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May 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – Focus on “New Crop” 2015/16 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In the March 31, 2015 USDA Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total
planted acreage would be 89.199 million acres (ma), down 2.398 ma (‐1.5%) from 90.597 ma in 2014, down
6.166 ma (‐6.5%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.092 ma (‐8.3%) from 97.291 ma in 2012, and down from
91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Given the USDA’s implicit assumption of an average harvested‐to‐planted acreage of 91.6%, 2015 U.S. corn
harvested acreage would be approximately 81.715 ma, down 1.421 ma (‐1.7%) from 83.136 ma in 2014, down
5.736 ma (‐6.6%) from 87.451 ma in 2013, down 5.650 ma (‐6.5%) from 87.365 ma in 2012, and down from
83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from
the January‐May USDA reports, and is higher than the 166.8 bu/ac estimate for 2015 in the May WASDE report
(Table 1 and Figure 4). Although this early 2015 USDA projection of 166.8 bu/ac is down from 171.0 bu/ac in
2014, it would be the second highest U.S. corn yield on record, being up from 158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought
affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010, and up from the previous
historic record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (89.199 ma – from the USDA),
harvested acreage (81.715 ma – a KSU assumption calculated by dividing the USDA’s 2015 production forecast
by the 2015 yield projection), and yield (166.8 ma – USDA), 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.630 billion
bushels (bb) – down from the record high of 14.216 bb 2014, and the previous record high of 13.829 bb in
2013 – but up from 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.314 bb in 2011, 12.425 bb in 2010, and 13.067 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are a record high 15.506 bb
– resulting from beginning stocks of 1.851 bb, projected 2015 production of 13.630 bb, and projected imports
of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 5). Total supplies of near 15.506 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16
would be a record high, being comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.749 bb in
MY 2009/10, 14.161 bb in MY 2010/11, 13.471 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13,
14.686 bb in MY 2013/14, and the previous record high of 15.472 bb in “current” MY 2014/15.
The USDA forecast of beginning stocks of 1.851 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up substantially from
1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13,
and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, and at least moderately larger than 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY
2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.851 bb
is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY 1996/97, and is the highest since 1.967 bb in
MY 2006/07 and 2.114 bb in MY 2005/07 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
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Projected imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are equal to “current” MY 2014/15, but down
from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160
mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to
29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from 5.200 bb in “current” MY 2014/15, but up from 5.134 bb in MY
2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7).
Figure 7 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.830‐5.438 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over
the period of September 1, 2014 through May 8, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to
reach 5.170 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.170 bb is only 30 mb less than the USDA’s
May 12, 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.200 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current
crop” MY 2014/15, with 36 of 52 weeks (69.2%) of the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 8 – which shows estimated a) DDGS
corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn
usage since MY 1989/90.
This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of
corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. According these estimates,
since MY 2010/11 approximately 0.993‐1.130 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel‐weights of DDGS are projected
either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year – i.e., 1.108 bb in
DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.004 bb in MY 2012/13, 993 mb in MY
2013/14, and 1.006 bb in both “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16. Over the five most
recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 299 to 479 mb,
– i.e., 326 mb in DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 299 mb in MY 2011/12, 322 mb in MY 2012/13,
473 mb in MY 2013/14, and a record high 479 mb in both “current crop” MY 2014/15 and in “new crop” MY
2015/16.
U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.900 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 1.825 bb
(up 25 mb) in “current” MY 2014/15, less than 1.917 bb in MY 2013/14, and up sharply from 730 mb in MY
2013/14 – the 41 year low (since MY 1975/76) (Table 1, Figures 6 and 8).
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html), as of May 7th, through the 36th week of “current crop” MY 2014/15 (36 of 52 weeks), 1.145 bb of
U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 69.2% of the USDA’s updated projection for
“current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.825 bb. An additional 498.8 mb of U.S. corn had been pre‐sold for future
export shipments during the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of
“current crop” MY 2014/15).
