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February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
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of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other
market events should occur in late 201 … In summary, sharply lower wheat prices in “next
crop” MY 2016/17 are projected by the USDA which may help to encourage a modest recovery in U.S. wheat
feeding – even with projections of large supplies of low cost U.S. corn and grain sorghum available.
Total U.S. Wheat Use: Total use of U.S. wheat for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is projected to be 2.168 bb, up
from 1.958 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and 2.014 bb in MY 2014/15, but down from 2.436 bb in MY
2013/14. Projected total use of wheat in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.958 bb is the smallest amount of U.S.
wheat total usage in the last 14 marketing years, i.e., since 1.969 bb in MY 2002/03 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
KSU projections in February 2016 for U.S. wheat total use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for 2.043 bb, down
from the USDA’s forecast of 2.168 bb (Table 1).
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I‐H. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks & % Stocks‐to‐Use & Prices
United States’ wheat ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2016/17 were projected by the USDA in December
2015 to be 983 mb (after adjustments for more current USDA beginning stocks numbers). This amount of U.S.
wheat ending stocks would be the largest in 29 years, since 1.261 bb in MY 1987/88, and up from 966 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, 752 mb in MY 2014/15, and 590 mb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 8). A total
of 966 mb ending stocks of U.S. wheat in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is 3.16 times larger than 306 mb in MY
2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing year since the early 1970s. KSU projections in February 2016
for U.S. wheat ending stocks in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for 1.058 bb, up from the USDA’s forecast of 983
mb (Table 1).
Percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use for U.S. wheat of 45.3% in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is down from 49.34%
in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up from 37.36% in MY 2014/15, and is now projected to be at the highest level
since 48.6% in MY 2009/10 (Table 1 and Figures 8 and 9). Forecast U.S. wheat ending stocks‐to‐use of 49.34%
in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are at the highest level since the 31 year highs during the “U.S. farm financial
crisis years” of 97.2% in MY 1985/86 and 82.9% MY 1986/87. KSU projections in February 2016 for U.S. wheat
percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are for 51.79%, up from the USDA’s forecast of
45.34% (Table 1).
U.S. average wheat prices for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are projected by the USDA to average $4.40 per
bushel, down from the range of $4.90‐$5.10 per bushel in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (midpoint = $5.00 /bu).
The price projection of $4.40 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17 would be down from $5.00 in “current crop” MY
2015/16, $5.99 in MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $7.24 in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figures 9 and 10).
Figure 8. Trends in U.S. Wheat Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of
February 9, 2016
1,066 …
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
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2015/16, but down from 149 mb in MY 2014/15 (the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in
MY 2013/14.
Canada Wheat Production Trends: Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of
favorable geographic location and associated grain transportation logistic advantages. Large Canadian wheat
supplies over the last several years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada
produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY
2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt (1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.60 mmt (1,014
bb) in “current crop” MY 2015/16. The largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt
happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990 (32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and
2013 (37.53 mmt or 1.379 bb).
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 974 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17,
following a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b)
associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products. This estimated projected
amount of 974 mb in food use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 967 mb for “current crop” MY 2015/16,
958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Seed Use: The USDA forecast seed use of approximately 69 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, up from 66 mb
in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 79 mb in MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY
2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 775 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, but is down marginally from 854 mb in MY 2014/15. Total U.S. wheat exports of
775 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior
to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). This USDA forecast scenario of 850
mb in U.S. wheat exports is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates.
Export projections by KSU of “next crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports are probability‐weighted by
scenario, with a combined 45% likelihood of 850 mb in U.S. wheat exports – equal to the USDA’s projection of
850 mb. There also seems to be a 15% probability of much larger U.S. wheat exports of, say, 1.050 bb
occurring in “next crop” MY 2016, very likely due to significant and at this time unforeseen major foreign crop
production problems in 2016 among key World exporting and/or using countries (Table 1).
The primary factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies – in
particular those of other major World wheat exporters, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of
competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That said, there are several factors that could
change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on
World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and
Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in
other major World wheat production areas due to the “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern likely
to occur in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to
foreign wheat production and/or other market events should occur in late 201 …
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
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I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 974 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17,
following a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b)
associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products. This estimated projected
amount of 974 mb in food use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 967 mb for “current crop” MY 2015/16,
958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Seed Use: The USDA forecast seed use of approximately 69 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, up from 66 mb
in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 79 mb in MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY
2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 775 mb in “current
crop” MY 2015/16, but is down marginally from 854 mb in MY 2014/15. Total U.S. wheat exports of 775 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16 is the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior to the
“Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Projections by KSU of “next crop” MY
2016/17 U.S. wheat exports are also 850 mb – equal to the USDA’s projection of 850 mb (Table 1).
