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September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… ecord high, with percent ending stocks‐to‐use at their highes … yields (down 0.2 bu), 2.136 billion bushels (bb) production (down 12 mb), 3.014 bb total supplies (down
17 mb), 925 million bushel (mb) exports (down 25 mb), 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.164 bb total use (down
25 mb), 850 mb end stocks (up 8 mb), with 39.3% ending‐ …
January 21, 2016
Grain Marketing Presentations
“short” vs “abundant” Stocks/Use
Use = f(PricesUsage affected conversely by “high” … Market”
• Record World Supplies & Usage Forecast in 2015/16
o 3 consecutive … unless
or until World supplies & stocks decline
o U.S. & World Crop …
December 29, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
exports will also trend up to a record high to 152.45 mmt in the “new crop”
2017/18 marketing year – up from previous records of 147.3 mmt last year, and 132.55 mmt two years ago.
World soybean exports have been growing at a 9.4% rate annually since the 2007/08 marketing year.
Third, that World soybean ending stocks would be a record high …
September 27, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
and percent ending stocks‐to‐use to fall since … prices have received at least moderate support. Since World soybean ending stocks of 62.0 mmt
(22.4% S/U … mmt
(22.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14, stocks grew sharply in MY 2014 …
May 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
t export trade would be 4.1% lower than a year ago ‐ with U.S. exports at their lowest
level since MY 2009/10, and c) World wheat ending stocks would be record high, with percent ending stocks‐
to‐use at their highe … ropped to 860
million bushels (mb) (down 20 mb) – down to the lowest level since 2008/09. Taken together with a 5 mb
decline in imports, the USDA raised its forecast of ending stocks to 709 mb (up 25 mb), …
June 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
rade would be
up marginally from a year ago ‐ with a moderate improvement in U.S. exports from the 15 year low in MY
2014/15, and c) World wheat ending stocks would be record high, wi … ecord high, with percent ending stocks‐to‐use at their
highe …
avoided in major World wheat producing and exporting areas in year 2015 and beyond.
The June 30th USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports may provide direc …
October 21, 2015
Grain Marketing Presentations
“short” vs “abundant” Stocks/Use
Use = f(PricesUsage affected conversely by “high” … Market”
• Record World Supplies & Usage Forecast in 2015/16
o 3 consecutive … unless
or until World supplies & stocks decline
o U.S. & World Crop …
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
would be a record high 1,001.7 million metric tons (mmt) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 with
total use of 737.05 mmt (2nd highest behind 739.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
World wheat exports are also projected to trend marginally lower to 179.9 mmt in the “new crop” MY
2017/18 – down from a record high of 182.3 mmt last year, but up from 172.9 mmt two years ago.
World wheat ending stocks are forecast to be a re …
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … r a perspective on how historically large World total wheat stocks and World wheat percent stocks‐to‐use
now are, in M …
February 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
14 marketing year exports for U.S. wheat and subsequently lowered its forecast of U.S. wheat
ending stocks – causing the wheat ma … ear
total supplies to 3.018 billion bushels (bb) (up 10 million bushels or “mb” from January), which is still down
from 3.131 bb the previous year. This forecast is based on imports of 170 mb (up 10 mb), beginning stocks of
718 mb, and 2013 pr …