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February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In early projections for 2016 released in December 2015 the USDA forecast that 2016 U.S. wheat planted
acres would be 53.000 ma. Conversely, KSU projections in February 2016 are for total 2016 U.S. wheat
planted acres to be 50.695 ma, with total planted acres down by the same 7.2% reduction from 2015 as were
indicated for 2016 U.S. winter wheat acres in the January 12, 2016 USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report.
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Following from the January 12, 2016 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2016 Crop
Production Summary report in the February 12, 2016 USDA NASS Crop Production report, the USDA’s 53.000
ma projection is down 1.644 ma (‐6.4%) from 54.644 million acres (ma) in 2015, and down from 56.841 ma in
2014, and from 56.236 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In the January 12th USDA 2016 Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA
projected that 2016 U.S. winter wheat planted acres would be 36.629 ma, down 2.832 ma (‐7.2%) from 39.461
ma, down 5.780 ma (‐13.6%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 6.601 ma from 43.230 ma (‐15.2%) in 2013
(Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
The USDA’s December 2015 projection for 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres was 44.900 ma, with a
harvested‐to‐planted acres percentage of 84.7% of 53.000 ma planted. However, the KSU February 2016
forecast of 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres was 43.690 ma, with a harvested‐to‐planted acres percentage of
86.2% on 50.605 ma planted. The USDA’s projection of 44.900 ma 2016 harvested acres is down 2.194 ma (‐
4.7%) from 47.094 ma in 2015, and down from 46.385 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In its December 2015 forecast the USDA projected that 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 45.9 bu/ac, up from
43.6, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high
of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). The February KSU projected 2016 U.S. wheat yield of 46.0 bu/ac
is a trendline forecsast from the 1973‐2015 time period.
USDA Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of USDA projections for 2016 planted
acreage (53.000 ma), harvested acreage (44.900 ma), and yield (45.9 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is
projected to be 2.060 billion bushels (bb). This USDA projection of 2016 U.S. wheat production of 2.060 bb is
up from 2.052 bb in 2015, 2,026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average =
2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
KSU Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of KSU projections for 2016 planted acreage
(50.695 ma), harvested acreage (43.690 ma), and yield (46.0 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected
to be 2.010 bb (Table 1).
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Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 (February 9, 2016 WASDE Report, KSU Adjusted
December 14, 2015 Preliminary USDA Outlook Reports & KSU 2016/17 Projections)
Item …
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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Figure 5. U.S. All Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage (1973‐2016) as of March 31, 2016 USDA Prospective
Plantings Report, with KSU‐adjusted 2016 USDA Harvested Acreage estimate
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum projection is for 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 45.9 bu/ac, up from
43.6, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high
of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). This USDA forecast scenario is given a 40% probability of
occurring by KSU estimates. The KSU projection of 2016 U.S. average wheat yields is 46.0 bu/ac, which is a
trendline forecast for 2016 based on all yields over the 1973‐2015 time period – which is thought to have a
combined 45% probability of occurring. Also by KSU estimates, there is also approximately a 15% likelihood of
a 40 bu/ac low U.S. wheat yield due to some combination of crop production problems.
Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973‐2015) and USDA 2016 Early Projection as of February 26th USDA
Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast, with KSU Long‐Term Trend Estimate for 2016
60.5 …
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Lingering 2018 U.S. Fall Harvest Delays: As of November 25, 2018 the U.S. corn harvest was estimated
to be 94% complete in the 18 major states – compared to the recent 5 year average of 95% completed.
Moderate end of season harvest delays still lingered in states such as Kansas (94% harvested vs 99% 5‐
yr avg.); Nebraska (94% harvested vs 97% average); North Dakota (80% harvested vs 93% avg.); Ohio
(86% harvested vs 93% avg.); Pennsylvania (82% harvested vs 89% avg.); and South Dakota (90%
harvested vs 97% avg.); To complicate matters in these areas, precipitation in the form of snow had
fallen in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and North and South Dakota over the November 19‐
26 period – further slowing harvest in these areas.
The accumulated result of these slow harvest and recent precipitation events will be to delay the final
part of the 2018 U.S. corn harvest to some degree – providing at least moderate uncertainty about final
2018 U.S. corn production and some support for corn prices through the conclusion of the U.S. Fall harvest.
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September 19, 2011
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
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Source: Bureau … Unemployment Rate
9/11/2001
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Forecasted
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September 19, 2011
Swine
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August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
TAX STATEMENTS
Previous year's return …
Tax returns from the previous 3 years may be
required to apply for loans. It is recommended to
keep tax returns for 7 years.
… The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has established a dedicated website
(www.consumer.ftc.gov/topics/repairing‐identity‐theft) to provide individuals
with tips and guidance that they can use in the event of identity theft, the
misuse of checking accounts, the theft of financial documents, or the loss of
debit/credit cards or government‐issued identification.
For example, in the case of a lost credit or debit card, you should do the
following:
…
March 27, 2020
Ag Law Issues
cooperative. In either event a storer of grain fits the … lien has
priority over a previously perfected security interest … might be subordinate to a previously perfected security interest …
May 22, 2020
Farm Profitability, KFMA Research
acres, nearly double the previous record. As prevent plantings … https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk-and-profit-conference/previous-conference-proceedings/2019-risk-and-profit-conference/17 …
October 1, 2008
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
with prices and features previously prohibited by individual … range of loan terms than previously allowed under various
state … a drop of 12 percent from previous year. The U.S. share of …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
pasture.
While each of the previously discussed
methods may be … owners within the region. Previous years’
rates are published … current year’s rates from
previous year’s rental rates. Market …