The primary factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies – in
particular those of other major World wheat exporters, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of
competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That said, there are several factors that could
change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on
World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and
Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in
other major World wheat production areas due to anticipated the “El Nino” or an “El Nino transition to a La
Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such
potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should occur in late 201 …
June 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th $7.13 ¼ Close
June 13th
$7.02 Low
June 12th
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eventually impact 2014 World wheat markets if such conditions prolong and cause more pronounced crop
damage in coming weeks and months (such as occurred in both 2010 and 2012 in that region of the World).
“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices have responded to the release of
the May 9th USDA reports by trading generally lower. JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices
opened at $7.28 on Wednesday, June 11th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m.,
central time), and traded in a low‐high range of $7.03 ¼ to $7.31 ¼ during the session before closing $0.21 ¾
lower for the day at $7.04 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). On Thursday (June 12th) and Friday (June 13th), JULY 2014 Kansas
City wheat efutures prices traded in the range from a low of $7.02 on June 12th up to a high of $7.19 ½ on June
13th, before closing at $7.13 ¼ on Friday, June 13th – up $0.07 ¼ per bushel from the previous trading day.
Longer term, after trading at a low of $5.99 ¾ on January 29th, electronic July 2014 Kansas City Hard Red
Winter Wheat futures prices trending sharply higher up to $7.94 ¼ on March 20th, and up to $8.55 ½ on May
6th. Since then, July 2014 Kansas Wheat futures have trended lower, trading as low as $7.02 on Jto since.
Futures trended generally higher since the low, moving as high as $8.55 ½ on May 6th prior to the lower closes
following the May 9th USDA reports.
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 55.815 million acres (ma), down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and
55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, in the WASDE
report the USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 45.9 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013,
down from 48.921 ma in 2012, and up from 45.705 ma in 2011. Updated estimates of U.S. wheat planted and
harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 82.2%,
up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012 and 84.0% in 2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐
planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 42.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down 0.4 bu/ac from May,
and down from the record high of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010,
and 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3). The USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 1.942
billion bushels (bb) – down 21 million bushels (mb) from May, and down from 2.130 bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in
2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
In its June 11th USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be
42.007 million acres (ma). These acres of winter wheat were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of
harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection of 42.007 ma planted in the U.S. in 2014 is down from
43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). As indicated above,
updated estimates of U.S. winter wheat planted and harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS
Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Winter wheat harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014
is projected to be 32.572 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of
77.5%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013 of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013
U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%. The extreme drought conditions and freeze
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damage that have occurred this past fall and winter in the U.S. Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas,
Colorado and Nebraska have been the primary factors leading to a lower than normal forecast of percent
harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2014. Even with recent moisture received in parts of Kansas in recent weeks,
it is possible that the carryover impact of earlier wheat crop development problems in these states will cause
the proportion of 2014 harvested‐to‐planted acres to decline even further, possibly even below the 75.2%
level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 42.4 bu/ac, down from 43.1 bu/ac in May,
down from the record high of 47.4 bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to
be 1.381 bb, down 0.021 bb (21.445 million bushels or ‘mb’) from May, and down from 1.534 bb in 2013. Of
the 2014 total U.S. All Wheat Production of 1.963 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast
to be 720 mb – down 26 mb from May – but down marginally from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter
wheat production is forecast to be 454 mb, down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower U.S. soft
red winter wheat planted acreage in 2014. White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to
be 206 mb, down 3 mb from May, and down from 225 mb in 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield and Production for 2014
The USDA projection of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage is equal to the March 31st USDA
Prospective Plantings report forecast of 12.009 ma. Similarly, 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage is
forecast to be 1.799 ma. The USDA’s estimate of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 12.009 ma is
down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011. The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat
planted acreage to 1.799 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011. Updated
estimates of U.S. spring and durum wheat planted and harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS
Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014.
Based on its internal projections that have not been formally released to the public, the USDA World
Agricultural Outlook Board has calculated 2014 U.S. other spring wheat and durum harvested acres using 10‐
year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state off of its state‐level planted acreage projections. Similarly, spring
wheat and durum wheat yields were estimated using 1985‐2013 yield trends by state (except for durum wheat
in Arizona, California, and Idaho). The combined 2014 production forecast for U.S. spring and durum wheat
together is approximately 560.5 mb, down from 595.4 mb (533.5 mb of other spring wheat, and 61.9 mb or
durum wheat) in 2013.
