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Annual Book
81,546, down 25% from the previous year as drought conditions … 2008 with an average of the previous five years. All operations … relatively higher compared to
the previous year. The largest year to …
February 1, 2008
Water Policy
of motion that have been previously discussed. Different
assumptions …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
acre (8.1 percent) from the previous year. The United States pasture … following death. In that event, the estate can
be valued … However, in some estates, events can occur during the six-month …
December 3, 2019
Animal ID & Traceability
pathogen tracking in the event of the unintentional or deliberate … of the major concerns with previous attempts at animal traceability … since this type of system was previously tested, and
the advent of …
October 8, 2021
Ag Law Issues
to be
treated? Can those previously paid or withheld taxes be … from being offset against previously collected tax. Instead … address “clawing-back” previously withheld tax. It merely …
June 25, 2019
Feeder Cattle Pricing
pound above or below the previous day's settlement price.
All … days at 19. Prior to this event, nearby feeder cattle futures … moved at least 1% of the previous
settlement price, and on …
they made similar errors in previous years, then consider amending … that is contingent on future events• A formal claim follows … deadline
Change amounts previously submitted to IRS
To claim …
June 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th $7.13 ¼ Close
June 13th
$7.02 Low
June 12th
Page | 3
eventually impact 2014 World wheat markets if such conditions prolong and cause more pronounced crop
damage in coming weeks and months (such as occurred in both 2010 and 2012 in that region of the World).
“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices have responded to the release of
the May 9th USDA reports by trading generally lower. JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices
opened at $7.28 on Wednesday, June 11th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m.,
central time), and traded in a low‐high range of $7.03 ¼ to $7.31 ¼ during the session before closing $0.21 ¾
lower for the day at $7.04 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). On Thursday (June 12th) and Friday (June 13th), JULY 2014 Kansas
City wheat efutures prices traded in the range from a low of $7.02 on June 12th up to a high of $7.19 ½ on June
13th, before closing at $7.13 ¼ on Friday, June 13th – up $0.07 ¼ per bushel from the previous trading day.
Longer te …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 2
predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to p …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… USDA raised its projections of a) projected yields up to a
record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn production up to
14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA raised its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20
mb) from last year’s record high. Total use is forecast at 14.435 bb – down 212 mb from last year’s record
high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.487 bb (17.2% S/U) – up from 2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop”
MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is
down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given an 80% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These forecast scenarios vary from the USDA’s projection in the November 9, 2017 WASDE report
for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario) “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.548 bb production, 16.893 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.735 bb total use, 2.158 bb ending stocks, 14.65% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario) “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 90.404
ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.548 bb production, 16.893 bb total supplies,
1.800 bb exports, 14.310 bb total use, 2.583 bb ending stocks, 18.05% S/U, & $3.15 /bu U.S. corn average
price;
C ‐ KSU “Lower Yield” MY 2017/18 Scenario) “172.5 bu/ac – 14.307 bb crop” Scenario (5% probability)
assumes: 90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 172.5 bu/ac trend yield, 14.307 bb production, 16.652
bb total supplies, 14.435 bb total use, 2.217 bb ending stocks, 15.36% S/U, & $3.40 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: The presence of large beginning stocks of 2.295 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
corn supply‐demand balances in scenarios “A” and “C”, and hinder potential upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,043.9 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 972.9 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,270.5 mmt are down 1.45% from the record high 1,289.2 mmt in “old
crop” MY 2016/17, and still up 7.4% from 1,182.4 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.3% from the record
high of 163.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 203.9 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 226.6
mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.4 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 125.2 mmt
(15.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.9 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.7 mmt (13.8% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.1% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.7% in MY 2015/16, to 44.5% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 38.6%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may also eventually increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…