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January 21, 2016
2025
Prices:
Beef cattle, farm $/cwt 152.83 149.01 … 130.59 126.55 121.49
Calves, farm $/cwt 254.58 … 1,633 $1,345 $1,772
Table 1. Net Present Value of Beef Replacements …
December 14, 2017
Farming for the Future Presentations
2017
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 12/11/17’) (http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
Oct …
October 3, 2013
at each stage
– E.g., farm of origin, feed used, age
• … traced from retail shelf to farm of origin
or only to processor … Improving management
• On-farm AND throughout supply chain …
January 1, 2014
Level
Costs per unit and net returns in livestock production … are revealed in Table 3.
Farm Management Guide MF2151
Feeder … Dhuyvetter
Agricultural Economist
Farm Management
Mike D. Tokach
Swine …
January 1, 2014
1 — Revised April 2014
Farm Management Guide MF292
Farrow-to-Finish … Level
Costs per unit and net returns in livestock production … Dhuyvetter
Agricultural Economist
Farm Management
Mike D. Tokach
Swine …
January 1, 2014
Level
Costs per unit and net returns in livestock production … as in the
base budget).
Farm Management Guide MF2153
Farrow-to-Weaned … Dhuyvetter
Agricultural Economist
Farm Management
Mike D. Tokach
Swine …
November 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… quot;New Crop" 2018/19 ($8.42 /bu)
Page | 7
Figure 3a. Net Position of Traders for CME … 10.20% 23.25%
U.S. Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) $9.97 …
December 21, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
n MY 2017/18, and up from 7.17% S/U in MY 2016/17
(Table 1, Figures 12a‐b & 13). This projected supply‐demand balance of U.S. soybeans of 23.25% stocks‐to‐use
in “Current” MY 2018/19 is the highest since 18.62% in MY 2006/07, and the all‐time record high of 28.53%
stocks‐to‐use in MY 1985/86 during the U.S. farm crisis years.
No. 2 Factor – Uncertain U.S.‐China Trade Relations
As of this writing, a “truce” has been declared in what had been the ongoing trade conflict between the
United States and China, with the removal of the 25% tariff that the Chinese had placed on U.S. soybean
imports. On December 12th it was announced that companies from China had made their first purchases of
U.S. soybeans since they imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. soybean imports into their country in July 2018, with
more purchases made by Chinese interests since then.
As a result of these ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China, the USDA lowered its projection
of U.S. soybean exports in “Current” MY 2018/19 from 2.060 bb in the October 2018 WASDE report down to
1.900 bb in the November 8th and December 11th WASDE reports. This projection of 1.900 bb is down 10.8%
from 2.129 bb in U.S. soybean exports in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Table 1, Figures 10a‐b).
During the September 1st through December 13th period China bought and physically imported only 12.5
mb of U.S. soybeans, down 98.1% from 660.7 mb in China purchases from the U.S. for the same period a year
earlier. Massive switching of soybean import sources has occurred among the World’s soybean purchasing
countries, with China purchasing almost exclusively from Argentina and Brazil at higher prices in order to avoid
buying soybeans from the U.S.. This action on the part of the Chinese drove up South American prices, and
Page | 2
caused other countries to then purchase U.S. soybeans at comparatively lower prices by as much as $2.00 per
bushel or more.
During this same period in “Current” MY 2018/19, U.S. exports to all other countries besides China totaled
553.8 mb – being up 95.2% from 283.7 mb to these non‐Chinese buyers at this time a year earlier (Tables 2 &
3). Among the countries that have tangibly increased U.S. soybean imports from a year ago are some in the
European Union (i.e., Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Romania, and the United Kingdom), Japan, Iran,
Israel, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, Canada, Columbia, and Mexico.
However, even with these increased purchases of U.S. soybeans by non‐Chinese countries, Total U.S.
soybean export sales to all countries during the 9/1/2018 ‐ 12/13/2018 period of 566.4 mb were down 41.08%
from 944.3 mb a year earlier during the same period.
No. 3 Factor – Reduced U.S. Soybean Exports
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports that for the week ending December 13th that the U.S.
shipped 566.4 mb of soybeans for export over the first 15 weeks of the “Current” 2018/19 marketing year –
averaging 37.8 mb in shipments per week. This is above the pace of 36.0 mb per week for the remainder
“Current” MY 2018/19 to meet the USDA’s forecast of 1.900 bb in U.S. soybean exports (Figure 9). This
assumes that the pace of U.S. soybean export purchases will remain the same throughout the remainder of the
“Current” 2018/19 marketing year. However, reasons are given below as to why this may not be a reasonable
assumption given the seasonal availability of South American soybean exports anticipated in Spring 2019.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports that an additional 445.5 mb of U.S. soybeans have
been “bought ahead” for export as of December 13th. These forward purchases of U.S. soybeans would be for
shipment yet in “Current” MY 2018/19 – through August 31, 2019. Adding the shipments‐to‐date of 566.4 mb
and forward purchases of 1,011.9 mb through December 13th together, total shipments plus purchases amount
to 1.012 bb, equal to 53.3% of the USDA’s projection of 1.900 bb for “Current” MY 2018/19, with 28.8% of the
marketing year complete (i.e., 15/52 weeks). This total of shipments plus purchases of U.S. soybeans through
December 13, 2018 are down 30.1% from the level of a year ago.
