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August 1, 2021
Breakout Sessions
costs
into Middle Eastern & other foreign markets
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2021 … of financial-geopolitical events effecting grain markets?
• … financial / geopolitical events do happen – ORride it out …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
competition for acres from other Kansas crops in 2022 (Feedgrains … of financial-geopolitical events effecting grain markets?
• … financial / geopolitical events do happen – ORride it out …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
and 34.1%
ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “current” MY 2016/17. The “large crop‐over supply” situation that now
exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on U.S. and
World wheat prices.
However, the broader large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be “hiding”
at least a couple of other important market issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in the World is
plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor may eventually help exports
of both U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good quality) and U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat (moderate protein – good quality) relative to World wheat export competitors. As evidence of this,
exports of U.S. HRW wheat have been occurring at the pace needed to meet USDA projections – helped by
both low purchase prices and acceptable protein and quality. This raises the outside possibility of improved
U.S. HRW prices in coming months. Second, while the supply of wheat in World markets overall has grown,
the supply of wheat in the “World Less China” is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” in
“current crop” MY 2016/17 compared to a year ago – down to the tightest supply‐balances situation since MY
2013/14. If this “China factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available global supplies of exportable
wheat to occur in coming months, it could have a positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in Spring 2017.
Even so, given the broader World wheat market’s current focus – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly by spring‐summer 2017. Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is a serious
negative factor that is limiting the competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports. These factors have resulted
in higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and have caused U.S. and Kansas wheat cash
prices to fall sharply – down to and below the marketing loan rate in most of Kansas in fall / early winter 2016.
Page | 2
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: On December 1, 2016 the USDA
released their preliminary Long Term Agricultural Projections to 2026, in which they projected 2017 U.S.
wheat plantings of 48.500 million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in 2015. The USDA also forecast 2016
harvested acres of 41.100 ma which would be down from 43.890 ma a year ago. Trendline 2017 wheat yields
for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac, while 2017 U.S. wheat
production is forecast to be 1.936 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015. Projected “next crop” MY
2017/18 total supplies are 3.199 bb (down from 3.410 bb in “current” MY 2016/17), with total use of 2.206 bb
(down from 2.267 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks of 933 million bushels (mb)
(vs 1.143 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.0% S/U (vs 50.4% last year and 50.0% the
previous year). United States wheat average prices are projected to average $4.00 /bu – up from $3.70 in
“current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed
by Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of
occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume lower 2017 U.S. planted (47.624 ma) and harvested (38.385 ma)
wheat acres than the USDA – due to larger than normal amounts of “graze out” and “crop switching” in 2017.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18:
47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb total supplies,
960 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total use, 876 mb ending stocks, 39.98% S/U, & $4.00‐
$4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield, +20% Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb
total supplies, 1.152 bb exports***, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.383 bb total use, 684 mb ending stocks,
24.10% S/U, & $5.25‐$5.75 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Acres, Short Crop Yield” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac low yield***, 1.674 bb production, 2.937 bb
total supplies, 925 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.156 bb total use, 781 mb ending stocks, 36.22%
S/U, & $4.40‐$4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
Breakout Sessions
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April 21, 2022
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May 1, 2023
Production Publications
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June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
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June 9, 2020
Ag Law Issues
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volatilizing … to commercial crops
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December 1, 2011
States, there are several other countries where horse meat … to empirical modeling.
Other data used in the hedonic … decline assumes that all other factors are held constant …
February 12, 2024
Ag Law Issues
opinion is out-of-step with other court opinions on the issue … without a tax realization event such as a sale. It’s a … without a tax realization event. The taxpayers in the case …