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Adding together 1,145.1 mb in past shipments plus 498.8 mb in forward sales amounts to 1,634.9 mb, or
89.6% of the USDA’s 1.825 bb U.S. corn export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the May 12th USDA
WASDE report with 69.2% (36/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. United States’ corn exports will
need to average 42.5 mb per week for the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to achieve
the USDA’s 1.825 bb projection. This compares to 44.7 mb and 43.7 mb of export shipments for the weeks
ending April 30th and May 7th, respectively – i.e., each being ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s
export projection, respectively.
Non‐Ethanol FSI: Forecast non‐ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.360 bb in “new crop” MY
2015/16 is greater than 1.347 bb in “current” MY 2014/15 (reduced 48 mb from the April WASDE), and
compares to 1.369 bb in MY 2013/14 (up 2 mb), and 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1, Figures 6 and 8).
Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.300 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up
from 5.250 bb for “current” MY 2014/15, 5.034 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13, and 4.520 bb in
MY 2011/12 (Table 1, Figures 6 and 8). These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated
with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) reported by the USDA over the
same time period as illustrated in the following information.
In the USDA May 14th Feed Outlook Report (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS‐05‐14‐2015.pdf) the
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2013/14 through “new crop” MY 2015/16
time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat –
is estimated to be 134.3 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2013/14 (95.2% corn), and 141.8 mmt in “current”
MY 2014/15 (94.1% corn), and is projected to be 144.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (93.36% corn). Over
this same 3 year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAUs) are estimated to be 110.8 million in
MY 2013/14, 93.2 million in “current” MY 2014/15, and 94.7 million in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.212 metric tons per
animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2013/14, and 1.521 mt/au in “current” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 1.524
mt/au in “new crop” MY 2015/16. As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is
expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to the record “large crop”
years of MY 2013/14 and “current” MY 2014/15, and now into the expected third consecutive large crop year
in “new crop” MY 2015/16 for corn and other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds fed per
animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has increased – helping to bring downward pressure on the prices of
U.S. corn and other feedgrains.
Total Use of U.S. Corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a record high 13.760 bb – up from the
current record highs of 13.622 bb in “current” MY 2014/15, and 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, and up sharply from
11.083 bb in drought‐affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 6 and 8). United States’ total corn use has
varied widely in recent marketing years – due largely to changes in available U.S. corn supplies. Corn use in the
U.S. over time has changed from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, to 12.008 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.041 bb in MY
2009/10, 13.033 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.482 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2013/14, the one time record
high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, the previous record high amount of 13.622 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15,
and now the new projected record high of 13.760 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices
U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 1.746 bb – down 105 mb from
1.851 bb in “current” MY 2014/15, but up from 1.232 bb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 & Figure 9). Since MY
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2006/07 (1.304 bb), U.S. corn ending stocks have been 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708
bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13,
1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, 1.851 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now 1.746 bb in “new crop” MY
2015/16.
Projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 12.69% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 13.59% in
“current” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10). On a year‐by‐year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks‐to‐
use trended downward from 12.75% in MY 2007/08 and 13.94% in MY 2008/09, to 13.10% in MY 2009/10,
8.65% in MY 2010/11, 7.92% in MY 2011/12, and then down to 7.41% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13,
before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 9.16% in MY 2013/14, and then to 13.49% in “current” MY
2014/15 – with a projected decline to 12.69% in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be in the range of $3.20‐$3.80 bu/ac
(midpoint = $3.50) (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10). Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol
production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved first higher, then lower, and then higher again, changing from
$3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY
2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2013/14.
However, if the May 12th WASDE projection holds true, prices will now have declined for three consecutive
years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, down to $3.55‐$3.75
(midpoint = $3.65) in “current crop” MY 2014/15, and now down to $3.20‐$3.80 in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
I‐D. KSU Corn Market Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2015/16
Kansas State University Extension has provided forecasts of U.S. corn supply‐demand balances and prices
for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year to complement and expand upon those of the USDA, with details
provided below. Three probability‐weighted Kansas State University (KSU) projections are provided.
