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July 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
he
U.S.‐China trade dispute is settled by say Fall 2018, that Chinese import purchases of U.S. grain sorghum will
resume at or near pre‐trade dispute levels. IF that occurs, then it is likely again that U.S. sorghum exports will
become the primary driver of grain sorghum usage, domestic prices, and market prospects going forward into
the future. In that event, U.S. grain sorghum would …
April 29, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
April 28, 2020
Recent events in the U.S. economy caused … yield (trendline yield, vs previous record of 76.6 bu/ac in
2017 …
April 30, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ces.
Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows: a) “2015
“Normal Crop” 13.3 bb Production” Scenario (80% prob.): 88.199 ma planted, 81.706 ma harvested, KSU long
term trend yield of 162.3 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.261 bb, total supplies of 15.113 bb, total use
of 13.700 bb, ending stocks of 1.413 bb, 10.31% S/U, & $4.30 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 “Short Crop”
12.7 bb Production” Scenario (20% prob.): Planted and harvested acres unchanged from the previous
scenario, but with a KSU low yield forecast of 155.0 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 12.664 bb, total supplies of
14.516 bb, total use of 13.550 bb, ending stocks of 966 mb, 7.13% S/U, & $6.75 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,163 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15,
up from 1,124 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,000 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of
188.5 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 170.8 mmt (17.9% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 135.4 mmt (15.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13. With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $9.53 and CME
DEC‐2015 corn futures of $3.83 ¼ on 4/30/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.48 favors the planting of
soybeans in the United States in 2015. A lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is
likely to limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and 2015 corn production potential, and to provide at least a
moderate amount of support for U.S. corn prices in “new crop” MY 2015/16 in the spring and early summer.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. March USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On April 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2012/13, 2013/14, as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The
2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015. In its upcoming 12th WASDE report the
USDA will release projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for corn, grain sorghum, wheat,
soybeans and other major crops.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for Spring 2014‐March 2015 Period
During January‐April 2015 U.S. corn futures prices have generally declined, with the lowest prices coming
in late April. The market’s response since the April 9th USDA WASDE report has mirror and exacerbated this
trend. After a low on December 3rd of $3.77 ¼, the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract climbed to a high of
$4.12 ¾ on December 29th (corresponding to a high of $4.25 ¼ for the CME MAY 2015 corn contract that same
day) before declining to a low of $3.65 ¾ by January 30th. Then after trading higher to $3.91 ¾ on February 9th,
the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract closed on February 27th at $3.84 ½, and eventually closed out at $3.74 on
March 13th. During this same period of time the CME MAY 2015 corn futures contract traded as high as to
$4.00 on February 9th before closing at $3.93 ¼ on February 27th, and $3.80 ½ on March 13th. After the
December 9th highs, neither the MARCH 2015 nor the MAY 2015 corn futures contracts have traded above
$4.00 per bushel – at least through Wednesday, April 29th.
The CME MAY 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through late April 2015, when the CME JULY 2015 corn contract will assume market
leadership. Local basis adjustments are still currently being made off MAY 2015 corn futures for spot cash corn
and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “current crop” MAY
2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative manner to the information in
the April 9th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways‐to‐lower”. On the day of the report –
Thursday, April 9th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MAY 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.79 per
bushel, and traded in a range of $3.75 ‐ $3.80 during the session, before settling at $3.78 – down $0.01 ¼ for
the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00
noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAY 2015 has traded from a high of $3.81 ¾ on
Monday, April 20th to a low of $3.59 on Tuesday, April 28th before closing at $3.63 ¾ on Wednesday, April 29th.
In early May 2015, CME JUNE 2015 corn futures will become the lead corn futures contract. On Wednesday,
April 29th the CME June corn futures contract closed at $3.67 ¾.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “new crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through late‐November 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward
contract price bids or hedges in North American and other World grain markets. The “new crop” DECEMBER
2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a “neutral‐to‐negative” manner to the
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information in the April 9th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways‐to‐lower”. On the day of the
report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.04 ½ per bushel, trading within the range of
$4.00 ½ ‐ $4.05 ¼ during the session, before settling at $4.03 ½ – down $0.01 ¼ per bushel for the day (Figure
1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices has traded from a high of $4.04 ¾ on Monday, April 20th
to a low of $3.80 ¾ on Tuesday, April 28th before closing at $3.85 ½ that on Wednesday, April 29th.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
March 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
…
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In its March 2015 USDA WASDE report the USDA made no change from the January‐February WASDE
reports in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage was 90.597 million acres (ma), which had
been adjusted down from 90.885 ma in the December WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage
of 90.597 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.921 ma in 2011.
