Search
Displaying 111 - 120 of 191
September 6, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Harvested of Planted
Page | 8
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
U.S. Wheat Yields: In its August 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports the USDA projected 2016
U.S. wheat yields to be a record high 52.6 bu/ac – up 1.3 bu from the July WASDE report. The USDA forecast
U.S. wheat yield of 52.6 bu/ac in 2016 is up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, greater than the
previous record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the 2nd highest yield previously on record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012
(Table 1 and Figure 6). KSU estimates of 2016 U.S. wheat yields are unchanged from those of the USDA.
An early pair of KSU projections for 2017 U.S. Wheat Yields include
a) a 65% probability of a trend line U.S. wheat yield in 2017 of 47.0 bu/ac, and
b) a 35% probability of a lower U.S. wheat yield in 2017 of 43.6 bu/ac – essentially equal to U.S. wheat
yields in 2014 (43.7 bu/ac) and 2015 (43.6 bu/ac).
Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973‐2016) and KSU 2017 Trend Yield Projection as of the August 12,
2016 WASDE Report
U.S. Wheat Production: The USDA forecast in its August 12th Crop Production report that – based on its
estimates of 2016 planted acreage (50.816 ma), harvested acreage (44.093 ma), and yield (52.6 bu/ac) – that
2016 U.S. wheat production to be 2,320,585,000 bushels, or 2.321 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
This USDA forecast of 2.321 bb for 2016 is up from 2.052 bb in 2015, and 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the
2004‐2013 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb).
An early pair of KSU projections for 2017 U.S. Wheat Production include the following (Table 1):
a) a 65% probability of a combination of 5.0% lower planted and harvested acres, and a 2017 trend line
yield of 47.0 bu/ac – with 2017 U.S. wheat production of 2.072 bb
b) a 35% probability of a combination of 5.0% lower planted and harvested acres, and a lower yield in
2017 of 43.6 bu/ac – with 2017 U.S. wheat production of 1.922 bb
U.S. Winter Wheat Production: In its August 12th NASS Crop Production report the USDA projected 2016
U.S. winter wheat production to be 1.657 bb – up 287.25 million bushels (mb) (+21.0%) from 1.370 bb in 2015,
and up from 1.377 bb in 2014, 1.543 bb in 2013, and 1.631 bb in 2012. 2016 U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat
31.6
27.3
34.2
39.4
32.7
39.5 …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
documented (e.g., Jones, 2004; Key and
McBride, 2007 … example Martinez and Zering, 2004).
6) Increased coordination … e.g., Azzam and Salvador, 2004;
Perloff and Rauser, 1983 …
October 29, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th 2015 Crop
Production report the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is 54.644 million acres
(ma), down 1.435 ma from the USDA’s earlier projection of 56.079 ma in the June 30th Acreage report and
subsequent July‐September Crop Production reports. This projection of 54.644 ma of 2015 U.S. wheat
planted area is down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014 (adjusted up 19 ma), down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Tra
de
W
td
U.S
. D
oll
ar
Ind
ex
(19
73
=1
00
)
Date (Month/Day/Year)
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (1973=100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Page | 5
from 56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6
year low of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA lowered its forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings to
39.461 ma – down 1.159 ma from it’s previous estimate, down 2.948 ma (‐7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014
(adjusted 10 mb higher), and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma are
projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014,
and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma,
down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4% from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to
be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in
2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA projected total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to
be 13.247 ma – down 258,000 acres from it’s earlier estimate. This projection of 13.247 ma is up 222,000
acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51
ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the USDA at
1.936 ma in 2015 – down 18 ma from the it’s earlier estimate. This total of 1.936 ma for 2015 is up 529,000
acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014 (raised 9 ma), and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from 1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th 2015
Crop Production report the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage is 47.094 million
acres (ma), down 1.360 ma from it’s earlier projection of 48.454 ma in the June 30th Acreage and subsequent
July‐September Crop Production reports. This projection of 47.094 ma of 2015 U.S. wheat harvested area is
up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014 (raised 4 ma), and up 1.762 ma (+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in
2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in the U.S. was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015,
up from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over
the 2000‐2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in
2013 of 80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.257
ma – down 1.072 ma from the previous USDA projection – and down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299 ma in
2014 (raised 5 ma), down 393,000 acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from
34.609 ma in 2012. Of this total, 23.14 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up
5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage
was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For
2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW)
wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in 2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0%
from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat harvested
area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast. This projection of 12.941 ma of
2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, and up
Page | 6
1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from
11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015 – down 12 ma from it’s previous estimate, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from
1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres (+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA projected 2015 U.S. average wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from 44.1
bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection of
2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1
bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.052 billion bushels (bb). This
projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is down 84 mb from August‐September, and down 96
mb from July. It is also up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2 …
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
State University that these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 have a 55% probability of
occurring.
