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December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
owever, the USDA maintains its optimism for “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. corn exports
because of a) low U.S. corn prices, b) expectations of significantly tighter foreign stocks and percent (%)
stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing South American corn exports in early 2018.
Early forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 95 million metric tons (mmt) in this marketing
year with harvests lasting from February through May. Early forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production
to be 42 mmt in this marketing year with harvests lasting from March through May. However, dry conditions
may limit 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil – and subsequently support U.S. corn exports.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018 …
May 1, 2014
Production Publications
Because of its importance at the individual farm level and at the policy‐making level, farm
profitability is a topic widely discussed in both the agricultural community and in Washington D.C.
Uncontrollable macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, trade policies, and government
programs/policies impact overall farm profitability. In addition to macroeconomic factors, weather
can have a big impact on farm profitability – a factor all too many Kansas producers are very aware
of in recent years. However, individual producers do have some control of profitability at the farm
level relative to other producers. That is, while …
June 25, 2019
Feeder Cattle Pricing
time and in comparison to other agricultural
derivatives … exceptions for November
and other months … on some of CME Group’s other agricultural products—such …
August 3, 2016
Livestock Insurance, Breakout session presentations
Drought is significant: major event 1 year in 5?
How much land are we talking about?
15.5 million acres of permanent pasture
308,000 acres of woodland pastures
2.2 million acres of alfalfa, tame & wild hay
18.0 million acreseligible for PRF
Source: 2012 Census of Agriculture
How much is 18 million acres? How many are insured?
Crop …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
World Soybean Total Supplies of 367 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 341 mmt in “current year”
MY 2013/14, and up from 321 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82 mmt (29.3%
S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.0 mmt (24.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and up from
57.0 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
February 2, 2024
Recent Videos
Additional cost• ARC• Other types of risk management used
2022 – … You can go a few years with no indemnity
3. Variation in payouts
Source: https://agmanager.info/crop‐insurance/kansas‐crop‐insurance‐maps
Note: Washington Co. has relatively high/stable yields compared to many other KS counties/crops
3. Variation in payouts
Source: https://agmanager.info/crop‐insurance/kansas‐crop‐insurance‐maps
SCO/PLC vs ARC – …
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
SCL were implemented, and other changes intended to enhance … application of ledger and other provisions. “Other
provisions” are not necessarily … it provides producers and other
market participants with …
February 1, 2008
Water Policy
or place monetary value on other
benefits of water conservation … management professionals, and other stakeholders will be used … scale being analyzed. In other words, if analysis is performed …
July 1, 1996
Section 2: Considering Cooperatives
farm/ranch operation or in other ways. A negative
net present … reasonable to
expect.
Other cooperatives distribute net … membership investment to other investments with similar …
September 2, 2022
Ag Law Issues
financial statement income. In other words,
it is a 15% tax on … exchange for cash or property other than the corporation’s … stock rights, as well as any other “economically similar” …