Search
Displaying 1021 - 1030 of 5631
April 2, 2025
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
at https://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-
data/monthly-meat-demand-monitor-108 … may reflect higher meat and livestock industry cost escalations … AgManager.Info.
https://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-
data/meat-demand-monitor-project …
August 11, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
to compete with wheat for livestock feeding opportunities …
July 19, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand and price projections for the U.S. for “new
crop” MY 2017/18 in the July 12th Crop Production & WASDE reports (Tables 1a‐b).
U.S. wheat plantings are forecast to be 47.821 million acres (ma) in 2018, up from the record low of 46.012
ma in 2017, but down from 50.119 ma in 2016 (Table 1, Figure 5). Harvested acres are forecast at 39.571 ma
in 2018 (82.75% harvested‐to‐planted), up from the record low of 37.586 ma (81.7% harvested‐to‐planted) in
2017, but down from 43.850 ma in 2016 (87.5% harvested‐to‐planted) (Table 1, Figure 5). The 2018 U.S.
average wheat yield is estimated at 47.5 bu/ac, up from 46.3 bu/ac in 2017, but down from the 2016 record
high of 52.7 bu/acre (Table 1, Figure 6).
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2018 is forecast to be 1.881 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.741 bb in 2017,
but down from 2.309 bb in 2016. Projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 total supplies are forecast at 3.117 bb, up
from 3.079 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down from 3.402 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 7).
U.S. Wheat total use of 2.132 bb is forecast for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (up 35 mb from June), up from
1.978 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (down 18 mb from June), and from 2.222 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1,
Figure 8). By usage category, U.S. wheat exports are projected to be 975 mb (up 25 mb from June) in “new
crop” MY 2018/19, and up from 901 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, while being down from 1.051 bb in MY
2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 9 & 10).
CommentaryKSU: U.S. wheat exports fell to 47‐year lows of 778 mb and 864 mb in MY 2015/16 and MY
2014/15, respectively, to levels just marginally above those pre‐“Russian Grain Deal” in 1972. This is more
evidence of the only marginally competitive position that U.S. wheat exports find themselves in among foreign
export competitors in recent years. However, tightening supplies of foreign wheat exporters may cause U.S.
wheat exports to strengthen in the later part of “new crop” MY 2018/19 (i.e., likely fall 2018)
Food Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 965 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up
marginally from 963 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and trending higher from 943 mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1,
Figure 8). Feed & Residual Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 130 mb in “new crop” MY 2018/19 (up 10 mb
from June), up from 50 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (down 20 mb from June), and from 161 mb in MY
2016/17 (Table 1, Figure 8).
CommentaryKSU: With the USDA’s forecast of tighter U.S. corn and total feedgrain supplies along with
higher feedgrain prices, the USDA is anticipating that feeding wheat to livestock will become more
economically viable.
Page | 5
The USDA projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 ending stocks to be 985 mb (46.2% stocks/Use), down from
1.100 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (up 20 mb from June) (55.6% stocks/use), and 1.181 bb in MY 2016/17
(53.15% stocks/use) (Table 1, Figures 11 & 12).
CommentaryKSU: Although only a moderate reduction, the forecast of 985 mb in ending stocks for “new
crop” MY 2018/19 is the lowest in five (5) years since 752 mb (37.3% stocks/use) in MY 2014/15. Still, until
either a major wheat production shortfall or what would now be a “surprise” surge in U.S. wheat exports
occurs, the U.S. will likely remain in the current “large supply – large ending stocks” situation.
United States’ wheat prices are projected to be in the range of $4.50‐$5.50 /bu – averaging $5.00 /bu in
“new crop” MY 2018/19 (down $0.10 /bu from June). This would be up from $4.73 /bu in “old crop” MY
2017/18 (down $0.02 /bu from June), from $3.89 in MY 2016/17, and $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, but still down
from $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15 (Table 1, Figures 11 & 12). CommentaryKSU: It is estimated by KSU that these
USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19 have a 50% probability of occurring.
G. Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …
August 1, 2011
Dairy
farm labor allocated
to livestock, and years included in the … of farm labor devoted to livestock and culling rate were not … percentage of labor allocated to
livestock was positively associated …
August 31, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
September 25, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
2010 through 2011/2012 period. Wheat prices in the United States are
projected to be down to the lowest levels in four years due to limited demand for U.S. wheat exports and for
livestock wheat feeding. Wheat market expectations concur with USDA projections that foreign wheat
supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production in the
Central and Southern plains states. Also, no other major production problems in competing World wheat
exporting countries have yet emerged – at least to the degree that the “large crop‐over supply” situation in
World wheat markets has been affected. That said, there are preliminary concerns emerging about dry wheat
production conditions in Australia, as well as crop quality problems in parts of Europe. The possible negative
impact of military conflict in the Black Sea Region on World wheat exports has at least not yet emerged to an
appreciable degree – but still holds potential to significantly impact wheat markets for at least the next several
months.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: Compared to a year earlier, the USDA projected
lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat usage, an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks and %
stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA’s projected “new crop” market scenario
is: 56.5 million acres (ma) planted, 46.2 ma harvested, 43.9 bu/ac yield, a 2.030 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S.