Four Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s August 10th projection, four potential KSU‐
Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower U.S. Production” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2017/18
that the following occurs. This scenario assumes that there will be 46.657 ma planted, 83.72% harvested‐to‐
planted, 37.500 ma harvested, 44.0 bu/ac yield, 1.650 bb production, 2.984 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports,
150 mb feed & residual use, 2.141 bb total use, 843 mb ending stocks, 39.37% stocks/use, & $5.20 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 800 mb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 1.966 bb total use, 1.108 bb ending stocks, 56.36% stocks/use, & $3.75 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 1.200 bb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 2.366 bb total use, 708 mb ending stocks, 29.92% stocks/use, & $6.00 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 4) “Wildcard Foreign Events” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, less than 700 mb
exports, 150 mb feed & residual use, less than 1.800 bb total use, more than 1.300 bb ending stocks, greater
than 65% stocks/use, & less than $3.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
…
February 1, 2008
Water Policy
and Mapp (1986) and Klocke (2004) suggest that computer-aided …
March 26, 2013
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mil. Head
C-N-38
02/04/13
+1.9 … 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per … – Decision aides, these events, regularly updated
online …
August 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
n
exports – driven largely by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil, and 4) the possibility of
broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other
commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve
affecting U.S. interest rates, or geo‐political events that could “shock” Wo …
October 19, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… … The recent upward trend in the relative value of the U.S. dollar began in earnest when the dollar index
was valued at 77.5948 in August 2014. This upward trend continued throughout the remainder of 2014 and
2015 to early 2016 – with the index climbing to a high of 95.2896 in January 2016 (up 22.8% from August
2014). Since then the index has declined moderately, falling to a low of 89.3747 in April 2016, before trending
essentially sideways to an average of 90.0988 in September 2016. To date in October 2016 (i.e., 10/3/2016 to
10/14/2016) the U.S. Dollar index has averaged 91.3263, ranging on a daily basis from 90.3150 to 92.1606.
In addition, since 1980 the global price of corn has a monthly average of $1.37 per bushel (in U.S. dollars)
with a median value of $1.15 per bushel – which like the historic U.S. dollar index above indicates positive
skewness (i.e., a few extremely high values pulling up the average) (Figure 3). The historic low in global corn
prices since 1980 on a monthly basis was $0.65 per bushel – occurring in October 1986. A historic high of
$3.33 per bushel occurred in July 2012 – in the midst of the extensive 2012 drought in the United States. Over
the January 1980 through September 2016 period the global price of corn has sloped upward marginally at a
rate of +$0.0025 per bushel per month.
Since 1980 there has been a negative correlation of ‐0.524 between the U.S. Trade Weighted dollar index
and the global price of corn. This indicates that the global price of corn – typically denominated in U.S. dollars
– has a negative or inverse relationship over‐time with the value of the U.S. dollar.
The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid‐2014 has been a negative
factor in export markets for U.S. corn and other U.S. grains (especially for wheat). A higher U.S. dollar
exchange rate relative to other major World currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers
of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to
purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in U.S. grain markets).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports, it is a very important one –
working against U.S. corn and especially wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in
World grain trade. The sideways trend in U.S. dollar value to date in 2016 (as opposed to increases) has been a
neutral‐to‐positive factor for U.S. corn and other crop exports.
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. corn supply‐demand balance sheet for the MY 2010/11 through “new crop”
MY 2016/17 period, with two additional possible probability‐weighted scenarios for “new crop” MY 2016/17
provided by Kansas State University. United States’ corn harvested and planted acreage for the year 2000 –
projected 2016 period are shown in Figure 4, with U.S. corn yields for 1973‐2016 shown in Figure 5. United
States’ corn production & total supplies for the 2004/05 through projected 2016/17 marketing years are
shown in Figure 6.
Table 1 and Figures 4‐6 illustrate the growth in U.S. corn production and total supplies since the drought‐
impacted short crop year of MY 2012/13, and the most recent forecast by the USDA of even larger U.S. corn
supplies in “new crop” MY 2016/17.
Page | 7
U.S. Planted Acres
The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn planted acres at 94.490 million acres or ‘ma’ – up 342,000 acres from
the USDA’s September projection. This projection of 94.490 ma of 2016 U.S. corn planted acres is the 3rd
highest amount on record – up 6.491 ma (up 7.4%) from 87.999 ma in 2015, and up from 90.597 ma in 2014,
but down from 95.365 ma in 2013 (2nd highest) and 97.291 ma in 2012 (record high) (Table 1 and Figure 4).
U.S. Harvested Acres
The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn harvested acres will be 86.836 ma – up 286,000 acres from the
USDA’s September 2016 projection. This projection of 86.836 ma of 2016 U.S. corn harvested acres is also the
3rd highest amount on record compared to 80.749 ma in 2015, 83.136 ma in 2014, 87.451 ma in 2013 (record
high) and 87.365 ma in 2012 (2nd highest) (Table 1 and Figure 4).
KSU projections for 2016 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres are the same as those of the USDA.
Formal consideration of USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) crop acreage data in USDA 2016 corn acreage
estimates began with the October 2016 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production
report and the accompanying October WASDE report by the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
Further changes could occur in the November 9, 2016 especially in the January 2017 USDA Crop Production
and WASDE reports.
Figure 4. United States’ Corn Planted Acreage for 2000‐2016 as of the October 12, 2016 USDA Crop
Production and WASDE reports
93.5
86.0 …
December 28, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
r U.S.
and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity
markets in 2017.
For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases
in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn
have a negative impact on U.S. corn exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide an unantici …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 2
predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to p …