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July 21, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
CME Corn Futures
Nov. 20, 2014 – July 20, 2015
Close = $4.16 on 7/20/2015
SEPT 2015 CME Corn Futures
Nov. 20, 2014 – July 20, 2015
Close = $4.05 on 7/20/2015
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I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – Focus on “New Crop” 2015/16 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres from the June 30th Acreage report
were used without adjustment in the July 10th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. In the June 30,
2015 USDA Acreage report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 88.897
million acres (ma), down 302,000 acres from 89.199 ma projected earlier in the March 31st USDA Prospective
Plantings report. This projection of 88.897 ma of U.S. corn planted in 2015 is down 1.700 ma (‐1.9%) from
90.597 ma in 2014, down 6.468 ma (‐6.8%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.394 ma (‐8.6%) from the record
high of 97.291 ma in 2012, and down from 91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total harvested acreage would be 81.101 million acres (ma),
nearly equal to the USDA WAOB projection in the June 10th WASDE report. This projection of 81.101 ma of
U.S. corn harvested in 2015 is down 2.035 ma (‐2.4%) from 83.136 ma in 2014, down 6.350 ma (‐7.3%) from
the record high of 87.451 ma in 2013, down 6.534 ma (‐7.2%) from 87.365 ma in 2012, and down from 83.981
ma in 2011. (Table 1 and Figure 3). The USDA implicitly projected that the proportion of harvested‐to‐planted
acreage in 2015 is 91.2%, down from 91.8% in 2014, and 91.7% in 2013, but up from 89.9% in drought‐stricken
2012.
The 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from
the January‐June 2015 USDA reports, and is higher than the 166.8 bu/ac estimate for 2015 in the July 10th
WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 4). Although this early 2015 USDA projection of 166.8 bu/ac is down from
171.0 bu/ac in 2014, it would still be the second highest U.S. corn yield on record, being up from 158.1 bu/ac in
2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010, and up
from the previous historic record high of …
July 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
roduction in North America or other major wheat producing regions of the World, or geopolitically‐driven
disruptions to trade World wheat markets in such places as the Middle East or the Black Sea region. Unless or
until such disruptive events as these would occur, World wheat market prospects are pointing to steady‐to‐
lower World wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: Compared to a year earlier, the USDA projected
lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat usage, an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks and %
stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA’s projected “new crop” market scenario
is: 56.5 million acres (ma) planted, 46.2 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested‐to‐planted acres, 43.1 bu/ac yield (up
from 42.3 bu/ac a month ago), a 1.992 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop (up 50 million bushels or ‘mb’),
2.741 bb total supplies (up 46 mb), 900 mb exports (down 25 mb), 2.081 bb total use (down 40 mb), 660 mb
ending stocks (up 86 mb), 31.7% ending stocks‐to‐use (up from 27.1%), and $6.60 average price per bu. (range
of $6.00 to $7.20) – down from $7.00 /bu.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐
demand balances and prices are as follows: a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 65% prob. of 46.2 ma harvested,
43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total
use, 660 mb ending stocks, 31.7% S/U, & $6.10 /bu; b) “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 45.4 ma
harvested, low yields of 41.1 bu/ac (both harvested acres and yield lower than USDA), 1.868 bb 2014 U.S.
wheat production, 2.628 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 890 mb exports, 2.061 bb total use, 567 mb ending stocks,
27.5% S/U, & $6.55 /bu; and c) “Expected Production – Higher Exports” Scenario: 15% prob. of 46.2 ma
harvested, yields of 43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.050 bb
exports (up 150 mb from USDA forecast), 2.231 bb total use, 510 mb ending stocks, 22.9% S/U, & $7.50 /bu.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 889.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally
from 889.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 854.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat
ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 189.5 mmt (27.0% S/U) are up from 184.3 mmt (26.1% S/U) in MY
2013/14, and from 175.6 mmt (25.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.
For market perspective these levels of World wheat stocks need to be analyzed relative to the historic World
wheat stocks minimum of 129.4 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08. Year‐over‐year increases are projected for
wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for Argentina (+4.5 mmt), Brazil (+0.4 mmt), and Russia (+1.0 mmt),
with decreases forecast for the U.S. (‐7.7 mmt), Australia (‐0.5 mmt), Canada (‐1.5 mmt), the EU (‐2.5 mmt),
India (‐2.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (‐2.4 mmt), and Ukraine (‐0.5 mmt). …
December 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or
financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.
For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases
in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn
have a negative impact on U.S. grain sorghum exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide
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unanticipated “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets. The impact on the direction of U.S. and
World grain sorghum and corn markets from these potential disruptions is difficult to anticipate or predict.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Current” MY 2016/17: The USDA has projected of 2016 U.S. sorghum
plantings of 6.761 ma, harvested acres of 6.045 ma, record high yields of 76.5 bu/ac (vs 76.0 bu/ac in 2015 and
67.6 bu/ac in 2014), resulting in a 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 462 mb – down from
597 mb in 2015, but above 433 mb in 2014, and 392 mb in 2013.