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of 2.695 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15, resulting from beginning
stocks of 593 mb, projected 2014 production of 1.942 bb, and projected imports of 160 mb (Table 1). Total
supplies of U.S. wheat would be 2.695 bb in MY 2014/15 are down 11 mb from May, down to the lowest
amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. Projected total supplies of
2.695 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932
bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb in MY
2012/13, and 3.018 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 593 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is up 10 mb from May, and is
down 17.4% from 718 mb beginning stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14.
This would be the lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the tight
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ending stocks situation that developed in MY 2007/08. This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into
the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat
supplies that has occurred over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976
mb in MY 2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 160 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. The next highest amounts since MY
1973/74 have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119
mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or
1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has had and likely will continue to have an impact on U.S. wheat
imports until the 2014 U.S. wheat harvest period. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were
over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt). Projected Canadian
wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.5 mmt.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending steadily
higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated food demand for processed
wheat products. This projected amount of 960 mb food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down 10 mb from
May, but up from 950 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is also down 10 mb from May), from 945 mb in MY
2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up marginally from 74 mb in “old crop”
MY 2013/14, and from 73 mb in MY 2012/13, but equal to 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The
USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 extends the historic
pattern of the existence of a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed. Seed wheat demand is
driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year
(from on‐farm and commercial seed sources) and also the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover
possible seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 925 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (down 25 mb from May) are
down sharply from 1.180 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is down 5 mb from May). This amount of U.S.
wheat exports would be the lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10. The anticipation of lower available supplies
of U.S. hard red winter wheat for export sales in “new crop” MY 2014/15, along with the likelihood of more
than adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are factors in this lower U.S. export
projection of 925 mb in 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4). That said, the risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15
Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino weather pattern in coming months, as well
as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and
Ukraine) and dry weather in parts of the Black Sea Region (Russia) are factors that may eventually support
increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World wheat prices in the new crop marketing year.
In the very beginning week of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year (starting on June 1st), as of June 5th
cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments totaled 12.067 mb, which is 1.3% of the USDA’s projected “new crop”
MY 2014/15 exports of 925 mb with 1.9% (1 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “New crop” MY
2014/15 ends on May 31, 2015. United States’ export shipments will need to average 17.9 mb per week
through the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s June WASDE projection
of 925 mb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 12.067 mb occurred during the week ending June 5th, were
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“behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 925 bb in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year. (Source: USDA
Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html).
However, accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 227.7 mb in U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY
2014/15 (that had not yet been shipped as of June 5th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments
added up to 239.8 mb (i.e., 12.1 mb shipped plus 227.7 mb forward sales with rounding) for “new crop” MY
2014/15. This amounts to 25.9% of the USDA’s projection of 925 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 with 1.9% of
the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 1 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 160 mb in “new crop”
MY 2014/15, down 10 my from May, and down from 220 mb for “old crop” MY 2013/14, from the recent high
of 388 mb in MY 2012/13, and up marginally from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Domestic
U.S. wheat feeding has declined due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more
abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.
Subsequently, there is now lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in both
domestic and foreign markets.
Total U.S. Wheat Use: Summing the categories together, total use of U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY
2014/15 is projected to be 2.121 bb, down 45 mb from May (Table 1 and Figure 4). U.S. wheat total use of
2.121 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the 3rd smallest amount of U.S. wheat total usage over the last
decade (since MY 2005/06). Total U.S. wheat use of 2.121 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 compares to 2.154 bb
in MY 2005/06, 2.045 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.314 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.275 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.018 bb in MY
2009/10, 2.417 bb in MY 2010/11 (the 2nd largest amount during the 8 year period), 2.231 bb in MY 2011/12,
2.414 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (the 3rd largest amount during the 8 year period) and the largest amount
in this period of 2.424 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14.
Total usage of U.S. wheat in MY 2012/13 and “old crop” MY 2013/14 were boosted by higher than usual
livestock feeding of wheat in reaction to extremely tight U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies which led to
substitutionary demand for U.S. wheat feeding.
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks, % Stocks‐to‐Use, and Prices
United States’ wheat ending stocks for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year were projected to be 574
mb, up 34 mb from May (Table 1 and Figure 4). The USDA’s June 11th projection of “new crop” MY 2014/15
ending stocks of 574 mb is still uncertain, but given what is known at this point in time, this amount of U.S.
wheat ending stocks is still markedly larger than 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing
year in recent times. Over the last eight marketing years, U.S. wheat ending stocks have been 306 mb in MY
2007/08, 657 mb in MY 2008/09, 976 mb in MY 2009/10, 862 in MY 2010/11, 743 mb in MY 2011/12, 718 mb
in MY 2012/13, an estimated 593 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 10 mb from May), and a projected amount
of 574 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.
Percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use for U.S. wheat of 27.06% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 24.46%
in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 5‐6). This projection of U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the third lowest in the last seven (7) years, and is comparable to the historic
67 year low of 13.2% in MY 2007/08, 28.9% in MY 2008/09, 48.4% in MY 2009/10, 35.7% in MY 2010/11, 33.3%
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in MY 2011/12, 29.7% in MY 2012/13, 24.5% for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now 27.1% in “new crop” MY
2014/15.
U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $6.35‐$7.65 per
bushel (“/bu”) (midpoint = $7.00 /bu) – down $0.30 /bu on both ends of the price range at in the price range
midpoint from May. This compares to $6.87 /bu in “old crop” MY 2013/14 and the record high of $7.77 /bu
for MY 2012/13 (Table 2 and Figures 5‐6). Since the record tight U.S. and World wheat ending stocks
marketing year of 2007/08, U.S. wheat prices have varied in the following manner over time: $6.48 per bushel
in MY 2007/08, $6.78 in MY 2008/09, $4.87 in MY 2009/10, $5.70 in MY 2010/11, $7.24 in MY 2011/12, $7.77
in MY 2012/13, $6.87 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now a forecast range of $6.35‐$7.65 /bu in “new crop”
MY 2014/15. It should be noted that the top end of the “new crop” price range of $7.65 /bu would be the
second highest price on record, following the record high U.S. wheat price of $7.77 in MY 2012/13.
An indicator of inflation that has occurred in U.S. wheat prices is found by comparing the situation in the
historical “tight stocks” year of MY 2007/08 with the “new crop” MY 2014/15. In MY 2007/08, U.S. wheat %
ending stocks‐to‐use were a record low 13.2% with an average U.S. wheat price of $6.48 per bushel – at that
time a record high. In comparison, in “old crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use are estimated
to be higher at 24.5%, but with U.S. wheat prices being moderately higher as well at $6.87 /bu. Similarly, in
MY 2012/13 U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use are estimated to be higher at 29.7%, but with U.S. wheat prices
being moderately higher and a record high of $7.77 /bu.
I‐G. KSU U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
These early 2014 projections by Kansas State University of U.S. wheat production and U.S. wheat supply‐
demand balances and prices for the “coming” or “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year reveal the importance of
planted and harvested acreage, yields, beginning stocks, export and feed use prospects will have on wheat
markets in the coming year. Following the June 11th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, information is
now available in regards to the development of the U.S. winter wheat crop, planting prospects for spring and
durum wheat, initial observations on prospects of the 2014/15 wheat crops of major foreign export
competitors, and the USDA’s initial forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand and price prospects for “new crop”
MY 2014/15.
There are still a wide array of possible U.S. wheat production, supply‐demand balance, and price outcomes
for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year – due to the uncertainty of associated with supply‐demand
prospects at this point in time.
KSU Probability‐Based Projections U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Price Scenarios for MY 2014/15
KSU projections of 2014 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage for alternative production scenarios are
found in Table 1 and Figure 5. Projections of U.S. wheat planted and harvested acres follow the forecast
uncertainty measures provided in the USDA May 9th WASDE forecasts – which in turn were based largely on
the results of the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings report. As mentioned earlier, the USDA harvested
acreage projections are subject to change – especially if drought conditions persist in the U.S. hard red winter
wheat production areas.
Page | 8
Varying projections of 2014 U.S. wheat yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3. Probability‐weighted KSU
forecasts of U.S. wheat average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 that are based on projections of U.S. wheat
% ending stocks‐to‐use provided Table 1 and Figures 5‐6.
Three probability‐weighted KSU U.S. wheat supply‐demand and price scenarios for “next crop” MY
2014/15 are shown below.
1 …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 2
predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to p …
May 19, 2014
Agribusiness Papers
However, the
August 16, 1819 events were initiated by an agitation … other pains.
Simopoulos (2002) showed that the best outcome … Biomedical Pharmacotherapy, 56(2002, 8): 365-379.
17
the …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
product lines. These types of events, occurring at a rapid
pace … Schroeder, Grunewald, and
Ward, 2002; and Wachenheim and DeVuyst … from about 50% of trade in 2002-03 to about 20% in 2016 …