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December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas
Wheat futures contracts on Wednesday, December 28th was $0.22 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less
$4.09 ½ for MARCH 2017 Wheat), or $0.05625 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MARCH 2017 to JULY 2017 would
at least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.05625 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo
storage cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least st …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.80 ¼ on 5/19/2017
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.38 on 5/19/2017
Page | 4
DECEMBER (DEC) 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.90 ¼ on
April 20, 2016, and $5.90 on June 8, 2016. Then DEC 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to lows of
$4.74 per bushel on August 31st, $4.72 ½ on October 12th, and $4.59 ½ on December 1, 2016. DEC
2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures then traded up to a high of $5.30 ¾ on February 16,
2017. From that February 16th high, DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat futures then traded lower –
down to a low of $4.67 on April 25th before rising to $5.09 on May 2nd before closing at $4.80 ¼ on
Friday, May 19th (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and DEC 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Friday, May 19th was $0.42 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $4.80 ¼ for DEC 2017 less $4.38 for JULY
2017 Wheat), or $0.07042 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from JULY 2017 to DEC 2017 would at
least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.07042 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo storage
cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least st …
January 19, 2010
Energy
content is 25% on a 50% solids basis. Condensed corn fermented … Solubles
On a dry matter basis “corn condensed distillers … nutrients on a per unit
basis as unprocessed shelled corn …
Information Center
Beef Basis, Salina KS
Projections (as … contract)
MAR FC @ $176 & Exp. Basis: -$7.42
4 FC Options …
November 4, 2014
X/hd
http://www.beefbasis.com/VOG.aspx
Current Basis Projections
Understate Prices … Cash
– MAR FC: $228.00 Exp. Basis: -$1.00
– LRP Exp. Ending … hedge”
– MAR FC: $228.00 Exp. Basis: -$1.00
– LRP Exp. Ending …
April 19, 2012
of: 4/18/12
12’ Strong
Basis
=
$5 to
$10/cwt
miss … – Historically strong basis on calves…
• Accounting … Source: USDA-AMS
Stronger Basis
Recently than Historic
Patterns… …
February 23, 2012
99
Current Price & Basis Information
• Futures … Slaughter steer prices
• Basis (Cash - Futures) Information … www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/default.asp#Basis Charts
– BeefBasis.com …
August 20, 2010
http://www.lmic.info/quick/quickdr.html)
39
Current Price & Basis Information
• Futures Markets
– … Slaughter steer prices
• Basis (Cash - Futures) Information
– … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/default.asp#Basis Charts
– BeefBasis.com …
January 10, 2018
Farming for the Future Presentations
Information Center
Beef Basis, Dodge City KS
2018 Projections … Information Center
ES
Beef Basis, Dodge City KS
2018 Projections … AND OFFAL VALUE
Live Animal Basis, Weekly
Avg. 2011-15 2016 …
November 10, 2016
2016 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Potato farms must have 2 commodities because the
Federal Crop Insurance Act specifically limits potato
revenue insurance to that on a ‘whole‐farm’ basis.
• Other revenue coverage includes Revenue Protection,
Revenue Protection w/ the Harvest Price Exclusion, and
Actual Revenue History
• …