In addition, the USDA made no change in its January‐February projections of 2014 U.S. corn harvested
acreage of 83.136 ma, which had been adjusted upwards from 83.097 ma in December. Harvested acreage of
83.136 ma in 2014 is down from 87.451 ma in 2013, 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.8% ‐ which had
been adjusted up from 91.4% in December. This proportion of harvested acreage in 2014 of 91.8% is up
marginally from 91.7% in to 2013, and up from 89.9% in 2012, and 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and
unchanged from the January‐February USDA reports, but is down from earlier USDA projections of 173.4 bu/ac
in December and 174.2 bu/ac in October 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3). This projection of 171.0 bu/ac is up from
158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the previous record high
of 164.7 bu …
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
MY 2016/17.
Second, that World wheat exports will also trend marginally lower to 178.4 mmt in the “new crop” 2017/18
marketing year – down from a record high of 181.6 mmt last year, but up from 172.9 mmt two years ago.
Third, that World wheat ending stocks would be a record high 260.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 ‐ up from
the previous record of 258.05 mmt las …
December 27, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
econd, that World wheat exports will also trend marginally lower to 182.15 mmt in the “new crop” 2017/18
marketing year – down from a record high of 183.2 mmt last year, but still up from 172.8 mmt two years ago.
Third, that World wheat ending stocks would be a record high 268.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 ‐ up from
the previous record of 255.3 mmt in …
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
xt crop” MY 2017/18, 2017 U.S. wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059 million acres (ma) – down from
50.154 ma in 2015. Harvested acres for 2016 are forecast to be 39.050 ma – down from 43.890 ma a year ago.
Trendline 2017 wheat yields for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac,
while the adjusted 2017 U.S. wheat production forecast is 1.839 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in
2015. Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.118 bb (down from 3.395 bb in “current” MY
2016/17), with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.236 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the adjusted USDA projection of “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks equals 927
million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 42.3% S/U (vs 51.8% last
year and 50.0% the previous year). United States’ wheat prices are projected to average approximately $4.25
/bu – up from $3.85 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY
2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY
2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend
yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 190 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total
use, 937 mb ending stocks, 42.8% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18
the following. The following is forecast for “next crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 190 mb feed
& residual use, 2.326 bb total use, 802 mb ending stocks, 24.10% S/U, & $4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that
the following happens. This scenario assumes 46.059 ma planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low yield,
1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 175 mb feed & residual use, 2.175 bb total use,
594 mb ending stocks, 27.31% S/U, & $5.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
June 1, 2009
Meat Demand Research Studies
insights into
beef demand and previously unexamined topics including … related other food safety events have raised
consumer concerns … meat demand from food safety events.
Marsh, Schroeder, and Mintert …
June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Durum
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per acre or ‘bu/ac’). It also assumes that 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres are 86.33% of planted acres – up
from the 2000‐2015 average of 84.22%.
The KSU May 2016 forecast of 2016 U.S. wheat harvested acres is 41.737 ma, using a 2000‐2015 average
harvested‐to‐planted acres percentage of 84.22% on the USDA’s forecast of 49.559 ma planted – down 1.047
ma acres (‐2.4%) from the adjusted USDA 2016 projection (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: In its May 10th NASS Crop Production report the USDA projected
2016 U.S. winter wheat harvested acres to be 29.831 ma – down 2.426 ma (‐7.5%) from 32.257 ma in 2015,
down 2.468 ma (‐7.6%) from 32.299 ma in 2014, down 2.819 ma (‐8.6%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down
4.778 ma (‐13.8%) from 34.609 ma in 2012 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Figure 5. U.S. All Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage (1973‐2016) as of the May 10, 2016 WASDE report
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
U.S. Wheat Yields: In its May 10th WASDE report the USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 46.7
bu/ac, up from 43.6 in 2015, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and
the previous record high of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). This USDA forecast scenario is given a
45% probability of occurring by KSU estimates.
The KSU “trend‐line yield” projection with an estimated 35% probability of occurring is for 2016 U.S.
average wheat yields of 46.0 bu/ac, which is a trend‐line forecast for 2016 based on all yields over the 1973‐
2015 time period. An alternative low yield KSU “crop problems” scenario with a 10% likelihood of occurring,
would drop U.S. wheat yields to 43 bu/ac due to some combination of late season hard red crop production
problems in the western Corn Belt, soft red winter wheat production challenges in the eastern Corn Belt,
spring wheat production problems in the north central states, and/or while wheat production issues in the
pacific northwest.
U.S. Wheat Production: in its May 10th WASDE report – based on forecast 2016 planted acreage (49.559
ma), implicit harvested acreage (42.764 ma), and yield (46.7 bu/ac) – the USDA forecast 2016 U.S. wheat
production to be 1.998 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7). This USDA forecast scenario of 1.988 bb is
60.5 …