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Family Living
Size
4.3 4.1 2.0 2.7
Income
Misc TaxableIncome
4,556 11,605 11,816 9,713
Wages
35,603 … 12,554
Other Non-Taxable Income
2,153 7,643 10,027 7,965
Non-Deductible … 44,147 -28,748
Non-Farm Income (1)
$34,484 $50,891 $80,401 …
April 15, 2021
Land Buying and Valuing
students and possibly
lifetime income for you. And you no longer … weather.
Wondering how to grow your future income
and support the university … options that pay you a lifetime income and support
generations …
August 18, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
Coverage Option (SCO), Stacked Income
Protection Plan (STAX) on …
November 15, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
They
then add in investment income, if any, less taxes and the …
April 8, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
insurance rules.”
4. Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX) for …
August 3, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
There are no Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) or Group …
August 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. Wheat Associates indicated that according to 428 samples analyzed through August 24, 2018, that
average protein for the 2018 U.S. hard red winter wheat (HRW) crop averaged 12.5%, with average test weight
of 60.8 lb/bu, 11.1% moisture, dockage of 0.5%. a falling number rating of 372 seconds, and 1.3% defects. This
compares to the results of 488 samples for the 2017 U.S. HRW Wheat crop, which according to U.S. Wheat
Associates test data averaged 10.6% protein, 60.8 lbs/bu test weight, 10.6% moisture, 0.6% dockage, 367
seconds for the Falling Number test, and 1.1% defects.
Consequently, lower yields occurring during the 2018 HRW harvest in Kansas and Oklahoma (i.e., 38.0
bu/ac in 2018 in Kansas vs 48.0 bu/ac a year earlier, and 25.0 bu/ac in Oklahoma in 2018 vs 34.0 bu/ac a year
ago) have been partially offset income‐wise by higher protein levels – leading to higher cash market prices.
C. World Wheat Supply‐Demand – “Large supplies but tightening stocks”
For the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) which began on June 1, 2018, the USDA projected the
following (Figures 13 thru 17):
World wheat total supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19 would be a near record 1,002.70 million metric
tons (mmt) accompanied by record high total use of 743.74 mmt – down 1.2% and up 0.2%, respectively, from
“old crop” MY 2017/18. The USDA in essence projects that the recent “large supply – large use” situation that
has persisted for the global wheat market since the last “supply‐demand” period in MY 2012/13 will continue
(Figure 13). However, there have been concerns about 2018‐2019 wheat crop production amount and quality
prospects and resulting export supply potential from parts of the European Union (Germany and France), the
Black Sea Region (Russia & Ukraine), and Australia (New South Wales).
CommentaryKSU: These aggregate World supply and use numbers do NOT bring light to the shortage of
high protein wheat that is problematic in World markets, OR the sizable wheat stocks held by China that are
isolated from the World wheat market. There are concerns from the Black Sea Region about the amount of
food versus feed quality wheat available for export on World markets this year.
World wheat exports are forecast to also be a new record high of 183.87 mmt in the “new crop” 2018/19
marketing year – up from a 182.64 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, the previous record high of 183.27 mmt in
MY 2016/17, and from 172.8 mmt in MY 2015/16 (Figure 13). While World wheat exports are forecast to
increase by 10.8% since MY 2013/14 (i.e., 1 year after the short crop year of MY 2012/13), over the same
period U.S. wheat exports are projected to decline by 12.8% from 1.176 billion bushels in MY 2013/14 to 1.025
bb in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
CommentaryKSU: Concerns about adequacy of exportable supplies in other major wheat exporting countries
– aside from the U.S. – has raised the possibility of at least moderately stronger U.S. wheat exports occurring in
“new crop” MY 2018/19. This discussion reinforces the idea that the U.S. is currently positioned as an
“emergency supplier of last resort” to many global wheat importers.
Page | 3
World wheat ending stocks are projected to be 258.96 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – the 2nd highest in
history following the record high of 273.07 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 13). Since MY 2007/08
World wheat ending stocks have been growing an average of 13.5 mmt per marketing year from the low of
177.90 mmt in MY 2012/13 – out‐pacing the annual growth in total use of 11.8 mmt per marketing year.
World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (% S/U) are forecast to be 34.8% in “new crop” MY 2018/19 ‐
the 2nd highest on record (Figures 16a‐b). The record high is 36.8% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. World wheat %
stocks‐to‐use has consistently increased each year since MY 2012/13 until the current year. Since 25.9%
stocks/use in ‘short crop’ MY 2012/13, World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (% S/U) increased to 28.3%
in MY 2013/14; 31.35% in MY 2014/15; 34.5% in MY 2015/16, 34.8% in MY 2016/17; and to the record high of
36.8% S/U in “old crop” MY 2017/18; before a projected moderate decline to 34.8% in “new crop” MY
2018/19.
