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January 14, 2016
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mil. Head
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1979-90 1990-04 2004-14 2014-15Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock … advantages
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General Sessions
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The relationship between … Cost
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March 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during recessionary … economic stimulant. When these events shift the demand for U.S … 1.00
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June 20, 2016
Financial Management
1
Management Factors: What is Important, Costs, Yields, Prices, or
Production Practices?
Cooper Morris (cooper.h.morris@gmail.com), Elizabeth Yeager (eyeager@ksu.edu), Kevin Dhuyvetter
(kdhuyvetter@elanco.com), and Greg Regier (gregier@ksu.edu).
Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics ‐ June 2016
http://www.agmanager.info/farmmgt/finance/management/MgtFactors05‐14_(Jun16).pdf
This paper analyzes the value and feasibility of farming differently than the local average in Kansas crop
production. It is an update of previous research with the addition of several new variables‐‐workers per acre,
machine costs, and crop input costs‐‐to answer additional questions (Dhuyvetter, Morris, & Kastens, 2011;
Kastens, Dhuyvetter, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004; Nivens, Kastens, & Dhuyvetter, 2002). Farms are broken down by
their characteristics, practices, and management performances in order to identify sources of superior
performance. Do the number of workers per acre explain differences in farm performance? Do machine costs or
crop input costs, relative to averages, have a larger impact on farms’ relative performances? The degree and
consistency of which farms are different than average is also analyzed. To what degree do farms distinguish their
planting intensity from the local average? By how much do the prices received by some farms deviate from the
average price received in a county? Lastly, how consistently farms achieve different than average costs, yields,
prices, and net incomes is analyzed.
This analysis and previous studies have examined farm characteristics and performances over ten‐year
periods going back to the 1992‐2001 period (Nivens, Kastens, & Dhuyvetter, 2002). Since the first study the
estimated impact of farm size and price management increased steadily. The measured impact in this study
deviates from the increasing trend, but farm size and price management continue to be significantly related to
farm performance.
…
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
KS 5.56 2.42 6.59 0.23 3.70 1.67 5.43 36.69 1880 1910 -0.12%
AL 5.23 2.39 8.03 0.08 4.68 1.86 6.63 29.81 1881 1911 -0.12%
AR 6.00 2.43 7.61 0.14 3.97 1.81 5.84 31.92 1882 1912 0.00%
AZ 2.41 0.43 4.77 2.07 3.41 1.17 4.62 8.96 1883 1913 0.20%
CA 3.45 0.70 4.89 0.13 2.19 3.14 5.40 14.33 1884 1914 0.36%
CO 5.41 2.04 6.86 0.21 4.41 1.95 6.45 29.72 1885 1915 0.40%
FL 2.21 0.66 3.30 0.18 5.17 2.53 7.83 19.92 1886 1916 0.64%
GA 4.78 1.59 8.02 0.26 5.25 2.34 7.71 19.82 1887 1917 1.18%
IA 5.76 2.62 6.35 0.34 4.87 1.48 6.42 41.30 1888 1918 1.72%
ID 6.62 3.95 8.17 0.36 4.04 1.14 5.23 48.29 1889 1919 2.20%
