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May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.80 ¼ on 5/19/2017
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.38 on 5/19/2017
Page | 4
DECEMBER (DEC) 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.90 ¼ on
April 20, 2016, and $5.90 on June 8, 2016. Then DEC 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to lows of
$4.74 per bushel on August 31st, $4.72 ½ on October 12th, and $4.59 ½ on December 1, 2016. DEC
2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures then traded up to a high of $5.30 ¾ on February 16,
2017. From that February 16th high, DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat futures then traded lower –
down to a low of $4.67 on April 25th before rising to $5.09 on May 2nd before closing at $4.80 ¼ on
Friday, May 19th (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and DEC 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Friday, May 19th was $0.42 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $4.80 ¼ for DEC 2017 less $4.38 for JULY
2017 Wheat), or $0.07042 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from JULY 2017 to DEC 2017 would at
least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.07042 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo storage
cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the May‐July
2017 period. Along this same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
January 11, 2021
Feeder Cattle Pricing
managing feeder cattle price risk is to hedge the transaction … vice versa, subject to basis risk. This practice reduces uncertainty … it can lead to lower net profits at times relative to
an …
January 1, 2013
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … USDA/NIFA under Award Number 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-04
February … large enough capacity for profitable livestock
production, considering …
December 1, 2016
Financial Management
central role in building a profitable farm/ranch business operation … In boom times, when profit margins are positive, cash … future trend. Similarly, when profit margins
evaporate, cash …
August 1, 2018
General Sessions
for 2018 - 2019
2018 KSU Risk &Profit Conference
Manhattan, Kansas
DANIEL … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … HRW wheat $’s in 2018?
o Profits for 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat …
March 26, 2013
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mil. Head
C-N-38
02/04/13
+1.9 … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
12/18/12Livestock … Year
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2010 2012
Mil. Tons
December …
that is contingent on future events• A formal claim follows … house
Conversions
•Traditional to ROTH
•Starting 2010 – allowed to make non deductible … corporation?
Material participation?
At-risk limitations?
AMT adjustments?
Shareholder …
February 16, 2014
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … USDA/NIFA under Award Number 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-05
February … the lease will not take the risk that
the option price is …
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
also directs the
Center for Risk
Management Education and … Joe’s
work focuses on risk
management and policy
solutions … innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader …
August 19, 2016
General Session Presentations
2016 Risk andProfit Conference
General Session … Copyright © 2016 AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved.
A Long‐Term View of Crop Prices:The Landscape Has Changed for US Crop Ag (Risk & Profit Conference. Manhattan, KS. Aug 19, 2016)
Daniel W BassePresident AgResource Company
Daniel W BassePresident AgResourceChicago, IL January 2016
Daniel BassePresident March 2016Bill Tierney, Ph.DChief Economist AgResourceChicago, IL 60606
Copyright © 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved.v …