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May 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
p from 1,117 mmt in “current year”
MY 2012/13, and up from 1,003 mmt in MY 2011/12. Projected World corn ending stocks of 181.7 mmt
(18.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 168.4 mmt (17.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and
up from 138.2 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2011/12. Forecast total MY 2014/15 corn production for major export
competitors Brazil (74.0 mmt – down 1.0) and Argentina (26.0 mmt – up 2.0) is projected to be 1.0% higher in
the coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in
World grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El
Nino event beginning in mid‐2014. Ongoing geopolitical problems in the Black Sea region is reported to have
not had an appreciable impact on the availability of Ukraine corn to World markets, but would be a disrupting
market factor in World corn and coarse grain markets if it did so. …
March 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
begin selling their 2013 crops in storage “en mass”, or some combination of
crop weather‐development factors negatively affect the 2014 U.S. corn crop and/or World geopolitical events
bring volatility to grain markets, there still seems to be limits as to how high U.S. cash corn prices can move.
U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand for “Current” 2013/14: The USDA left unchanged its forecast 2013 U.S. corn
production at a record high 13.925 billion bushels (bb) – up from 10.780 bb in 2012. The forecast of “current”
MY 2013/14 total supplies of 14.781 bb was also unchanged, while forecasts exports of 1.625 bb and total use
of 13.325 bb were both raised 25 mb due to strong export shipments and forward sales to date in the current
marketing year. As a result, “current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks were projected to be 1.456 bb – down 25 mb
from February, and down 336 mb from December 2013, but still up from 821 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
Projected ending stocks‐to‐use of 10.9% for “current” MY 2013/14 has continued to trend lower on a monthly
basis since a projection of 14.7% in the November 2013 WASDE, but is still up sharply from 7.4% for “last
year’s” MY 2012/13 and 7.9% in MY 2011/12. U.S. average corn prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are forecast
to be in the range of $4.25‐$4.75 / bu, down from a record high $6.89 /bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
USDA U.S. Corn Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: Based on projections from the Feb. 21 USDA
Agricultural Outlook Conference, with small adjustments made in the beginning stocks estimate, forecast 2014
U.S. corn production and “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐demand and price scenarios are: 92.0 ma planted,
84.6 ma harvested, 165.3 bu/ac yields, a 13.985 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.380 bb total use, 2.086 bb ending
stocks, 15.6% S/U, & ≈$3.90 average price per bu.
KSU U.S. Corn Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn production and “next
crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐demand and price scenarios are: a) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of
90.0 ma planted, 81.9 ma harvested, 154.4 bu/ac yields, a 12.645 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 12.775 bb total use,
1.366 bb ending stocks, 10.7% S/U, & $4.30‐$5.30 ($4.80 average) /bu; b) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario:
60% prob. of 92.5 ma planted, 84.2 ma harvested, 159.4 bu/ac yields, a 13.421 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.275
bb total use, 1.632 bb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $3.75‐$4.75 ($4.25 average) /bu; and c) KSU “High
Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 95.0 ma planted, 86.5 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yields, a 14.221 bb 2014
U.S. corn crop, 13.650 bb total use, 2.057 bb ending stocks, 15.1% S/U, & $3.40‐$4.40 ($3.90 average) /bu.
World Corn: World corn total supplies of 1,102 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 996 mmt in “last
year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 1,015 mmt in MY 2011/12. Projected World corn ending stocks of 158.5
mmt (16.8% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 134.7 mmt (15.6% S/U) in “last year’s” MY 2012/13,
and up from 132.8 mmt (15.0% S/U) in MY 2011/12. Corn production in major export competitors Brazil and
Argentina is projected to be lower in the coming year in favor of increased soybean production. Conversely,
corn production in China and Ukraine are projected to be sharply higher in the coming year – injecting a
degree of caution on U.S. corn market prospects for both the remainder of “current” MY 2013/14 and for
“next crop” MY 2014/15. …
April 29, 2024
Recent Videos
establishes a higher floor than other minimum price alternatives … because of a forming La Nina event in the
Pacific Ocean. (IRI …
May 29, 2024
Recent Videos
establishes a higher floor than other minimum price alternatives … because of a forming La Nina event in the
Pacific Ocean. (IRI …
July 11, 2025
International Grain Markets
and
demand reports, and other agricultural news: https://agtodayksu.libsyn.com … corn exports increase while other commodities show mixed results … 69
OTHER MARKETS …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,815 FARM UNITS plus 463 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,278 … Income output. Income for
other livestock and crop items … Crop Enterprises:
Total Other Income: Summation of: Landlord …
January 11, 2021
Feeder Cattle Pricing
lb. Average daily gain and other beef farm management
estimates … 95% confidence level. All other average unhedged cash prices … statistically different from each other in the same location or across …
Annual Book
2,288 FARM UNITS plus 766 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 3,054 … 2007, net incomes in the other four associations increased … the higher fuel expense, other
machinery and equipment …
Annual Book
2,337 FARM UNITS plus 709 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 3,046 … sum of livestock, crop, and other income computed on an
accrual … income. Extreme weather events,
wide ranging opportunities …
Annual Book
2,326 FARM UNITS plus 761 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 3,087 … sum of livestock, crop, and other income computed on an
accrual … income. Extreme weather events,
wide ranging opportunities …