wheat crop, 2.789 bb total supplies, 900 mb exports (down 25 mb from last month), 2.091 bb total use (up 10
mb), 698 mb ending stocks (up 25 mb), 33.38% ending stocks‐to‐use (up from 31.33% last month), and $5.90
average price per bu. (range of $5.50 to $6.30) – down from $6.30 last month.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐
demand balances and prices are essentially equal to the USDA’s except for the acknowledged possibility of a
“Higher Export” scenario which is as follows: a) “Higher Export” Scenario: 20% prob. of acreage, yields,
production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 150 mb greater U.S. wheat
exports. This would result in 1.050 bb exports (up 150 mb from USDA), 2.241 bb total use (up 150 mb), 548
mb ending stocks (down 150 mb from the USDA), 24.45% S/U (versus 33.38% S/U for USDA), and a forecast
price of $6.75 /bu (up from the USDA midpoint of $5.90).
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 906.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 889.7
mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 855.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks
in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 196.4 mmt (27.7% S/U) are up from 186.5 mmt (26.5% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 175.6 mmt (25.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective these figures can be compared to the historic
World wheat stocks minimum of 129.4 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08. Year‐over‐year increases are
projected for wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for major exporters Argentina (+4.3 mmt), Brazil (+0.9
mmt), Russia (+4.0 mmt), and Ukraine (+0.24 mmt), with decreases forecast for the U.S. (‐7.5 mmt), Australia (‐
0.5 mmt), Canada (‐1.24 mmt), the EU (‐5.9 mmt), India (‐2.9 mmt), and Kazakhstan (‐1.6 mmt). The U.S.
wheat market will now likely focus on the September 30th USDA Small Grains Summary report, and on the
progress that will be made this fall in seeding the U.S. winter wheat crop for 2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. September 2014 USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On September 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15. The “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing
year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015. Information in the upcoming September 30th
USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report will be used in calculating adjustments to “old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S.
wheat usage and ending stocks in the October 10th USDA WASDE report.
No changes were made in projected U.S. wheat production in the USDA National Agricultural Statistical
Service (NASS) September 2014 Crop Production report. The USDA has indicated that revisions in planted
acres of spring and durum wheat may occur in the upcoming USDA NASS Small Grains Summary to be released
on Tuesday, September 30th.
I‐B. Kansas Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Wheat futures contract prices had trended higher from late January to early May 2014 due to a) declines in
2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production prospects compared to the previous year, and b) geopolitical
conflicts in the Black Sea Region between Ukraine and Russia that put at risk and in question that region’s
wheat and coarse grains exports ‐ and ultimately were thought to provide a boost to U.S. wheat export
prospects.
However, since the market high in early May, Kansas hard red winter wheat futures have trended sharply
lower as a) domestic U.S. hard red winter wheat crop prospects improved with adequate moisture and cooler
temperatures in the Great Plains, b) adequate‐to‐favorable weather occurred in the U.S. eastern Corn Belt for
at least “decent” 2014 U.S. soft red winter wheat production, c) major crop production problems were largely
avoided for other major wheat export competitors, and d) the ongoing geopolitical conflict between major
wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea Region did not disrupt the flow of Black Sea wheat
exports into World wheat markets to a significant degree.
In terms of specific price levels, after trading at a low of $6.22 on January 29th, electronic DECEMBER 2014
Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices trended sharply higher up to $8.01 ¼ on March 26th, and up
to $8.62 on May 6th (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas Wheat futures have trended markedly
lower, trading as low as $5.53 ½ on September 22nd and 23rd.
DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices responded to the release of the September 11th USDA
reports by first trading lower on the day of the report, and then continuing to trend lower through September
23rd. DECEMBER 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices opened at $6.15 on Thursday, September 11th
– the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time), and traded in a low‐high
range of $6.01 to $6.15 ¼ during the session before closing at $0.09 ¼ lower for the day at $6.06 ¼ /bu (Figure
1). Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat efutures prices have fallen sharply, declining from a high of
$6.06 ¼ on September 12th down to lows of $5.53 ½ on September 22nd and 23rd, before closing at $5.62 on
September 23rd.
Page | 3
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2014 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 9/23/2014)
The U.S. Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher since mid‐July 2011, but
has trended sharply higher since July 1, 2014 (Figure 2). After trading at 75.91 on July 1, the calculated U.S.
trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 80.1 on September 19th. This trend is significant to the U.S.
wheat market, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it
more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars which
they would use in turn to purchase U.S. wheat exports. Although this is not the only factor that is negatively
impacting U.S. wheat exports at this time, it is a very important one – working against U.S. wheat being an
affordable, competitive alternative in World wheat trade
Figure 2. JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 9/23/2014) …
June 6, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… projection of 180 mb for “current” MY 2013/14.
Feed and Residual Use: The USDA forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 90 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15
– which is down from 110 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and compares to 93 mb in drought‐affected MY
2012/13, and 71 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
The amount of grain sorghum used for livestock feeding has declined over …
March 1, 2012
Basis
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattlebasis.asp … Manhattan, KS. 2012
Livestock Marketing Information Center …