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June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Rumors exist of
slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other economic or
financial fa …
September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
s occur in late 2015‐2016, grain markets could be volatile, with price direction uncertain to predict.
The development of volatile weather patterns in 2015 such as “El Nino” may cause production problems for
corn and other coarse grains in parts o … ame day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its
August 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World
corn supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2015
and will last through August 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME DEC 2015 & MAY 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2015 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off DEC 2015 corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “very negative” manner to the
information in the August 12th USDA reports, but in the days afterward have trended “first higher then
sideways”. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, August 12th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) DECEMBER 2015
corn futures prices opened at $3.87 ¾ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.57 ½ ‐ $3.93 ½ during the
session, before settling at $3.68 – down $0.19 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.65 ½ on Monday, August 24th to a high of $3.86 ¾ on Tuesday, August 25th to before
closing at $3.75 ¼ on Monday, August 31st.
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2015 & MAY 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts …
September 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
0 to $2.98 per bushel –
above the Finney County marketing loan rate of $2.19 per bushel. When fall harvest begins in earnest it is
possible that cash prices could fall to the loan rate in these areas due to tight local commercial storage.
Other market factors to conside … and 4) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy,
and other commodity markets. For …
March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
s in local Kansas
grain markets, it is a positive sign that corn usage has provided support for prices. Kansas cash corn prices on
have increased since late December, having avoided falling down to USDA loan rate – price support levels
through the recent fall and winter months.
Other factors that could affect …
May 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… nd fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or
financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017 … …
May 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
then 2017 U.S. corn production could be in the range of 13.500 to 13.750
billion bushels (bb) instead of the USDA projection of 14.065 bb or the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
Forecasts by the USDA and other market analysts that endi … nd for corn in
Kansas and nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in
local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that corn usage has not declined, and that Kansas cash
corn prices have enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Other factors that could affect …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
corn market has been less responsive to any 2017 U.S. corn production threats since beginning stocks for “new
crop” MY 2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.340 bb rather than down to 1.000 bb. If this “large stocks
situation” persists through summer 2018, this mitigating and limiting affect will likely hamper future 2018 corn
crop forward pricing prospects as well.
Second, the grain market continues to anticipate that low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong
usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring
2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, at least “moderate” continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Export …
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
prices to date, b) expectations of significantly
tighter foreign stocks and percent (%) stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing
South American corn exports in spring 2018.
Current forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 94.5 million metric tons (mmt) in this
marketing year – versus 98.5 mmt last year ‐ with harvests lasting from February through May. However,
forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production to be 36.0 mmt in this marketing year – versus 41.0 mmt a
year ago ‐ with harvests lasting from March through May. The Argentina production figure is at risk to falling
further. To the degree that 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil is limited by crop weather
issues, there will likely be subsequent support U.S. corn export prospects.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018 …
January 1, 2006
Management
there are legal as well as other items to consider, some
of … that opening be absorbed by other positions or eliminated
altogether … perform those tasks?” In other words, if one of
the tasks …
August 22, 2022
Ag Law Issues
not be deducted
against other income.
The proper characterization … indirect interests in several other LLPs and LLCs. Their ownership … §1.469-5T(e)(3)(i)(B). On the other hand, the taxpayers
argued …