D. “World‐Less‐China” Wheat Supply‐Demand – ““Tightening to an 11‐Year Low”
The broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be continuing to
“obscure” or “masking” the effect of large but somewhat isolated Chinese wheat stocks on actually available
World wheat supplies and stocks.
From a “World‐Less‐China” perspective, forecast ending stocks‐to‐use of 19.8% would be the lowest level
in 11 years – since 17.5% S/U in MY 2007/08 (Figures 17a‐b). “World‐Less‐China” wheat ending stocks‐to‐use
is forecast to be down sharply from 23.4% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from the range of 22.05% to 27.5%
during the MY 2008/09 – MY 2017/18 period.
IF this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available global supplies of
purchasable wheat for buyers to gain access to in coming months, it could have a significant positive impact on
U.S. and World wheat market prices in “new crop” MY 2018/19. However, unless there is this change in the
broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market AWAY FROM large aggregate global supplies over TO
available “World‐Less‐China” supplies, the attention of the World wheat market and market prices may not
change in a positive direction. The information in the following section may be an impetus for that change.
E. “Major Wheat Exporters” % Stocks/Use – “Also Tightening to an 11‐Year Low”
Ending stocks among global wheat exporters including Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union,
Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to decline to 49.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19. This
amount would be down from 66.25 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from the recent high of 68.3 mmt in
MY 2016/17. Excluding the United States with its current large stocks situation, the ending stocks of the
remaining six (6) major wheat exporters have declined to at least a 21‐year low of 24.4 mmt in “new crop” MY
2018/19. This amount would be down sharply from the recent high of 36.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 and
from the 34.8 mmt in MY 2016/17.
Rest of the World (ROW) Wheat ending stocks: Excluding the major seven (7) global wheat exporters
Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States – wheat ending
stocks for the Rest of the World (ROW) are projected to increase to a record high 209.1 mmt in “new crop”
MY 2018/19. This amount would be up from 206.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up from 188.8 mmt in
MY 2016/17. Excluding China with its current large stocks situation – and limited participation in World wheat
trade, the ending stocks of the Rest of the World‐less‐China have decreased to 122.8 mmt in “new crop” MY
Page | 4
2018/19 (Figure 17). This amount would be down 16.0% from 146.25 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (2nd
highest on record), from 146.1 mmt in MY 2016/17, and the record high of 147.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
Top 7 Exporters Own % S/U: The projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use among global wheat
exporters including Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States
are projected to decline to 13.0% in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – down from 16.8% in “old crop” MY 2017/18,
from 17.4% in MY 2016/17 and the 21‐year high of 22.2% in MY 2009/10 (Figure 15). This amount of 13.0%
S/U for the top 7 World wheat exporters is the second lowest in the last 21‐years compared to 12.2% in the
‘short crop” 2007/08 marketing year.
Top 7 Exporters Own Stocks as a % of World Use: Relative to total World wheat stocks, the ending stocks
of the top 7 World wheat exporters is projected to decline to 19.3% top 7 exporter end stocks / World use in
“new crop” MY 2018/19, down from 24.3% in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (2nd lowest), and the lowest proportion
since at least MY 1998/99 (i.e., the last 21‐years) (Figure 14).
CommentaryKSU: These results show that while aggregate World wheat ending stocks have declined
moderately, “under the surface” of those numbers, wheat stocks are projected to be “extremely tight” among
World exporters – much tighter than for the rest of the World wheat market. Tightening wheat stocks and %
S/U among the top 7 wheat exporters is a positive factor for U.S. wheat market price prospects ‐ since it could
eventually lead to larger U.S. wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19. However, a large increase in U.S.
wheat export sales and shipments may be “back loaded” in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – after supplies from other
major exporters with transportation cost and/or currency exchange rate advantages over the United States
have “run short” of exportable supplies.
F. U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …
March 1, 2013
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Income ($/capita)
Per Capita Beef … Capita Beef Consumption and Income, Selected Countries, 2008
Argentina
Source … Africa
Iran
China
India
Pakistan
Philippines
10% increase in income
5% increase in beef consumption
Vietnam
Who …
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
Situation
$(20,000)
$30,000
$80,000
$130,000
$180,000
Retu
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ver T
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Cos
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Net Farm Income Per Operator ‐ KFMA
Dryland Crop
Kansas … Situation
($20,000)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000 Total Net Farm Income ‐ KFMA
Farm …
January 13, 2022
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
male, and having household income over $100,000.2 Those placing …