from USDA’s forecast), 14.34% Stocks/Use (down from the USDA’s forecast of 20.74%), & $9.05 /bu U.S. soybean
average price (up from the USDA’s forecast of $8.60).
7. World Soybean Supply‐Demand Prospects
World soybean production of a record high 369.48 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop”
MY 2018/19, up 9.5% from 337.45 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 6.1% from the current record high of
348.12 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13). The “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year begins September 1, 2018
and continues through August 31, 2019. World soybean total supplies of 466.13 mmt in “new crop” MY
2018/19 are forecast to be up 7.4% from 434.13 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 8.8% from 428.54
mmt in MY 2016/17.
World soybean exports of a 157.40 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up 2.8% from 153.12
mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 6.8% from 147.36 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13). China is expected to
continue to be the key World soybean importer in the coming marketing year, although there are signs that
the Chinese are seeking to moderate their annual soybean usage or import increases through changes in
livestock feeding approaches.
Projected World soybean ending stocks of a record high 110.04 mmt (31.17% Stocks/Use) in “new crop”
MY 2018/19 are up from 96.65 mmt (28.70% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, up from the previous record high
96.68 mmt (29.4% S/U) in MY 2016/17, and 80.42 mmt (25.62% S/U) in MY 2015/16 (Figures 13 & 16).
Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) soybean ending stocks of 85.96 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19,
are down 1.1% from 84.73 mmt (22.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and is down from 88.47 mmt (24.5%
S/U) in MY 2016/17.
…
September 21, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
the U.S. soybean average farm price of $9.25 per bushel … days 37.8 days
U.S. Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) $11.30 $12.50 … days 17.3 days
U.S. Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) $8.55 $9.25 …
December 18, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
sharply higher U.S. average
farm prices ($12.00 /bu) than … even higher U.S. average farm prices ($13.25 /bu) than … 4.75%), and lower U.S. average farm prices ($9.40 /bu) than the …
August 1, 2021
Breakout Sessions
retail grocery and widening farm-to-wholesale price spreads … head
profits is the “net marketing margin.” This …