With forecast “current” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 500 mb, total use of 465 mb, and projected ending stocks
of 35 mb (7.48% S/U), U.S. grain sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.80‐$3.30
(midpoint = $3.05 /bu). Ending stocks of 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 compare to 37 mb
(6.28% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and 18 mb (4.10% S/U) in MY 2004/05. United States grain sorghum prices of
$3.05 /bu in “current” MY 2016/17 continue the downward trend from $3.31 /bu in MY 2015/16, $4.03 in MY
2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $6.33 /bu in the drought year of MY 2012/13.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S.
sorghum plantings of 6.300 ma (down 461,000 acres), harvested acres of 5.400 ma (down 645,000 acres),
projected yields of 67.1 bu/ac (vs the record high of 76.5 bu in 2016), 2017 U.S. grain sorghum production is
forecast to be 362 mb – down from 462 mb in 2016, and 597 mb in 2015.
With forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 397 mb (down from 500 mb last year and 620 mb the
year before), total use of 365 mb (down from 465 mb last year and 583 the year before), and projected ending
stocks of 32 mb (8.76% S/U) – down from 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 – U.S. sorghum prices
are projected by the USDA to average $3.10 /bu.
Note: This is a “large U.S. feedgrain crop” – “no major U.S. or Foreign crop problem” scenario. Emerging
production threats and the actual outcome of 2017 U.S. grain sorghum and corn production will drive the U.S.
grain sorghum market in “next crop” MY 2017/18.
World Coarse Grain Supply‐Demand: Record high World coarse grain production of 1,329.35 million metric
tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 6.4% from 1,249.65 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 1.8%
from 1,306.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. Record high World coarse grain total supplies of 1,574.15 mmt are
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,495.0 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,517.2 mmt in MY
2014/15. “Coarse grains” include grain sorghum, corn, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
World coarse grain exports of 185.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 12.4% from 164.8 mmt
in MY 2015/16, and down 0.5% from 186.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World coarse grain
ending stocks of 254.9 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 244.8 mmt (19.6% S/U) in MY
2015/16, but down from 245.4 mmt (19.3% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at
254.9 mmt, World coarse grain percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to
actually decline marginally to 19.3% ‐ indicative that strong World demand for coarse grains at low prices is
expected to continue – especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather
conditions in the last year.
…
May 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
for sale through the winter into at least early‐spring and some into summer 2017. Second,
anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock
feeding through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at
least until what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global
markets during Summer 2017. And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign
economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets
in 2017. World geo‐political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain
markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate
depending on which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
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USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Early USDA projections are for 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma).
Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down 4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac
(vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast of 14.065 bb – down
from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.410 bb – down 530 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.300 bb – down 345 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.110 bb (14.76% S/U) – down from 2.295 bb (15.67% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.40 /bu (range of $3.00‐$3.80). This equals the midpoint
estimate of $3.40 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of occurring by KSU
Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the May 10, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.901 bb total
supplies, 14.255 bb total use, 1.646 bb ending stocks, 11.55% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.715 bb total supplies,
14.155 bb total use, 1.560 bb ending stocks, 11.02% S/U, & $4.10 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 80.535 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.080 bb production, 14.375 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 915 million bushels (mb) ending stocks, 6.80% S/U, & $6.00 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,033.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for
“next crop” MY 2017/18, down 3.0% from the record high of 1,065.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up
6.8% from 968.1 mmt in MY 2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,257.6 mmt are projected for
“next crop” MY 2017/18, down marginally from the record high of 1,278.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but
up from 1,177.5 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a near record 151.9 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.2% from
the record high of 158.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 26.6% from 119.95 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 195.3 mmt (18.4% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 223.9
mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.4 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States,
Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).
An ongoing, strong demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the
summer of 2017 IF any serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
May 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On May 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “current” 2015/16, and “next crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for
corn. The “next crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August
31, 2018. Earlier, on March 31st, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
(https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had released it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐
03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted
acreage estimates from the Prospective Plantings report were used by the USDA WAOB to develop the May
10th projection of 2017 U.S. corn production in the WASDE report. The grain stocks estimates released on
March 31st were used to calculate U.S. corn livestock feed and residual usage in “current” MY 2016/17.
Following its normal procedures, the next supply‐demand and price forecasts for “next crop” 2017/18
from the USDA will be released in the June 9, 2017 USDA WASDE report.
CME JULY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Trends
JULY 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.40 ¼ on August 31, 2016, JULY 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended up to a high of $3.81 ¾ on October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2017
corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.57 ¼ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of
$3.93 ¾ on February 16, 2017. Since then, JULY 2017 corn futures traded in the range from lows $3.61 ¾ on
March 27th and $3.60 ¾ on April 21st to highs of $3.79 ¼ on April 3rd, $3.79 ¼ on April 13th, and $3.79 on May
1st, before closing at $3.71 ½ on May 17, 2017.
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to JULY 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.58 1/2 on August 31, 2016,
DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices trended up to a high of $3.95 ¼ on
October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of
$3.74 ¼ on November 15th and $3.74 ½ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of $4.03 ¾ on
February 16, 2017 and $4.04 on February 28th. Since then, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures traded in the range
from lows $3.78 ¼ on March 27th and $3.79 ¼ on April 21st to highs of $3.95 on April 3rd, $3.95 ¾ on April 13th,
and $3.95 ¾ on May 1st, before closing at $3.89 on May 17, 2017.