The first scenario is based on USDA reported U.S. corn acreage with a normal crop “trend yield” of 162.25
bu/ac – given a 55% probability of occurring in 2015. The second scenario is based on lower U.S. corn planted
acreage in 2015 than projected by the USDA, again coupled with a normal crop “trend yield” of 162.25 bu/ac –
given a 25% probability of occurring in 2015. The third scenario is based on USDA planted acreage projections
and a short crop “low yield” of 155.0 bu/ac (given a 20% probability of occurring in 2015).
KSU Scenario #1 – A “Normal Crop” of 13.262 bb with 55% Likelihood of Occurring
For “new crop” MY 2015/16, this “normal crop” trend line yield KSU projection reflects the likelihood of a
reduction in U.S. corn planted acreage in 2015, and how a possible return to long term trend line U.S. corn
yields in 2015 along with a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production, would likely affect U.S. corn supply‐
demand balances and prices in the coming “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015
through August 31, 2016. This scenario is thought to have approximately a 55% probability of occurring (i.e.,
5.5 out of 10) at this point in time.
Specifically, this KSU U.S. corn supply‐demand scenario assumes that 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage will
be down 1.398 million acres (ma) to 89.199 ma (equal to the USDA’s May WASDE projection), with 2015 U.S.
corn harvested acreage also down 1.421 ma to 81.715 ma (also equal to the USDA May WASDE projection)
(Table 1 and Figure 3). With a return to long term (1973‐2014) trend line U.S. corn yields of 162.3 bu/ac, 2015
U.S. corn production is forecast to be 13.262 bb.
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Following these projections of corn production for “new crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn usage is then
estimated to be a record high 13.730 – but down from the USDA’s May 2015 projection of 13.760 bb for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
KSU estimates are for U.S. corn ending stocks to be 1.408 bb, and for % ending stocks‐to‐use of 10.25% for
“new crop” MY 2015/16. United State’s corn average prices would be projected to average near $4.25 /bu for
“new crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figures 9 and 10).
Following is the “normal crop / trend yield” U.S. corn supply‐demand and price scenario for “new crop” MY
2015/16 – given a 55% probability of occurring.
1st KSU Scenario for “New Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand & Prices
Estimated Probability of Occurring = 55% …
September 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ven largely by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016, and 4) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy,
and other commodity markets. For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S.
Federal Reserve could affect U.S. interest rates, or geo‐political events could occur that would “shock” World
energy and grain markets.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn
plantings of 94.148 ma (up 6.149 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.550 ma (up 5.801 ma from 2015),
record high projected yields of 174.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the current record high of 171.0 bu/ac
in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.093 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the
current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.859 bb (record high), total use of 14.475 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.384 bb (16.47% S/U) – up from 1.716 bb (12.54% S/U) in “old crop” MY
2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $2.90‐$3.50 (midpoint = $3.20 /bu) – being down from $3.60 /bu for “old crop” MY
2015/16. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a lower U.S. corn yields and production
than the September 12th USDA WASDE report.
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KSU Scenario A) “Minor Crop Problems – 14.9 bb” Scenario (30% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted,
86.550 ma harvested, 172.0 bu/ac yield, 14.887 bb production, 16.653 bb total supplies, 14.450 bb total use,
2.203 bb ending stocks, 15.25% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
KSU Scenario B) “Moderate Crop Problems – 14.5 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma
planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 168.0 bu/ac yield, 14.540 bb production, 16.306 bb total supplies, 14.344 bb
total use, 1.962 bb ending stocks, 13.68% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
KSU Scenario C) “More Serious Crop Problems – 14.2 bb” Scenario (10% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma
planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 14.194 bb production, 15.190 bb total supplies, 14.239 bb
total use, 1.721 bb ending stocks, 12.09% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,026.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,013.6 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn total supplies of 1,235.9 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,167.3 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.9 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of 139.8 mmt are
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7
mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 219.5 mmt (21.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17
are up from 209.25 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.3 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY
2014/15.
Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January‐May 2016, 2nd crop harvested
in May‐August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.
