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May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
World Soybean Total Supplies of 367 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 341 mmt in “current year”
MY 2013/14, and up from 321 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82 mmt (29.3%
S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.0 mmt (24.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and up from
57.0 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
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I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
March 26, 2013
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Mil … – Decision aides, these events, regularly updated
online … 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Mil. Head
C-N-01
02/04/13
-1.6 …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
with black-swan types of events have raised
concerns about … adverse impacts of
such events. However, we advise careful … careful separation of how these events adversely
affected market …
December 3, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and November
10th 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
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56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA left unchanged its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat plantings to 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%)
from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter
(SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4%
from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396
ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW)
wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October projection of total
U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014,
and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring
(HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and
November 10th 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested
acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma
(+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1
and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA maintained its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299 ma in 2014, down 393,000
acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma in 2012. Of this total, 23.14
ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from
20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7%
from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma
of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW) wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in
2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0% from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October projection that total U.S.
other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast.
This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from
12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red
Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
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Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the November 2015 WASDE report the USDA maintained it’s October projection of 2015 U.S. average
wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from 44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac
in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down
from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2
bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels (bb).
This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐
2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA are unchanged
from October but down 84 mb from the September WASDE report, resulting from beginning stocks of 753 mb,
projected 2015 production of 2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1 and Figure 7). Over the last
ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY
2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.969 bb in MY 2011/12,
3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15, and are now projected to be 2.930
bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in MY 2014/15
(the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY 1973/74 and prior to MY
2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 124 mb in
MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt
(1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 26.0 mmt (955 mb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990
(32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
Page | 7
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has followed a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 follows 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 8).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). The USDA’s forecast of U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat for seed use purposes, driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate
U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with consideration for the risk
of possible annual seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 50 mb from October,
down 100 mb from September, 125 mb from August, and 150 mb from July) are down 6.3% from 854 mb in
“old crop” MY 2014/15 – which is down to the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72
prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Over the last ten (10)
marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in
MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 800
mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United
States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical
conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East), and 2) the potential for dry or
adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino”
or an “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until
tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should
occur in late 20 …
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
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I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
Beginning with the September 30, 2015 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains
2015 Summary report and following with its’ subsequent October 9th, November 10th, and December 9th USDA
NASS 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.178 ma (‐3.8%) from 56.822 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In the December 9th NASS Crop Production report the USDA left unchanged
its previous October‐November forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings of 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐
7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma
are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in
2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at
7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4% from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects
there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from
3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: In December the USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October‐
November projections of total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres
(+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma
are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
Also beginning in the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent
October, November, and December USDA NASS 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that
2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385
ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma (+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up
from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: In December the USDA maintained its previous October‐November
forecasts of 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299
ma in 2014, down 393,000 acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma
in 2012. Of this total, 23.14 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from
21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was
projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015,
Page | 6
USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW)
wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in 2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0%
from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October‐November projections that
total U.S. other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous
forecast. This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres
(+1.6%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma
are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the December 9, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production report the USDA maintained it’s October‐November
projections of 2015 U.S. average wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from projections of
44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection
of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1
bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels
(bb). This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the
2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA in December
are unchanged from October‐November, but down 84 mb from the September WASDE report, resulting from
beginning stocks of 753 mb, projected 2015 production of 2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1
and Figure 7). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY
2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11,
2.969 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15, and are
now projected to be 2.930 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15 (the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY 1973/74 and
prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2)
124 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Page | 7
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt
(1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.6 mmt (1,014 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990
(32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 follows a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in
domestic demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop”
MY 2015/16 follows 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 8).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). The USDA’s forecast of U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat for seed use purposes. Seed demand is driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to
plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with
consideration for the risk of possible shortfalls in annual seed wheat production.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 in December are unchanged
from November, but down 50 mb from October, down 100 mb from September, 125 mb from August, and 150
mb from July. This projection of 800 mb in U.S. wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down 6.3% from
854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is down to the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY
1971/72 prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Over the last ten (10)
marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in
MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now a projection of
800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United
States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical
conflicts – such as those between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the
potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the
likelihood of an “El Nino” or an “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer
of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other
market events should occur in late 201 …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 2
predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to p …
October 1, 2008
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
operational goals for the 2001-2003 period: at least 50
percent … default creates a catastrophic event that can wipe out the company … also
triggered payment events for CDS contracts sold on …
Breakout Sessions
From March 1995 through May 2003, O’Brien worked
as the … Director starting in June 2003 before returning to his Extension …
August 1, 2010
Research Papers and Presentations
random due to uncontrollable events (e.g., weather).2
Aggregation … 2005-09), and 7-year average (2003-09). The number of farms … years of data (2005-09 and 2003-09) the importance of
income …