IL 4.70 2.38 5.33 0.44 4.94 1.33 6.33 44.66 1890 1920 2.70%
IN 5.39 2.48 6.26 0.22 4.90 1.58 6.56 39.60 1891 1921 2.31%
KY 6.02 3.80 8.26 0.18 4.66 1.21 5.93 45.97 1892 1922 2.09%
LA 4.95 2.81 6.12 0.14 4.25 1.23 5.53 45.98 1893 1923 2.15%
MI 3.44 1.25 5.46 1.31 5.03 1.47 6.57 22.94 1894 1924 2.28%
MN 6.15 3.31 7.23 0.36 5.36 1.30 6.73 45.79 1895 1925 2.50%
MO 6.41 2.89 7.20 0.12 4.96 1.56 6.60 40.21 1896 1926 2.54%
MS 6.64 3.42 9.24 0.17 4.80 1.49 6.36 37.01 1897 1927 2.47%
MT 6.28 3.05 7.80 0.26 4.05 1.50 5.61 39.02 1898 1928 2.42%
NC 4.22 1.53 7.32 0.29 3.97 2.20 6.26 20.90 1899 1929 2.42%
ND 7.10 3.14 7.80 0.26 5.32 1.53 6.93 40.32 1900 1930 2.34%
NE 6.33 3.11 6.85 0.51 5.26 1.25 6.57 45.36 1901 1931 2.02%
NM 5.89 4.07 7.61 0.24 4.35 0.93 5.31 53.57 1902 1932 1.52%
NV 6.37 5.41 7.97 0.33 3.10 0.60 3.71 67.84 1903 1933 1.22%
NY 3.64 1.20 5.26 0.90 4.19 2.02 6.30 22.79 1904 1934 1.33%
OH 4.08 2.11 4.84 0.33 4.74 1.37 6.18 43.57 1905 1935 1.41%
OK 4.39 1.99 5.29 0.15 3.66 1.59 5.30 37.54 1906 1936 1.44%
OR 5.50 2.74 6.92 0.51 4.10 1.45 5.61 39.62 1907 1937 1.44%
PA 1.89 0.74 3.22 0.55 4.73 1.89 6.70 23.06 1908 1938 1.50%
SC 3.68 1.56 5.89 0.22 4.21 1.96 6.25 26.57 1909 1939 1.33%
SD 6.73 3.08 7.85 0.38 5.39 1.49 6.95 39.25 1910 1940 1.36%
TN 5.94 2.39 9.08 0.20 3.84 2.00 5.92 26.34 1911 1941 1.53%
TX 3.40 1.25 5.13 0.24 3.15 2.09 5.30 24.35 1912 1942 1.75%
UT 3.94 1.69 5.43 0.22 3.25 1.85 5.16 31.09 1913 1943 1.87%
VA 3.76 0.91 6.60 0.20 3.57 2.90 6.57 13.71 1914 1944 1.88%
WA 7.15 4.99 8.89 0.59 4.01 0.83 4.87 56.18 1915 1945 1.93%
WI 5.02 2.15 6.94 0.74 4.83 1.73 6.64 30.96 1916 1946 1.96%
WV 4.20 1.22 6.65 0.05 3.25 2.64 5.97 18.39 1917 1947 1.87%
WY 5.69 1.82 7.22 0.14 4.03 2.22 6.33 25.15 1918 1948 1.51%
WY 6.16 1.49 7.68 0.11 3.80 2.73 6.63 19.34 1919 1949 1.02%
39-state 1920 1950 0.56%
average 5.05 2.33 6.70 0.36 4.30 1.73 6.10 33.62 1921 1951 1.16%
1922 1952 1.45%
1923 1953 1.44%
1924 1954 1.46%
1925 1955 1.39%
1926 1956 1.42%
1927 1957 1.59%
1928 1958 1.71%
1929 1959 1.76%
1930 1960 1.91%
1931 1961 2.25%
1932 1962 2.67%
1933 1963 2.89%
1934 1964 2.82%
1935 1965 2.79%
1936 1966 2.84%
1937 1967 2.80%
1938 1968 3.00%
1939 1969 3.20%
1940 1970 3.33%
1941 1971 3.30%
1942 1972 3.07%
1943 1973 3.04%
1944 1974 3.33%
1945 1975 3.52%
1946 1976 3.43%
1947 1977 3.18%
1948 1978 3.22%
1949 1979 3.54%
1950 1980 3.86%
1951 1981 3.92%
1952 1982 4.04%
1953 1983 4.14%
1954 1984 4.24%
1955 1985 4.35%
1956 1986 4.35%
1957 1987 4.35%
1958 1988 4.40%
1959 1989 4.50%
1960 1990 4.59%
1961 1991 4.67%
1962 1992 4.72%
1963 1993 4.76%
1964 1994 4.78%
1965 1995 4.80%
1966 1996 4.79%
1967 1997 4.76%
1968 1998 4.66%
1969 1999 4.55%
1970 2000 4.48%
1971 2001 4.40%
1972 2002 4.33%
1973 2003 4.22%
1974 2004 3.96%
1975 2005 3.78%
1976 2006 3.68%
1977 2007 3.55%
1978 2008 3.42%
1979 2009 3.13%
1980 2010 2.83%
1981 2011 2.62%
1982 2012 2.50%
Data …
February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In early projections for 2016 released in December 2015 the USDA forecast that 2016 U.S. wheat planted
acres would be 53.000 ma. Conversely, KSU projections in February 2016 are for total 2016 U.S. wheat
planted acres to be 50.695 ma, with total planted acres down by the same 7.2% reduction from 2015 as were
indicated for 2016 U.S. winter wheat acres in the January 12, 2016 USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report.
