Search
Displaying 131 - 140 of 185
August 1, 2010
Research Papers and Presentations
random due to uncontrollable events (e.g., weather).2
Aggregation … land.
2 A 5-year average (2005-2009) was also examined as … 2007-09), 5-year average (2005-09), and 7-year average (2003-09 …
August 1, 2010
Production Publications
random due to uncontrollable events (e.g., weather).2
Aggregation … land.
2 A 5-year average (2005-2009) was also examined as … 2007-09), 5-year average (2005-09), and 7-year average (2003-09 …
March 1, 2013
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Mil. Tons
G-NP-22
01/11/13Livestock … 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
E
x
p
o
r
t
s … 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
P
e
r
c
e
n
t …
September 1, 2009
Assessing Business Opportunities
Abstract
Business development is crucial for sustained economic progress and individual well‐being.
This paper describes how to provide support for business development efforts in communities
in conflict environments or only recently emerged from conflict environments. It uses the
Cascade Approach® to provide a clear and practical framework for developing businesses that
are carefully and deliberately discovered by people who are passionate about them and are
capable of marshaling the requisite resources to transform ideas into exploitable value.
The author is an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State
University. He may be reached by telephone at (785) 532‐3520 and by email at
vincent@ksu.edu.
There are worksheets accompanying this paper and they are available at www.Agmanager.info.
Contents
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1
Research Problem and Paper Outline ......................................................................................... 1
PART I: PHILOSOPHICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................... 3
The Geography of Economic Thought ........................................................................................ 3
Our Assumptions Are Not Necessarily Universal ........................................................................ 4
Establishing the Purpose for Action ............................................................................................ 6
PART II: OPPORTUNITY DISCOVERY AND ASSESSMENT.................................................................. 8
Defining the Person Searching for Opportunities ....................................................................... 8
The Conscious Search for Opportunities .................................................................................... 9
Assessment of Identified Opportunities ................................................................................... 11
Transforming Opportunities into Exploitable Value ................................................................. 12
Marshaling of Strategic Resources ........................................................................................... 16
Assigning Responsibilities ......................................................................................................... 18
PART III: FROM STRATEGIC THINKING TO STRATEGIC ACTION .................................................... 19
There Are No Islands ................................................................................................................. 19
Executing the Ideas ................................................................................................................... 20
There Are No Linearities, Expect Breakdowns .......................................................................... 22
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 23
REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 24
1
Practical Strategies for Business Development in
Conflict and Post‐Conflict Environments
Vincent Amanor‐Boadu
August 2009
INTRODUCTION
Conflicts can have adverse effects on people’s decision‐making capacity
and influence their relationships. This is because conflicts affect the
sensemaking that people bring to events and situations. Entrepre …
August 15, 2022
Ag Law Issues
4
payments from 2005 through 2008. The USDA determined … operating entity.
In any event a professional that understands … engaged
in farming in any event. For example, a crop-share …
April 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Events … regain access (as of early 2005)
to several key markets …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… 2014 CME eSoybeans
10/18/2013 – 6/18/2014
Close: $12.13 on June 18th
Page | 4
I‐D. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand
U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage, U.S. average
yield, and U.S. soybean production. Updated estimates of U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage will be
given in the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Any changes in projected
U.S. soybean acreage in the upcoming Acreage report will likely be included in the upcoming July 11th World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report.
Following from the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA continued to
project that 2014 U.S. soybean total planted acreage would be a record high 81.493 million acres (ma), up
from 76.533 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2). In addition, the
USDA projected 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage to be 80.5 ma, up from 75.869 ma in 2013, 76.164 ma in
2012, and 73.776 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be
98.7%, down from 99.1% in 2013, but comparable to 98.7% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011. The U.S. average
soybean percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of 2004‐2013 has been 98.7% , with a high of
99.1% in 2007 and 2013, and a low of 98.3% in 2011. Using the 2004‐2013 average percent harvested‐to‐
planted acreage proportion of 98.7% would lead to a projection of 2014 U.S. harvested acres of 80.469 ma –
marginally less (down 31,000 acres) than the USDA’s projection of 80.5 ma, and within the rounding error of
100,000 acres for the forecast.
The projected 2014 U.S. average soybean yield of 45.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, up
from 43.3 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 yield of 39.8 bu/ac, and the historic high of 44.0 bu/ac in
2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S.
soybean production to be a record high 3.635 billion bushels (bb) – which is up from 3.289 bb in 2013, 3.034
bb in 2012, 3.094 bb in 2011, 3.329 in 2010, and 3.359 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Soybean Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 3.775 bb – down
5 million bushels or ‘mb’ from May. Total “new crop” supplies of 3.775 bb result from beginning stocks of 125
mb, projected 2014 production of 3.635 bb, and projected imports of 15 mb (Table 1). Total supplies of 3.775
bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to 3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (2nd highest),
3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY 2009/10 (4th highest), 3.495 bb in MY
2010/11 (5th highest), 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.239 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.519 bb in “current year” MY
2013/14 (3rd highest).
