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October 1, 2018
2018 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Oilseeds)
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat vs Other Crops
More Grain MarketEvents to Anticipate….
3) 2019 … More Grain Market Events to Anticipate….
5) 2019 …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
transition planning, but other issues are also present … addressed with careful planning. Other issues require the proper … of transfer taxes.
Other changes that influence estate …
February 23, 2023
Ag Law Issues
strengthening existing provisions. Others are looking at the issue … transfers any interest,
other than a security” in agricultural … purchase price paid, or
other consideration given, for …
March 21, 2020
Price Risk Management
been
marketed before this event. To approximate this, the … authors of this publication and other K-State agricultural economics … about this publication and others, visit AgManager.info.
K-State …
February 18, 2022
Livestock Insurance
option.
There are a few other considerations. A producer … https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk-and-profit-conference/previous-conference-
proceedings/2018-risk-and-profit-conference/11 … about this publication and others, visit AgManager.info.
K-State …
August 1, 2022
Breakout Sessions
How did you start into farming?• What events has shaped the operation?• … Who has the interest, willingness, and ability to own and operate the farm/ranch? • What role will other family members play in the transition?
Identify who needs to be involved continued• … Facilitates meetings with other professionals
The Office of Farm and Ranch Transition
• …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
How did you start into farming?• What events has shaped the operation?• … Who has the interest, willingness, and ability to own and operate the farm/ranch? • What role will other family members play in the transition?
Begin family collaboration
• … Facilitates meetings with other professionals
AgKansitions
• …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
situation in MY 2007/08 compares to projections of 258.3
mmt ending stocks and 35.1% ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18. The present “large
crop‐over supply” situation in World and U.S. wheat markets have a prevailing negative influence on U.S. and
World wheat prices.
However, the broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be
“obscuring” at least a couple of other important market issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in
the World is plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor helps exports of
U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good quality) relative to World wheat export competitors.
Second, while the aggregate supply of wheat in World markets has grown, the supply of wheat in the “World
Less China” is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” in “next crop” MY 2017/18. “World Less
China” wheat percent stocks‐to‐use have declined to the tightest level since at least MY 2008/09 when
average U.S. wheat cash prices averaged $5.70 /bu. If this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to
noticeably tighter global supplies of available exportable wheat occurring in coming months, it would likely
have a positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in “next crop” MY 2017/18.
However, unless there is a change in the broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market away from
aggregate global supplies to available “World Less China” supplies – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly in later 2017. Also, ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate continues to be a
negative factor limiting the competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports in World markets. These factors
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together have resulted in higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and have caused U.S.
and Kansas wheat cash prices to still be only $0.30 /bu above the marketing loan rate in many Kansas locations
in mid‐May 2017 (after earlier having to fallen below loan rates in Fall 2016).
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: The USDA released their grain
market supply‐demand and price projections for “next crop” MY 2017/18 in the May 10th World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. United States’ wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059
million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in “current” MY 2016/17. Harvested acres are forecast to be 38.500
ma (83.59% harvested‐to‐planted) – down from 43.890 ma a year ago. The 2017 U.S. average wheat yield is
projected at 47.2 bu/ac, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/acre.
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2017 is forecast to be 1.820 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015.
Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.105 bb (down from 3.400 bb in “current” MY 2016/17),
with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.241 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
The USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks to be 914 million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year
ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 41.7% S/U (vs 51.7% last year and 50.0% the previous year). United
States’ wheat prices are projected to average $4.25 /bu – up from $3.90 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down
from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that
these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 82.50% harvested‐to‐planted, 37.999 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.786 bb production, 3.070 bb total supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 180 mb feed
& residual use, 2.200 bb total use, 870 mb ending stocks, 39.6% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes the following for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. Planted acres of 46.059 ma are associated with 39.334 ma harvested (82.50% harvested‐
to‐planted), 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.786 bb production, 3.070 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 180 mb
feed & residual use, 2.350 bb total use, 720 mb ending stocks, 30.6% S/U, & $5.10 /bu U.S. wheat average
price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Planted acres of 46.059 ma, 80.60% harvested‐to‐planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low
yield, 1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 950 mb exports, 125 mb feed & residual use, 2.095 bb total
use, 674 mb ending stocks, 32.17% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
production problems and
supply prospects in Europe, northwestern Africa, parts of the Black Sea region, south Asia/India, and parts of
Argentina, b) geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity
markets, and c) spillover impacts into grains and other commodities from volatile World economies, and
financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation currently existing in World and
U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports and
overall usage, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA lowered projected U.S. wheat exports
and raised ending stocks by the same amounts in its supply‐demand forecasts for U.S. wheat in the “current
crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million
bushels (mb) of exports (down 25 mb), 1.958 bb of total use (down 25 mb), 966 mb ending stocks (up 25 mb),
and 49.34% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 47.45% in January to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10).
A price range of $4.90‐$5.10 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu – the lowest U.S.
wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA
provided a forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand for “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning June 1,
2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 53.0 million acres (ma) – down 1.644 ma from 2015.
Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 44.9 ma would be down 2.194 ma vs 2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S.
wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.060
bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with KSU‐adjusted MY 2016/17 total supplies of 3.151 bb (up from 2.924 bb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16). With “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.168 bb, and KSU‐adjusted ending
stocks of 983 mb (45.34% S/U), U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be $4.40 /bu – down from $5.00
/bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16.
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KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Compared to the USDA forecast, Kansas State
University (KSU) forecasts for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are a combination of lower 2016 wheat planted and
harvested acres, trendline yields, lower production and total supplies, lower exports and feed use, higher
ending stocks and percent ending stocks‐to‐use, and even lower prices. The KSU forecast is based on 2016 U.S.
wheat plantings of 50.695 ma – down 3.949 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.690 ma would
be down 3.404 ma vs 2015. With projected trendline yields of 46.0 bu/ac (nearly equal to the USDA’s 2016
forecast), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.010 bb (down from 2.052 bb in 2015), with MY
2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.101 bb (down 50 mb from the USDA projection).
With forecasts of exports at 850 mb (down 50 mb from USDA but still up from 775 mb in “current crop” MY
2015/16) and feed and residual use of 150 mb (down 75 mb from USDA but equal to “current crop” MY
2015/16), “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.043 bb is forecast, and projected ending stocks of 1.058 bb
(51.79% S/U). Based on historic price relationships, U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.25 /bu – down
$0.25 from the USDA’s projection of $4.40 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17, and down from $5.00 /bu in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, $5.99 in MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record $7.77 in MY 2012/13.
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. February 9, 2016 USDA WASDE Report
On February 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – with U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and
price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat runs from 6/1/2015 through 5/31/2016.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH & JULY 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.51 ¾ on January 4, 2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $4.81 ¾ on January 13th, but have
since declined to a close of $4.42 ¼ on Tuesday, February 9th, and $4.42 ½ on Friday, February 12th
before closing at $4.44 ¼ on that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MARCH & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Wheat Market Overview
Hard red winter wheat market prices in the U.S. have weakened considerably since late January
2019. Ongoing weakness in export shipments of U.S. wheat on the one hand, and declining prospects
for future U.S. wheat export sales on the other, have been the main caus …