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February 20, 2024
Ag Law Issues
The EPA
was sued on the basis that the registration process …
August 26, 2024
Recent Videos
Call Spread
Current Defered Basis
Months of Storage
Storage … gt; Call Call Expected Basis ($0.200) A-T-M Strike $5.50 … 3%DirectCosts $4.00+ a margin $0.50+ Basis ($0.05)= JUL Futures $4.55
Directw/Rent$5.61$0.50($0.05)$6.16
YourFarm?____??____??____??____?
TotalCosts$6.92$0.50($0.05)$7.47
WHEAT …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
of termination on a yearly basis. This avoids
being locked … distinguished from tenants on the basis that croppers have no
property … arrangement, the rent is paid on the basis of a
specified proportion …
May 19, 2025
Ag Law Issues
depreciation on a retroactive basis
• Limiting Medicare benefits …
July 1, 2025
2018 Farm Bill
payments are on a per acre basis and will be made on 85%
of …
September 25, 2025
Center
Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG
Projections?
Use … Center
Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG Projections?
Use BeefBasis.com
Salina … 198/head)
Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG Projections?
Use BeefBasis.com
Salina …
April 25, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price
trends (Figure 2). In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements have been
inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns. Steady‐to‐declining prices during September 2015‐February
2016 were followed by a sharp decline in February 2016, differing from the historic pattern of harvest lows in
October followed by rising prices thereafter. Corn prices are forecast to trade higher from mid‐March through
August 2016 by USDA futures and basis history‐based corn price models.
Figure 2. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY
2014/15) plus “Current” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info)
I‐D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index
Appreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies of U.S. trading partner countries
began in earnest in August 2014 when the dollar index was valued at 77.2692 on August 15th. This upward
trend continued through January 2016 with the index climbing to a high of 95.8011 on January 20th ‐ an
increase of 24.0% from mid‐August 2014 (Figure 3). Since then a moderate decline occurred in early February
2016, followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend through mid‐April 2016. On April 15, 2016 the U.S. Dollar index
was calculated to be 89.5623 – down 6.5% from the January 20th high of 95.8011.
The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid‐2014 is significant
negative factor in U.S. corn and other U.S. grain export markets. A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to
95.2 …
June 1, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price
trends. However, in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements have been
inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns (Figure 2a). Steady‐to‐declining prices during September
2015‐April 2016 differ from the historic pattern of harvest lows in October followed by steadily rising prices
through the following May‐June. However, in “current” MY 2015/16 U.S. corn prices have moved higher in
May from April lows, and are forecast to trade higher yet from June through August 2016 according to USDA
futures and basis history‐based corn price models.
Figure 2a. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop”
MY 2014/15) plus “Current” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA
ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
Conversely, in the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements are projected to
return closer to normal historic seasonal price patterns (Figure 2b). In “new crop” MY 2016/17 – beginning
September 1, 2016 – U.S. corn prices are forecast to decline from September 2016 into harvest lows in
95.2%
93.4%
95.3%
97.0%
99.3%
101.4%
103.2 …
March 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price
trends (Figure 2). In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn, prices movements have been
inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns over the previous fifteen years in Kansas. Steady‐to‐declining
prices during September 2015‐January 2016 were followed by a sharp decline in February 2016, differing from
the historic pattern of harvest lows in October followed by rising prices thereafter. Corn prices are forecast to
trade higher from mid‐March through August 2016 by USDA futures and basis history‐based corn price models.
…
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Price Trends
Season Average Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price
trends. However, in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements have been
inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns (Figure 2a). Steady‐to‐declining prices during September
2015‐April 2016 differ from the historic pattern of harvest lows in October followed by steadily rising prices
through the following May‐June. However, “current” MY 2015/16 U.S. corn prices moved sharply higher in
May 2016 from April lows, and are forecast to trade higher yet from June through August 2016 according to
USDA futures and basis history‐based corn price models.
Based on market information available through June 10th, the USDA’s futures‐based price model
(http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx) projects for “current” MY
2015/16 that the U.S. corn season average price will be $3.79 per bushel –up from the June 10th USDA WASDE
midpoint projection of $3.70 but within the forecast range of $3.60‐$3.80 /bu. These seasonal price patterns
are calculated as a percent of the USDA’s futures based price model season average price for “current” MY
2015/16 of $3.79 per bushel rather than the June 10th WASDE mid‐point price projection of $3.70 for U.S. corn.
Season Average Prices for “New Crop” MY 2016/17
Conversely, in the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements are projected to
return closer to normal historic seasonal price patterns (Figure 2b). In “new crop” MY 2016/17 – beginning
September 1, 2016 – U.S. corn prices are forecast to decline from September 2016 into harvest lows in
October. Then following these October harvest lows, corn prices are projected to increase through November‐
December 2016, but to then more sideways‐to‐marginally higher through March 2017. Prices are then
forecast to trend higher yet during April‐August 2017. These projected prices for “new crop” MY 2016/17 by
the USDA are similar to long term historic price trends in terms of pronounced harvest lows and post‐harvest
recovery occurring during September‐December. However, they differ in that “new crop” MY 2016/17 prices
are projected to be “flatter” during January‐March, but then to rise more strongly during April through August.
DEC 2016 CME Corn Futures
Jan. 25 – June 20, 2016
Close = $4.33 ¾ on 6/20/2016
JULY 2016 CME Corn Futures
Jan. 25 – June 20, 2016
Close = $4.21 ¼ on 6/20/2016
Page | 5
Figure 2a. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop”
MY 2014/15) plus “Current” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA
ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
Figure 2b. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop”
MY 2014/15) plus “New Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info &
USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
The June 10th USDA’s futures‐based price model projects for “new crop” MY 2016/17 that the final U.S.
corn season average price will be $4.10 per bushel – which is up from the June 10th USDA WASDE midpoint
projection of $3.50 and also outside of the top end of the forecast range of $3.20‐$3.80 per bushel. These
seasonal price patterns are calculated as a percent of the USDA’s futures based price model season average
price for “new crop” MY 2016/17 of $4.10 per bushel rather than the June 10th WASDE report mid‐point price
projection of $3.50 for U.S. corn.
95.2%
93.4%
95.3%
97.0%
99.3%
101.4%
103.2 …