Beginning stocks of 125 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down 5 mb from May, but up from 141 mb in
“current year” MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 mb in MY 2011/12. This forecast of lower
beginning stocks of 125 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the low of 112 mb which occurred in
MY 2004/05, and to what is at least a 40 year low of 103 mb in beginning stocks in MY 1977/78.
Imports of 15 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from the record high of 90 mb in
“current year” MY 2013/14, and down from the 2nd highest amount of 36 mb in MY 2012/13. However, U.S.
soybean imports of 15 mb in “new crop” would represent a return to “normal” – being comparable to the
Page | 5
range of 10 – 16 mb in U.S. soybean imports for the MY 2007/08 through MY 2011/12 period, and of U.S.
soybean imports of less than 10 mb per marketing year going back to at least MY 1980/81.
U.S. Soybean Use by Category & Total Use
Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.715 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up
from 1.700 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 (which is up 5 mb from May), 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, and from
1.703 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The record high amount of 1.808 bb of U.S. soybean domestic
crushings occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity‐wise with 1.803 bb in MY 2007/08.
U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.625 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a
record high, up from the current estimated high of 1.600 in “current” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Beginning in MY 2006/07, U.S. soybean exports were 1.116 bb, followed by 1.159 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb
in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd highest on record), 1.505 bb in MY 2010/11 (2nd highest on
record), 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.320 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.600 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 (the historic
record high if actually attained), and now the projected new record high of 1.625 bb in “new crop” MY
2014/15.
Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales, as of June 5th, with 40 of 52 weeks
(76.9%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete, 1.583 bb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to
98.9% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.600 bb for “current” MY 2013/14. United States’ export
shipments will need to average only 1.43 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14
marketing year to attain the USDA’s June WASDE projection of 1.600 bb. This compares to U.S. soybean
export shipments of 7.84 mb and 5.40 mb which occurred during the weeks ending May 29th and June 5th,
respectively. As a result, these recent U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA
marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.600 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign
Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
Also as of June 5th an additional 72.0 mb of U.S. soybeans had been sold for future export sales in “current”
marketing year. Adding together 1.583 bb in past shipments plus 72 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.655 bb,
or 103.5% of the USDA’s 1.600 bb U.S. soybean export target for “current” MY 2013/14 in the June 11th USDA
WASDE report, with 76.9% (40/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.
The strong pace of combined shipments and sales motivated the USDA to increase its U.S. soybean export
projection in the earlier May 9th WASDE report. However, after increasing the export projection in May, the
USDA left it unchanged from this higher level of 1.600 bb in the June WASDE report. Also, the distinct
possibility that the as of yet unshipped soybean sales could be cancelled before physical shipment occurs
motivated the USDA to not raise its forecast of 1.600 bb in exports even closer to the total of 1.655 bb total of
shipments plus forward sales as of June 5th. If this amount of additional U.S. soybean shipments were to
actually occur in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, then there would be an additional 55 mb in U.S.
soybean usage (i.e., 1.655 – 1.600 bb = 55 mb).
As a consequence – with all other U.S. soybean supply‐demand factors remaining unchanged – if these
additional U.S. soybean exports occurred in “current” MY 2013/14, U.S. soybean ending stocks would drop
below 100 mb down to extremely low levels near 70 mb. However, this tight of an ending stocks situation for
U.S. soybeans in “current” MY 2013/14 (ending August 31, 2014) is not likely to occur (i.e., the U.S. soybean
industry would severely ration usage through higher prices in order to avoid it). But this illustration points out
Page | 6
the potential ramifications of all the current U.S. soybean export forward sales actually becoming “physical
shipments” in the current marketing year.
To illustrate, as of June 5th, outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2014/15 beginning
September 1, 2015 were 72.890 mb. This amount of forward sales amounts to 4.5% of projected “new crop”
MY 2014/15 sales of 1.625 bb. This total of 72.890 mb in forward “new crop” MY 2014/15 sales would be
expected to increase as the end of the “current” MY 2013/14 marketing year on August 31st approaches, and
unsold soybeans in “current” MY 2013/14 are “rolled” into the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.
The USDA anticipates a major reduction in the pace of U.S. soybean exports in the coming months as South
American soybean exports complete with those from the U.S. for World export shipments. Also, the spike in
U.S. soybean imports to a record high 90 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 seems to have in part been a reaction by
World soybean market suppliers such as Brazil to the tightening “current” marketing year ending stocks
situation in the United States in recent months.
