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December 7, 2016
Animal Health
Economics|
How big is the risk? We worry about
opening the border to chilled beef
from Brazil. Can we put the risks of an
outbreak of FMD or other diseases in
perspective?
Department … Increased active surveillance by producers,
among other biosecurity measures…
Department …
June 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On June 10th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its June 2016 Crop
Production report – containing U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage, yield and production forecasts for 2016 –
with information specific to the 2016 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and
white winter (WW) wheat crops.
The NASS 2016 U.S. winter wheat production forecast was derived by USDA using a combination of a) an
objective yield survey, and b) a farmer operator survey – both conducted during the May 25 – June 7 period.
The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 states that accounted for 68% of 2015 U.S. winter wheat
production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data, and to seek
permission to randomly locate sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. Projected biological yields were
calculated from these farmer plots – assessing number of wheat stalks, heads in late boot stage, and the
number of emerged heads to develop a count of the number of heads that would be harvested. These same
plots had been originally surveyed in late April – early May to monitor wheat development and update the
USDA’s yield projections on a plot‐by‐plot basis, and will be revisited again on a monthly basis through and
after harvest – to eventually obtain estimates of 2016 wheat harvest losses.
The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 4,500 wheat producers representing all
major U.S. wheat producing areas. Producers were contacted by a combination of mail correspondence,
internet and personal interviews, and were asked about likely wheat yields on their farms in 2016.
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) also released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “old crop” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
The “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2015 and lasted through 5/31/2016, with
“new crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 6/1/2016 and continuing through 5/31/2017.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 2016 planted and harvested acreage for U.S.
wheat and other major and minor crops will be made available by USDA NASS in its’ June 30th 2016 Acreage
report. The findings of the USDA 2016 Acreage report will provide information from surveys of nearly 70,000
U.S. farm operators that were conducted the first two weeks in June 2016, supplemented with historical
planted‐to‐harvested acreage relationships and the historic accuracy of past USDA Acreage report projections.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat JULY & DECEMBER 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.52 ¾ on April 11, 2016, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Kansas
hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.09 ¼ on April 21st. Then after falling to
lows of $4.41 ¼ on May 11th and 12th, JULY 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures traded higher again to
$4.95 ½ on June 8th before moving lower again to a low of $4.77 ½ on June 21st before closing at
$4.78 on that same day (Figure 1).
Page | 4
Similarly, since a low of $4.88 on April 11, 2016, DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas hard red winter
wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.45 on April 21st. Then after falling to a low of $4.83 ½
on May 11th, DECEMBER 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures traded sideways then higher again to
$5.35 ½ on June 8th before moving lower again to to a high of $4.34 ½ on June 21st before closing at
$4.35 on that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. JULY 2016 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
August 1, 2021
Breakout Sessions
Federal insurance options are
becoming more favorable
https://www.ksre.k‐state.edu/news/stories/2021/01/beef‐cattle‐winter‐ranch‐management‐series.html
Cow‐calf insurance options by type of risk
Production
FeedPrice
LRP
PRF
LGM
MPCI
WFRP
Production Risk:
Events such as disease or
weather that can lead to a
decline in production/weight
gain or mortality
Price Risk
Market price might drop,
even to the point of not
covering the cost of
production
Feed Risk
If crop/forage yield decreases,
feed may become expensive
or difficult to purchase
Policies in red are
never …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Federal insurance options are
becoming more favorable
https://www.ksre.k‐state.edu/news/stories/2021/01/beef‐cattle‐winter‐ranch‐management‐series.html
Cow‐calf insurance options by type of risk
Production
FeedPrice
LRP
PRF
LGM
MPCI
WFRP
Production Risk:
Events such as disease or
weather that can lead to a
decline in production/weight
gain or mortality
Price Risk
Market price might drop,
even to the point of not
covering the cost of
production
Feed Risk
If crop/forage yield decreases,
feed may become expensive
or difficult to purchase
Policies in red are
never …
September 1, 2021
Livestock Insurance, 2021 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Federal insurance options are becoming more favorable
https://www.ksre.k‐state.edu/news/stories/2021/01/beef‐cattle‐winter‐ranch‐management‐series.html
Cow‐calf insurance options by type of risk
Production
FeedPrice
LRP
PRF
LGM
MPCI
WFRP
Production Risk:Events such as disease or weather that can lead to a decline in production/weight gain or mortalityPrice RiskMarket price might drop, even to the point of not covering the cost of productionFeed RiskIf crop/forage yield decreases, feed may become expensive or difficult to purchase
Policies in red are never …
June 23, 2021
Use in Government Testimony
operations differs from many other
agricultural sectors. The … thing changes so do several
others. Moreover, the array of … investment interest, and many other dynamic factors. To briefly …
February 24, 2025
Prices and Price Forecasts
reflected in the prices of the
other fertilizer products.
