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March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly
by the availability of exportable corn supplies from South America through spring 2017. And fourth, the
always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World geo‐political events could provide an
unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S.
and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18. With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 90.000 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.004 ma), harvested acres of 82.400 ma (down 4.348 ma),
projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to
be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record
high). Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from a year ago – but within the range of $3.20‐$3.60 /bu for “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a
55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
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of alternative, lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.786 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.786 bb production, 16.156 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.971 bb ending stocks, 13.89% S/U, & $3.65 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.596 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.596 bb production, 15.966 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.886 bb ending stocks, 13.39% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.360 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.3605 bb production, 14.680 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.220 bb ending stocks, 8.92% S/U, & $4.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,040.2 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 8.3% from 960.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 2.4% from 1,015.6 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,250.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,170.5 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.3 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 149.0 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 23.0% from 121.1 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 4.8% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
217.6 mmt (21.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.4 mmt (21.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 217.6 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.1%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). Ongoing, strong
demand could cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any threats to the 2017
U.S. crop emerge.
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May 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
for sale through the winter into at least early‐spring and some into summer 2017. Second,
anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock
feeding through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at
least until what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global
markets during Summer 2017. And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign
economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets
in 2017. World geo‐political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain
markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate
depending on which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
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USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Early USDA projections are for 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma).
Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down 4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac
(vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast of 14.065 bb – down
from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.410 bb – down 530 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.300 bb – down 345 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.110 bb (14.76% S/U) – down from 2.295 bb (15.67% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.40 /bu (range of $3.00‐$3.80). This equals the midpoint
estimate of $3.40 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of occurring by KSU
Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the May 10, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.901 bb total
supplies, 14.255 bb total use, 1.646 bb ending stocks, 11.55% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.715 bb total supplies,
14.155 bb total use, 1.560 bb ending stocks, 11.02% S/U, & $4.10 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 80.535 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.080 bb production, 14.375 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 915 million bushels (mb) ending stocks, 6.80% S/U, & $6.00 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,033.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for
“next crop” MY 2017/18, down 3.0% from the record high of 1,065.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up
6.8% from 968.1 mmt in MY 2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,257.6 mmt are projected for
“next crop” MY 2017/18, down marginally from the record high of 1,278.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but
up from 1,177.5 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a near record 151.9 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.2% from
the record high of 158.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 26.6% from 119.95 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 195.3 mmt (18.4% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 223.9
mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.4 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States,
Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).
An ongoing, strong demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the
summer of 2017 IF any serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
May 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On May 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “current” 2015/16, and “next crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for
corn. The “next crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August
31, 2018. Earlier, on March 31st, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
(https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had released it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐
03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted
acreage estimates from the Prospective Plantings report were used by the USDA WAOB to develop the May
10th projection of 2017 U.S. corn production in the WASDE report. The grain stocks estimates released on
March 31st were used to calculate U.S. corn livestock feed and residual usage in “current” MY 2016/17.
Following its normal procedures, the next supply‐demand and price forecasts for “next crop” 2017/18
from the USDA will be released in the June 9, 2017 USDA WASDE report.
CME JULY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Trends
JULY 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.40 ¼ on August 31, 2016, JULY 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended up to a high of $3.81 ¾ on October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2017
corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.57 ¼ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of
$3.93 ¾ on February 16, 2017. Since then, JULY 2017 corn futures traded in the range from lows $3.61 ¾ on
March 27th and $3.60 ¾ on April 21st to highs of $3.79 ¼ on April 3rd, $3.79 ¼ on April 13th, and $3.79 on May
1st, before closing at $3.71 ½ on May 17, 2017.
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to JULY 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.58 1/2 on August 31, 2016,
DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices trended up to a high of $3.95 ¼ on
October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of
$3.74 ¼ on November 15th and $3.74 ½ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of $4.03 ¾ on
February 16, 2017 and $4.04 on February 28th. Since then, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures traded in the range
from lows $3.78 ¼ on March 27th and $3.79 ¼ on April 21st to highs of $3.95 on April 3rd, $3.95 ¾ on April 13th,
and $3.95 ¾ on May 1st, before closing at $3.89 on May 17, 2017.
CME Corn Futures 2017 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and SEPTEMBER 2017 corn futures
on Wednesday, May 17th was $0.07 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $3.79 ¼ for SEPTEMBER 2017 Corn less $3.71 ½ for JULY
2017 Corn), or $0.03875 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas
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grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts.
Figure 1. JULY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of May 17, 2017)
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Contents
Macroeconomic Effects on Poverty Rate: A Case Study of Northern Ghana ............................................... 1
Income, Expenditure Shares, Food Choices and Food Security in Northern Ghana ................................... 16
Do Adult Equivalence Scales Matter in Poverty Estimates? A Case Study from Ghana ............................. 23
A Cautionary Note on Comparing Poverty Prevalence Rates ..................................................................... 43
Securing Africa’s Middle Class: The Case of Northern Ghana .................................................................... 53
The Effect of Transaction Costs on Grain and Oilseed Farmers’ Market Participation in Sub‐Saharan
Africa: Recent Evidence from Northern Ghana ......................................................................................... 64
Reducing Gender Differences in Agricultural Performance in Northern Ghana ........................................ 82
Production Efficiency of Smallholder Farms in Northern Ghana ................................................................ 99
Does Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Matter in Children’s Health Status? Insights from Northern
Ghana ........................................................................................................................................................ 115
Recent Evidence of Health Effects of Women Empowerment: A Case Study of Northern Ghana ........... 130
1
Macroeconomic Effects on Poverty Rate: A Case Study of Northern
Ghana
Yacob Zereyesus and Vincent Amanor‐Boadu
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
March 2015
Introduction
The prevalence of extreme poverty is externally determined by the established poverty line. In recent
years, it has been based on a daily per capita expenditure of $1.25, measured in 2005 Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP). Using PPP aims to eliminate the effect of exchange rates.
PPP is based on the Law of One Price – in the absence of transaction costs and trade barriers, identical
traded goods will have the same price in all markets when the prices are denominated in the same
currency. This implies that in the presence of transaction costs and trade barriers, identical traded
goods do not have the same price in all markets.
PPP is calculated in three stages:
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September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
Korea for pork.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada … leaders and policymakers.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada … traceability systems. Smith et al. (2005) reported that the United …