CME Corn Futures 2017 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and SEPTEMBER 2017 corn futures
on Wednesday, May 17th was $0.07 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $3.79 ¼ for SEPTEMBER 2017 Corn less $3.71 ½ for JULY
2017 Corn), or $0.03875 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas
Page | 4
grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts.
Figure 1. JULY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of May 17, 2017)
ne …
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
tighter foreign stocks and percent (%) stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing
South American corn exports in spring 2018.
Current forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 94.5 million metric tons (mmt) in this
marketing year – versus 98.5 mmt last year ‐ with harvests lasting from February through May. However,
forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production to be 36.0 mmt in this marketing year – versus 41.0 mmt a
year ago ‐ with harvests lasting from March through May. The Argentina production figure is at risk to falling
further. To the degree that 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil is limited by crop weather
issues, there will likely be subsequent support U.S. corn export prospects.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecasts
In the March 8th WASDE report, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) 2017 U.S. corn production of
14.604 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016, and b) “old crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of
16.947 bb – up marginally from a year earlier. Total use is forecast at 14.820 bb – raised 225 mb from the
February WASDE on prospects for a) higher ethanol use of 5.575 bb (raised 50 mb), and b) higher exports of
2.225 bb (raised 175 mb). Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.127 bb (14.35% Stocks/Use) – down 225 mb
from February, and down from 2.293 bb (15.65% S/U) in MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected
to average $3.35 /bu (range of $3.15‐$3.55). This is down $0.01 /bu from $3.36 /bu from MY 2016/17.
At the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23, 2018, the USDA forecast that a)
2018 U.S. corn production would be 14.390 bb – based on 90.0 million acres (ma) planted, 82.7 ma harvested,
and a yield of 174.0 bu. Total use is forecast at 14.520 bb – with projections of ethanol use at 5.650 bb (a
record high), non‐ethanol food seed and industrial use at 1.495 bb (also a record high), exports of 1.900 bb
(down 325 mb from the current marketing year), and feed and residual use of 5.475 mb (down 75 mb from this
year). After a KSU‐adjustment for lower beginning stocks based on the March 8th WASDE report, ending stocks
are projected to be a 2.047 bb (14.10% Stocks/Use) – with both being down moderately from “old crop” MY
2017/18 levels. United States’ corn prices are projected to average a KSU‐adjusted $3.45 /bu (up $0.05‐$0.10
Page | 3
from this year). It is probable that the export projection for “new crop” MY 2018/19 may be raised in coming
months due to South American production problems – causing these ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use
estimates to tighten further. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2018/19. These projections are to show how varying 2018 U.S. corn production outcomes could affect U.S.
corn supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
A ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 176.6 bu/ac record yield (equal to
2017 record high), 14.605 bb production, 16.782 bb total supplies, 14.600 bb total use, 2.182 bb ending
stocks, 14.95% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yield (equal to 2009
yield), 13.596 bb production, 15.773 bb total supplies, 14.315 bb total use, 1.458 bb ending stocks, 10.19%
S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price;
6. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,041.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.1% from the record of 1,075.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 973.45 mmt in MY 2015/16. World
corn total supplies of 1,273.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are forecast to be down moderately from the
record high 1,290.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 155.9 mmt are projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down 2.4% from the record
high of 159.8 mmt in MY 2016/17, and up 30.2% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World corn ending
stocks of 199.2 mmt (18.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 231.9 mmt (21.9%
S/U) in MY 2016/17, and from 215.0 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn
ending stocks of 145.1 mmt (17.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from 173.6 mmt (21.9% S/U) in
MY 2016/17, and from 170.9 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.6 mmt
(14.35% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down from 131.1 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2016/17, but up from 104.2
mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct
influence are projected to be approximately 22% lower (i.e., 14.35% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China” versus
18.5% S/U for the “World” overall in “old crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 43.4% in MY 2016/17, and down to 39.9% in “old
crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to reduce
feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions
may eventual increase Chinese import demand for U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
enactment (7/31/15) as well as to previously filed returns that are still … passive activity allows use of previously suspended PALs attributable … and grantor is not a tax event
o Trust’s income, loss …
March 5, 2015
Commodity Program Papers
Assuming FSA follows the previous ACRE program method,
FSA … Anyone can create a Black Swan event over the next 4
years where … http://www.agmanager.info/events/Webinars/default.asp …
Summary Book - All Counties
through a variety of weather events. Dryland wheat
yields were … above is an extension of the previous figure. The cluster of farms … 20-60% irrigated
farms have previously been in the dryland crop …
Summary Book - All Counties
corn had several weather events throughout the year leading … Also as mentioned on the
previous page, 2019 MFP payments were … above is an extension of the previous figure. The cluster of farms …
December 1, 2016
Financial Management
recovery on collateral in the event of liquidation.
The … interest payments in the event of liquidation.
The … not considered a
taxable event.
If, at a later time, all …