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September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
systems, the
United States risks becoming less competitive … becoming less competitive and risks losing market access. This … were estimated relative to 2009 average prices and quantities …
September 30, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
by a grant from the USDA Risk Management Agency through … Agency through the
Southern Risk Management Education Center … Councils. These are
non-profit organizations that operate …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
also directs the
Center for Risk
Management Education and … Joe’s
work focuses on risk
management and policy
solutions … innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader …
March 26, 2013
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Mil. Tons
G-NP-22
01/11/13Livestock … and $697/cow
Cow-calf profitability drivers…
• Analysis … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
January 13’: -$138.44/steer …
May 9, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
February 13’: -$174.02/steer … – Decision aides, these events, regularly updated
online … • Examine Feeder Cattle Risk Management Alternatives
• …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
term create negative sales risk, which Srinivasan and Mason … the reformulation.
The risk of density function misspecification … systems issues (Richardson 2009). Their effectiveness has …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
NAIS BENEFITCOST RESEARCH TEAM
JANUARY 14, 2009
ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research team is grateful for financial support provided for this project by the
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), United States Department of
Agriculture. In addition, we sincerely appreciate considerable support and assistance
from Dr. John Wiemers as well as assistance from Dr. David Morris and Mr. Neil
Hammerschmidt. We acknowledge Dr. Clement Ward and Dr. John Lawrence for helpful
comments as peer reviewers of our report as well as helpful suggestions from several
internal reviewers coordinated by APHIS. Furthermore, the research team especially
thanks the large number of industry stakeholders and related professionals, too
numerous to list here, who generously provided considerable amounts of their time
sharing information and views about NAIS in our completion of this project. …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
RISK &PROFIT CONFERENCEMANHATTAN, KANSASAUGUST 17, 2018
Roger … purchase tickets to athletic events at higher education institution• … farmer uses CCC loans?• At-risk rules?• No QBI deduction …
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
Aggregation level: Weighted averages of the PPP of the product groups where weights are the
expenditures on the product groups as established in national accounts
The basket of goods used in the estimation of the PPP is a sample of goods and services used in the
estimation of GDP. Final list is approximately 3,000 consumer goods and services, 30 government
occupations, 200 equipment and 15 construction projects. They also often generate a significant portion
of their domestic public revenues through imposed barriers to trade such as tariffs.
From the foregoing, the prevalence of poverty may be influenced by the changes in the prices of goods
in a country’s basket of goods when the assumption of zero transaction costs and absence of trade
barriers fail to hold. Most developing countries experience significant transaction costs in traded goods
because of their dependence on imports. The extent of the violation of the law of one price is
2
exacerbated by the proportion of consumption that is imported and changing foreign exchange situation
in the country.
Research Question
To what extent do macroeconomic conditions in a developing country influence the prevalence of
poverty? The macroeconomic conditions of interest are exchange rates and inflation, measured by the
consumer price index (CPI). For simplicity purposes, the research question ignores the non‐trivial effect
of population growth on the prevalence of poverty.
The question is important because the performance of intervention projects aimed at reducing poverty
may be adversely affected by inimical macroeconomic conditions over which the projects have no
control. Understanding and measuring the effect of these macroeconomic conditions allow project
managers to make the necessary adjustments to their achievements to help effectively monitor and
evaluate project performance.
Background
Suppose the perfect world where the real exchange rate is constant over time between two countries,
say U.S. and Ghana. Suppose also that a basket of goods produced in U.S. and Ghana were identical and
completely tradable. The law of one price would suggest that net of transportation costs, arbitrage
would insure that the dollar price of the basket is identical between Ghana and the U.S. – this is the
basic theory of PPP determination.
Let us begin with an illustration of the changing PPP measured as national currency per U.S. dollar in the
Euro Zone and the UK (Figure 1). Between 2009 and 2014, UK’s PPP has been increasing while the EU’s
has been declining. This implies that for people living in the UK needed a declining quantity of British
Pounds to purchase the same basket of goods as would be purchased in the U.S. for given price in U.S.
dollars while those living in the Euro Zone needed an increasing quantity of Euros. A declining PPP is,
therefore, an indicator of a worsening economic condition for residents in a particular country.
Let us define the real exchange rate, Q, as follows:
…