Given a deepening tightness in exportable South American soybean supplies until the availability of 2019
crop supplies in late‐winter and spring months, it is likely that China will purchase substantial quantities of U.S.
soybeans during the mid‐December 2018 through March 2019 period. However, either 1) a breakdown in
U.S.‐Chinese negotiations during that period, or 2) prospects for a large 2019 South American soybean harvest,
may lead to sharply curtailed U.S. soybean exports during March‐April 2019.
No. 4 Factor – The Size of 2019 South America Soybean Production
With an opportunity to sell soybeans to China given their distinct preference for imports from non‐U.S.
sources, key South American soybean producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil have reportedly
increased plantings for their 2019 soybean crops. In Brazil, initial estimates in October from private sources
and the USDA are for a 1.0% increase in production to 120.4‐120.5 million metric tons (mmt), up from the
USDA estimate 119.8 mmt in 2018 (Figure 15).
Weather risks / threats to South American 2019 production will have to be dealt with over the coming
months – with some negative effects on Argentina and Brazil production prospects already having appeared.
However, Current intentions and frankly – market expectations ‐ are for South American soybean production
Page | 3
to increase in 2019 – which would further increase the negative prospects for U.S. soybean prices in the later
part of “Current” MY 2018/19 (Figures 17a‐b).
Impact on U.S. Corn & Soybean Acres in 2019? Planting of the 2019 South American soybean crop started
in late fall 2018, with the later stages of crop development to occur in February‐March 2019. This means that
U.S. corn and soybean producers will have some amount of information on 2019 South American crop
production and market prospects when they make crop planting decisions in late winter – early spring 2019
here in the United States. All else being equal, anticipated increases in 2019 South American soybean acreage
and production prospects MAY lead U.S. farmers to take a more pessimistic view of U.S. soybean market price
prospects for Fall 2019, and cause them to lower their 2019 U.S. soybean plantings and to raise their 2019 U.S.
corn plantings.
No. 5 Factor – The Size of 2019 U.S. Soybean Planted Acres & Production
In its Long Term Agricultural Projections released in fall 2018 the USDA forecast that U.S. soybean planted
acres will decline to 82.500 million acres (ma) in 2019, down from 89.145 ma in 2018, 90.142 ma in 2017,
83.433 ma in 2016, and 82.650 ma in 2015 (Table 1a, Figure 5). The USDA also forecast that 2019 U.S. soybean
production would be 4.090 bb – the 4th highest on record, down from the estimated record high of 4.600 bb in
2018, 4.411 bb in 2017, and 4.296 bb in 2016 (Table 1 & 1a, Figure 7).
With 2019 U.S. soybean plantings to occur in Spring 2019, there is still a sizable amount of uncertainty
about U.S. farmer’s final 2019 planting decisions to come. Factors such as: 1) a potential drought and reduced
production prospects in South America in early 2019, 2) a resumption of normal, non‐conflicting U.S.‐China
trade relations, 3) the impact on farmers’ crop profitability expectations from market loss compensation
payments by the U.S. government to them, or other factors could affect the motivation of U.S. farmers to plant
soybeans in 2019.
The final level of 2019 U.S. soybean plantings will be a significant factor affecting U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price prospects for calendar year 2019 and for “next crop” MY 2019/20.
2. Other Factors to Consider in Soybean Market Outlook
a …
May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
World & World‐Less‐China Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks‐to‐Use
World Ending Stocks & % Stocks/Use
Record large carryover ending stocks of 281.89 mmt (37.91% stocks‐to‐use) from “old crop” MY 2017/18
have upheld total World supplies and projected ending stock balances – which are projected to be 275.61
mmt (37.29% stocks‐to‐use) in “current” MY 2018/19.
Percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 37.91% in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are a record high in the era since the
early 1970s, while 37.29% stocks/use in “current” MY 2018/19 are the 2nd highest since the U.S. farm crisis
years of the mid‐1980s, and the 3rd highest since the early 1970s (Figures 13, 14a‐b & 15a‐b). World
World‐Less‐China Ending Stocks & % Stocks/Use
Considering World wheat ending stocks adjusted for Chinese reserves (i.e., “World‐Less‐China”) provides a
much tighter picture of “accessible” or “available” World wheat supply‐demand balances than the aggregate
“World” measure. “World‐Less‐China” wheat carryover ending stocks are calculated to be 135.61 mmt in
“current” MY 2018/19 – a five (5) year low.
This estimate of 135.61 mmt in World‐Less‐China ending stocks in “current” MY 2018/10 is down from a
record high of 150.62 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from the range of 143.67 – 148.00 mmt over
previous three marketing years. World‐Less‐China wheat ending stocks fell to 124.48 mmt in the tight stocks
year of MY 2012/13, and 130.56 mmt for the following year in MY 2013/14. Chinese wheat ending stocks
comprised 49.2% of total World ending stocks of 275.61 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19, and 53.4% of World
wheat stocks of 281.89 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 15ab).
“World‐Less‐China” percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use are estimated to be an 11 year low of 22.08% in
“current” MY 2018/19 – down from 24.19% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and 23.77% in MY 2016/17. This
compares to aggregate World Stocks‐to‐Use of 37.29% in “current” MY 2017/18, a record high of 37.91% in
“old crop” MY 2017/18, and 35.49% in MY 2016/17.
7 …
September 16, 2019
KFMA Research
An Analysis of 2018 Kansas Farm Management Association
Cow-Calf … An Analysis of 2018 Kansas Farm Management Association Cow-Calf … provide detailed and useful farm management analysis for cow-calf …