Seed and Residual Use: Forecast seed use of 92 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down from 95 mb in
“current” MY 2013/14, but up from 89 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 90 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure
4). Forecast residual use of 18 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 0 mb estimated in “current” MY
2013/14, and from 1 mb in MY 2012/13.
Total U.S. Soybean Use: Projected U.S. total use of 3.450 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is a record high,
and is up from 3.395 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 (which is up 5 mb from May and up 35 mb from April) (Table
1 and Figure 4). Over the last eight (8) marketing years, total U.S. soybean use has been 3.081 bb in MY
2006/07, 3.056 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.047 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.361 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest on record),
3.280 bb in MY 2010/11, 3.155 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.099 bb in MY 2012/13, the estimated amount of 3.395 bb
in “current” MY 2013/14 (2nd largest on record), and now the projected record high of 3.450 bb in “new crop”
MY 2014/15.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices
U.S. soybean ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 325 mb, down 5 mb from May,
but up 200 mb from 125 mb in ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 (which is also down 5 mb from May and
down 10 mb from April). Projected “new crop” MY 2104/15 ending stocks of 325 mb would be the largest
amount since 449 mb in MY 2005/06 and 574 mb in MY 200 …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
World Soybean Total Supplies of 367 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 341 mmt in “current year”
MY 2013/14, and up from 321 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82 mmt (29.3%
S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.0 mmt (24.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and up from
57.0 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 3, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and November
10th 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Tra
de
W
td
U.S
. D
oll
ar
Ind
ex
(19
73
=1
00
)
Date (Month/Day/Year)
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (1973=100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Page | 5
56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA left unchanged its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat plantings to 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%)
from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter
(SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4%
from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396
ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW)
wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October projection of total
U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014,
and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring
(HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and
November 10th 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested
acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma
(+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1
and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA maintained its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299 ma in 2014, down 393,000
acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma in 2012. Of this total, 23.14
ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from
20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7%
from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma
of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW) wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in
2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0% from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October projection that total U.S.
other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast.
This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from
12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red
Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Page | 6
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the November 2015 WASDE report the USDA maintained it’s October projection of 2015 U.S. average
wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from 44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac
in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down
from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2
bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels (bb).
This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐
2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA are unchanged
from October but down 84 mb from the September WASDE report, resulting from beginning stocks of 753 mb,
projected 2015 production of 2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1 and Figure 7). Over the last
ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY
2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.969 bb in MY 2011/12,
3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15, and are now projected to be 2.930
bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in MY 2014/15
(the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY 1973/74 and prior to MY
2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 124 mb in
MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt
(1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 26.0 mmt (955 mb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990
(32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
Page | 7
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has followed a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 follows 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 8).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). The USDA’s forecast of U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat for seed use purposes, driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate
U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with consideration for the risk
of possible annual seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 50 mb from October,
down 100 mb from September, 125 mb from August, and 150 mb from July) are down 6.3% from 854 mb in
“old crop” MY 2014/15 – which is down to the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72
prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Over the last ten (10)
marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in
MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 800
mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United
States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical
conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East), and 2) the potential for dry or
adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino”
or an “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until
tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should
occur in late 20 …
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
Page | 10
2015/16, but down from 149 mb in MY 2014/15 (the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in
MY 2013/14.
Canada Wheat Production Trends: Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of
favorable geographic location and associated grain transportation logistic advantages. Large Canadian wheat
supplies over the last several years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada
produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY
2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt (1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.60 mmt (1,014
bb) in “current crop” MY 2015/16. The largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt
happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990 (32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and
2013 (37.53 mmt or 1.379 bb).
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 974 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17,
following a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b)
associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products. This estimated projected
amount of 974 mb in food use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 967 mb for “current crop” MY 2015/16,
958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Seed Use: The USDA forecast seed use of approximately 69 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, up from 66 mb
in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 79 mb in MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY
2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 775 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, but is down marginally from 854 mb in MY 2014/15. Total U.S. wheat exports of
775 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 is the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior
to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). This USDA forecast scenario of 850
mb in U.S. wheat exports is given a 40% probability of occurring by KSU estimates.
Export projections by KSU of “next crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports are probability‐weighted by
scenario, with a combined 45% likelihood of 850 mb in U.S. wheat exports – equal to the USDA’s projection of
850 mb. There also seems to be a 15% probability of much larger U.S. wheat exports of, say, 1.050 bb
occurring in “next crop” MY 2016, very likely due to significant and at this time unforeseen major foreign crop
production problems in 2016 among key World exporting and/or using countries (Table 1).
The primary factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies – in
particular those of other major World wheat exporters, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of
competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That said, there are several factors that could
change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on
World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and
Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in
other major World wheat production areas due to the “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern likely
to occur in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to
foreign wheat production and/or other market events should occur in late 201 …