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Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (1973=100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Page | 5
Following from the January 12, 2016 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2016 Crop
Production Summary report in the February 12, 2016 USDA NASS Crop Production report, the USDA’s 53.000
ma projection is down 1.644 ma (‐6.4%) from 54.644 million acres (ma) in 2015, and down from 56.841 ma in
2014, and from 56.236 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In the January 12th USDA 2016 Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA
projected that 2016 U.S. winter wheat planted acres would be 36.629 ma, down 2.832 ma (‐7.2%) from 39.461
ma, down 5.780 ma (‐13.6%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 6.601 ma from 43.230 ma (‐15.2%) in 2013
(Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
The USDA’s December 2015 projection for 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres was 44.900 ma, with a
harvested‐to‐planted acres percentage of 84.7% of 53.000 ma planted. However, the KSU February 2016
forecast of 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres was 43.690 ma, with a harvested‐to‐planted acres percentage of
86.2% on 50.605 ma planted. The USDA’s projection of 44.900 ma 2016 harvested acres is down 2.194 ma (‐
4.7%) from 47.094 ma in 2015, and down from 46.385 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In its December 2015 forecast the USDA projected that 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 45.9 bu/ac, up from
43.6, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high
of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). The February KSU projected 2016 U.S. wheat yield of 46.0 bu/ac
is a trendline forecsast from the 1973‐2015 time period.
USDA Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of USDA projections for 2016 planted
acreage (53.000 ma), harvested acreage (44.900 ma), and yield (45.9 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is
projected to be 2.060 billion bushels (bb). This USDA projection of 2016 U.S. wheat production of 2.060 bb is
up from 2.052 bb in 2015, 2,026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average =
2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
KSU Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of KSU projections for 2016 planted acreage
(50.695 ma), harvested acreage (43.690 ma), and yield (46.0 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected
to be 2.010 bb (Table 1).
Page | 6
Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 (February 9, 2016 WASDE Report, KSU Adjusted
December 14, 2015 Preliminary USDA Outlook Reports & KSU 2016/17 Projections)
Item …
June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Harvested of Planted
Page | 9
given a 45% probability of occurring by KSU estimates, and is down from 2.052 bb in 2015, and 2.026 bb in
2014, and within the 2004‐2013 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb).
By KSU projection estimates, there is a combined 45% likelihood of 2016 U.S. wheat production of U.S.
wheat of approximately 1.920 bb based on KSU acreage assumptions and trend line yields (Table 1). However,
there is also estimated to be a 10% likelihood of a widespread U.S. wheat crop problem occurring – resulting in
low approximate production of 1.753 bb in 2016.
U.S. Winter Wheat Production: In its May 10th NASS Crop Production report the USDA projected 2016 U.S.
winter wheat production to be 1,427,084,000 bushels, or 1.427 bb – up 56.9 mb (+4.15%) from 1.370 bb in
2015, up 49.9 mb (+3.6%) from 1.377 bb in 2014, down 115.8 mb (‐7.5%) from 1.543 bb in 2013, and down
203.3 mb (‐12.5%) from 1.631 bb in 2012.
Of this total amount of 2016 U.S. Winter Wheat production, Hard Red Winter wheat production is
forecast to be 863 mb in 2016, up 4.35% from 827 mb in 2015 and up 16.8% from 739 mb in 2014. Soft Red
Winter wheat production is forecast to be 357 mb in 2016, down marginally from 359 mb in 2015 and
significantly from 455 mb in 2014. White Winter wheat production is projected to be 208 mb in 2016, down
from 219 mb in 2015 and 224 mb in 2014.
Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973‐2015) and USDA 2016 Projection as of May 10, 2016 WASDE, with KSU
Long‐Term Trend Estimate for 2016
31.6
27.3
34.2
39.4
32.7
39.5 …
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
5.00
Page | 9
USDA Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of KSU‐adjusted USDA projections for
2016 planted acreage (49.559 ma), harvested acreage (42.174 ma), and yield (45.9 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.935 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7). This USDA forecast scenario of
1.935 bb is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates, and is down from 2.052 bb in 2015, 2.026 bb
in 2014, and within the 2004‐2013 range of 1.808‐2 …
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
planted acreage projected to be 7.2% vs 2015
USDA Estimate of All U.S. Wheat Acres in 2016 = 51.000 mln ac. (3,644,000 ac or 7.2%)
Page | 7
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum projection is for 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 45.9 bu/ac, up from
43.6, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high
of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). The KSU projection of 2016 U.S. average wheat yields is 46.0
bu/ac, which is a trendline forecast for 2016 from the 1973‐2015 time period.
Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973‐2015) and USDA 2016 Early Projection as of March 9, 2016
USDA Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of USDA projections for 2016 planted
acreage (51.000 ma), harvested acreage (43.400 ma), and yield (45.9 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is
projected to be 1.991 billion bushels (bb). This USDA projection of 2016 U.S. wheat production of 1.991 bb is
down from 2.052 bb in 2015, 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2013 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average =
2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7). The KSU projection for 2016 production of U.S. wheat is
2.010 bb – up 0.01% from the 2016 USDA production forecast of 1.991 bb.
31.6
27.3
34.2
39.4
32.7
39.5 …
June 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Harvested of Planted
Page | 9
Three KSU “Trend Yield” Scenarios (i.e., the KSU “Trend Yield – Moderate $USD” Scenario – 30%
probability, the KSU “Trend Yield – Foreign Crop Problems – Moderate $USD” Scenario – 15% probability, and
the KSU “Trend Yield – Fall 2017 Crop Problems – Moderate $USD” Scenario – 20% probability) with a
combined estimate of 65% probability of occurring assume that 2016 U.S. average wheat yields will be 46.0
bu/ac. This projection is a trend‐line forecast for year 2016 based on all yields over the 1973‐2015 time period.
For this KSU forecast of 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be true, lower yields will need to occur for spring wheat in
the northern states and for soft red winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt – both being a distinct possibility
given the “high temperature” July‐August 2016 weather forecasts for the United States.
U.S. Wheat Production: The USDA forecast in its June 10th WASDE report – based on forecast 2016
planted acreage (49.559 ma), implicit harvested acreage (42.737 ma), and yield (48.6 bu/ac) – that 2016 U.S.
wheat production to be 2.007 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7). This USDA forecast scenario of
2.077 bb is given a 35% probability of occurring by KSU estimates, and is up from 2.052 bb in 2015, and 2.026
bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2013 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb).
By KSU projection estimates, there is a combined 65% likelihood of 2016 U.S. wheat production of U.S.
wheat of approximately 1.920 bb based on KSU acreage assumptions (i.e., 41.737 bb harvested acres and 46.0
bu/ac trend line yields) (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Production: In its June 10th NASS Crop Production report the USDA projected 2016
U.S. winter wheat production to be 1.507 bb – up 136.9 million bushels (mb) (+10.0%) from 1.370 bb in 2015,
and up from 1.377 bb in 2014, down from 1.543 bb in 2013, and down from 1.631 bb in 2012.
In this report, 2016 U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat production is forecast to be 938 mb in 2016, up 13.4%
from 827 mb in 2015 and up 26.9% from 739 mb in 2014. Soft Red Winter wheat production is forecast to be
355 mb in 2016, down marginally from 359 mb in 2015 and down 21.9% from 455 mb in 2014. White Winter
wheat production is projected to be 214 mb in 2016, down from 219 mb in 2015 and 224 mb in 2014.
Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973‐2015) and USDA 2016 Projection as of June 10, 2016 WASDE, with KSU
Long‐Term Trend Estimate for 2016
31.6
27.3
34.2
39.4
32.7
39.5 …