This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided some support for U.S. corn exports and even
ethanol production (via exports). But expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a
predominant negative impact on U.S. corn market prices to date. Brazilian corn production is forecast by the
USDA to rebound back to 82.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).
China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September‐October 2016) is estimated to be
216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65
mmt in MY 2014/15. Most of the focus in World corn markets is on Chinese ending stocks. Ending stocks of
corn in China are projected to be 103.65 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt
(50.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 110.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
…
December 28, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
r U.S.
and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity
markets in 2017.
For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases
in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn
have a negative impact on U.S. corn exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide an unanticipated
“shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn
markets being difficult to anticipate.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Current” MY 2016/17: With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn plantings
of 94.490 ma, harvested acres of 86.836 ma, record high projected yields of 175.1 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in
2015 and the previous record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record
high 15.226 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the previous record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “current” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 17.031 bb (record high), total use of 14.610 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.403 bb (16.45% S/U) – up from 1.738 bb (12.72% S/U) in MY 2015/16
and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be
in the range of $3.05‐$3.65 (midpoint = $3.35 /bu) – being down from $3.61 /bu for MY 2015/16. (continued)
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 90.000 ma (down 4.490 ma), harvested acres of 82.300 ma (down 4.536 ma), projected yields of
Page | 2
170.8 bu/ac (vs the record high of 175.3 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.060 bb – down
from the record high of 15.226 bb in 2016.
With forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 16.513 bb (down 500 mb from last year’s record high),
total use of 14.215 bb (down 395 mb from last year’s record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.298 bb
(16.17% S/U) – down from 2.403 bb (16.45% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 – U.S. corn prices are projected by
the USDA to average $3.30 /bu. This scenario is given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag
Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
of lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the December 1st USDA early supply‐
demand estimate for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.4 bu/ac – 13.777 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 167.4 bu/ac trend yield, 13.777 bb production, 16.230 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.015 bb ending stocks, 14.18% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario 2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.580 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.580 bb production, 16.033 bb total supplies,
14.215 bb total use, 1.818 bb ending stocks, 12.79% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.345 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.345 bb production, 14.798 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.338 bb ending stocks, 9.94% S/U, & $4.30 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,039.7 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 8.2% from 961.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 2.5% from 1,014.0 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,248.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY
2016/17, up from 1,169.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,188.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 147.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 21.8% from 121.2 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 3.9% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
222.25 mmt (21.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 208.95 mmt (21.8% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 208.3 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at 222.25
mmt, World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to actually decline
marginally to 21.7% ‐ indicative that strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue –
especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather conditions in the last
year.
…
September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
s to the USDA projection are
presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood that exists of higher U.S.
soybean acreage, lower yields and lower production, and higher prices than projected by the USDA in the
September 12, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Lower Yield” Scenario #1) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (30%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 4.226 bb total use, 422 mb ending stocks, 9.99% S/U, & $9.70 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Very Low Yield” Scenario #2) “45.85 bu/ac – 4.085 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 45.85 bu/ac yield, 4.085 bb production,
4.455 bb total supplies, 4.106 bb total use, 349 mb ending stocks, 8.50% S/U, & $10.20 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard World Event” Scenario #3) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 3.861 bb total use, 787 mb ending stocks, 20.38% S/U, & $7.00 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
Note: The presence of large beginning stocks of 345 mb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
supply‐demand balances along with prospects for a record large 2017 U.S. soybean crop of 4.431 bb (USDA).
Prospects for such large supplies of soybeans hinders any upward price responses in the KSU Scenarios A, B and
C above.
…
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
authority for LMR lapsing in 2005, the final rule of 2008 that … product lines. These types of events, occurring at a rapid
pace … Schroeder, 2006; Perry et al., 2005; Schroeder, Grunewald, and …
August 28, 2025
Mandatory Price Reporting
Exhibit 2.1.1. Notable Events in LMR and the Broader Pork …
June 28, 2018
Hedging & Options
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
Summary Book - All Counties
through a variety of weather events. Dryland wheat
yields were … 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
D
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l
a
r
s …