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Acreage
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2008 Annual … 5 FARMS … 17 FARMS
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Acreage
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2008 Annual … 41 FARMS … 72 FARMS
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Acreage
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2009 Annual … 9 FARMS … 14 FARMS
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Age of Operator
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2007 Annual … 10 FARMS … 16 FARMS
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Acreage
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2007 Annual … 50 FARMS … 48 FARMS
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Age of Operator
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2008 Annual … 6 FARMS … 11 FARMS
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Acreage
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2008 Annual … 42 FARMS … 47 FARMS
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Age of Operator
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2009 Annual … 9 FARMS … 7 FARMS
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Acreage
Kansas FarmManagement Associations
2009 Annual … 42 FARMS … 45 FARMS
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March 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… … ecent years / months to a La Nina weather pattern with
an increased likelihood of hot, dry crop production conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt in the summer of 2016
could bring about swift, dramatic change in U.S. grain market supply‐demand and price prospects, and
improve prospects for grain sorghum profitability (in areas of the U.S. not impacted by drought!). Second,
total use of U.S. grain sorghum has been relatively high in “current crop” MY 2015/16 as low sorghum prices
have helped feedgrain‐using industries to lower their input costs and helped them to improve their
profitability if not limit their financial losses.
Over time the combination of both a) lower production in response to low profits and/or crop production
problems, and b) increased grain sorghum use supported by low grain prices for livestock feed, exports and
grain processing use, are likely work together to bring about a change in the prevailing “large crop – low price”
market scenario in U.S./World coarse grain markets.
USDA Estimate for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made no changes in its estimate of the U.S. grain
sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. sorghum production of
597 mb, and total supplies of 620 mb. Total use is projected to be 555 mb – including food, alcohol and
industrial use of 99 mb, seed use of 1 mb, exports of 325 mb, and feed and residual use of 130 mb. Ending
stocks are forecast at 65 mb (11.71% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – up from 18 mb (4.0% S/U) in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, and 34 mb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. grain sorghum average cash prices are forecast
to be in the range of $3.15‐$3.45 /bu. ($3.30 midpoint) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 versus $4.03 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and $6.33 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: On December 14, 2015 the USDA released preliminary estimates
of its USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections on February 25‐26, 2016. In its December 14th forecasts
the USDA forecast U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year
beginning September 1, 2016, but provided no further specifics in the February 25‐26 meeting.
The USDA projected 2016 U.S. grain sorghum plantings of 7.300 million acres (ma) – down 1.159 ma or 13.7%
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 6.300 ma would be down 1.551 ma vs 2015. With projected
yields of 65.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 410 mb – down sharply from 597 mb
in 2015, and comparable to 433 mb in 2013, and 392 mb in 2012. With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total
use of 415 mb (down from 555 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16), and projected ending stocks of 60 mb
(14.46% S/U), U.S. sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.40 /bu – down $0.05 from the USDA
corn price projection of $3.45 /bu for “next crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $3.30 /bu midpoint estimate for
U.S. grain sorghum “current” MY 2015/16.
Potential KSU 2016 U.S. Sorghum and Corn “Short Crop” Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bu U.S. Corn Crop: If
moderately significant corn production problems were to occur in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a
13.000 bb corn (157.95 bu/ac yield on 82.300 ma harvested), then all else being equal, ending stocks of U.S.
corn for “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.172 bb (8.5% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to increase
to $4.50‐$5.50 per bushel. Grain sorghum prices in the U.S. would likely in the $4.25 to $5.25 per bushel range
for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
World Coarse Grains Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,504.7 million metric tons (mmt) are projected
for “current” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,509.65 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,444.5
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mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World coarse grain ending stocks of 243.1 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 are up marginally from 241.15 mmt (19.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 211.2 mmt
(17.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
…