1
Fertilizer … higher corn price (relative to other crops) will shift more acres … a smoothed histogram. The other three factors can be
interpreted …
June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
tion problems in major world wheat
production areas such the Black Sea Region, China, parts of Europe, and elsewhere, b) ongoing geopolitical
conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity markets, and
c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from volatile World economies, and financial
and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation that exists in World and U.S. wheat
markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly in spring‐summer 2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – also is a serious negative
factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply‐
demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion
bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 960 mb million bushels (mb) of food use (down 7 mb), 780
mb of exports (up 5 mb), 140 mb wheat feed use, 1.946 bb of total use (down 2 mb), 978 mb ending stocks (up
2 mb), and 50.24% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 50.09% in April to the highest level since 48.6% in MY
2009/10). The USDA forecast of “old crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. average wheat prices to be $4.90 /bu – the lowest
U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on the May 10th WASDE and the March
31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres (ma) –
down 5.085 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.783 ma would be down 4.310 ma vs 2015.
Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 46.7 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.998 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.106 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16), and projected “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of
2.077 bb (up from 1.946 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16). Given these numbers, the USDA projected “new crop”
MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.029 bb (vs 978 mb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 49.52%
S/U (vs 50.24% last year). U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $3.70 to $4.50
Page | 2
(midpoint = $4.10 /bu) – down from $4.90 /bu in “old crop” MY 2015/16. It is assumed by KSU that these
adjusted USDA projections for “New crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 45% probability of occurring.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand
and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as
USDA, but 1.027 million less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent
harvested‐to‐planted acres relationships. These KSU projections also assume at least a moderation in the high
value of the U.S. dollar, and some improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Trend
Yield) (35% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0
bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.028 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.031 bb total use, 997 mb ending
stocks, 49.09% S/U, & $4.40 /bu U.S. wheat average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems –
Higher U.S. Exports) (10% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma
harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.028 bb total supplies, 1.100 bb exports, 2.272 bb total use,
756 mb ending stocks, 33.27% S/U, & $5.55 /bu U.S. wheat average price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Widespread
2016‐2017 U.S. Crop Problems) (10% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737
ma harvested, 43.0 bu/ac yield, 1.753 bb production, 2.861 bb total supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total
use, 780 mb ending stocks, 37.48% S/U, & $5.30 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. 2015/16
Page | 4
in August, 94.4% ($4.72) on September, 97.4% ($4.87) in October, 87.4% ($4.37 estimate) in November, and a
preliminary estimated low of 87.2% ($4.36) in December 2015.
United States’ wheat prices are moving in an unusual price pattern in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – declining
during the November‐December post‐harvest period rather than following a more normal seasonal sideways‐
to‐upward trend. Weakness in U.S. wheat exports caused by a combination of a) large World wheat supply‐
demand balances, and b) the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies, is the primary
cause of this downward price trend in fall‐early winter 2016.
I‐D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid‐July 2011 through
early December 2015 (Figure 3). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade
weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. After
moving lower for a period of time, the index rose again to an even higher high of 95.21 on December 17, 2015.
The latest recorded value of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 94.62 on Friday, December 18, 2015.
Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM) …
April 30, 2024
Ag Law Issues
restorative costs. In any event, the appellate court held … giver proper notice to any other creditors
under the UCC … the security interest to other creditors. Further, the bankruptcy …