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February 3, 2023
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March 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
begin selling their 2013 crops in storage “en mass”, or some combination of
crop weather‐development factors negatively affect the 2014 U.S. corn crop and/or World geopolitical events
bring volatility to grain markets, there still seems to be limits as to how high U.S. cash corn prices can move.
U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand for “Current” 2013/14: The USDA left unchanged its forecast 2013 U.S. corn
production at a record high 13.925 billion bushels (bb) – up from 10.780 bb in 2012. The forecast of “current”
MY 2013/14 total supplies of 14.781 bb was also unchanged, while forecasts exports of 1.625 bb and total use
of 13.325 bb were both raised 25 mb due to strong export shipments and forward sales to date in the current
marketing year. As a result, “current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks were projected to be 1.456 bb – down 25 mb
from February, and down 336 mb from December 2013, but still up from 821 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
Projected ending stocks‐to‐use of 10.9% for “current” MY 2013/14 has continued to trend lower on a monthly
basis since a projection of 14.7% in the November 2013 WASDE, but is still up sharply from 7.4% for “last
year’s” MY 2012/13 and 7.9% in MY 2011/12. U.S. average corn prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are forecast
to be in the range of $4.25‐$4.75 / bu, down from a record high $6.89 /bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
USDA U.S. Corn Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: Based on projections from the Feb. 21 USDA
Agricultural Outlook Conference, with small adjustments made in the beginning stocks estimate, forecast 2014
U.S. corn production and “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐demand and price scenarios are: 92.0 ma planted,
84.6 ma harvested, 165.3 bu/ac yields, a 13.985 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.380 bb total use, 2.086 bb ending
stocks, 15.6% S/U, & ≈$3.90 average price per bu.
KSU U.S. Corn Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn production and “next
crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐demand and price scenarios are: a) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of
90.0 ma planted, 81.9 ma harvested, 154.4 bu/ac yields, a 12.645 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 12.775 bb total use,
1.366 bb ending stocks, 10.7% S/U, & $4.30‐$5.30 ($4.80 average) /bu; b) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario:
60% prob. of 92.5 ma planted, 84.2 ma harvested, 159.4 bu/ac yields, a 13.421 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.275
bb total use, 1.632 bb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $3.75‐$4.75 ($4.25 average) /bu; and c) KSU “High
Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 95.0 ma planted, 86.5 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yields, a 14.221 bb 2014
U.S. corn crop, 13.650 bb total use, 2.057 bb ending stocks, 15.1% S/U, & $3.40‐$4.40 ($3.90 average) /bu.
World Corn: World corn total supplies of 1,102 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 996 mmt in “last
year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 1,015 mmt in MY 2011/12. Projected World corn ending stocks of 158.5
mmt (16.8% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 134.7 mmt (15.6% S/U) in “last year’s” MY 2012/13,
and up from 132.8 mmt (15.0% S/U) in MY 2011/12. Corn production in major export competitors Brazil and
Argentina is projected to be lower in the coming year in favor of increased soybean production. Conversely,
corn production in China and Ukraine are projected to be sharply higher in the coming year – injecting a
degree of caution on U.S. corn market prospects for both the remainder of “current” MY 2013/14 and for
“next crop” MY 2014/15. …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
t least spring
2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, at least “moderate” continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Exports of U.S. corn are
expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.850 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though South American
corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Also,
preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage and production will be lower due to low prices
and poor profitability in 2017. Combined with emerging weather concerns in Brazil – these factors “could”
have a positive impact on U.S. corn exports and price prospects in spring‐summer 2018.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the October 12th Crop Production report, the USDA adjusted its projection of a) 2017 U.S. corn plantings
at 90.429 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 3.575 ma from 2016), b) harvested acres of 83.119 ma (down 3.629 ma),
c) projected yields of 171.8 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), and d) 2017 U.S. corn production of
14.280 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.625 bb – down 317 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.285 bb – down 362 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.240 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.295 bb (15.67% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.16 /bu from the
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midpoint estimate of $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 75% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields, and production
than projected by the USDA in the October 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “169.5 bu/ac – 14.059 bb” Scenario (20% probability) assumes:
90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 169.5 bu/ac trend yield, 14.059 bb production, 16.404 bb total
supplies, 14.241 bb total use, 2.164 bb ending stocks, 15.19% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.876 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac yield, 13.876 bb production, 16.221 bb total
supplies, 14.196 bb total use, 2.026 bb ending stocks, 14.27% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “169.5 bu/ac – 14.059 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 169.5 bu/ac trend yield, 14.059 bb production, 16.404
bb total supplies, 13.926 bb total use, 2.479 bb ending stocks, 17.80% S/U, & ≈ $3.10 /bu U.S. corn
average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.295 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,038.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.4% from the record of 1,075.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.8% from 972.4 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,265.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from the
record high of 1,289.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,181.8 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.0% from the record
high of 163.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.9% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 201.0 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.0 mmt (22.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.8 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.2 mmt (13.8% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 22% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.4%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. October 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On October 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its October 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October 2017 Crop
Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements and
farmer surveys conducted between September 26th and October 5th to estimate expected U.S. corn yields as of
October 1st. The objective yield surveys for corn were conducted in the major producing states for
approximately 75% of U.S. corn production. Counts were made within sample plots in person by USDA
enumerators, recording number of corn plants and ears, and ear weights in order to calculate the projected
2017 biological yields for each plot. Average percent harvest loss was then subtracted from these biological
yield estimates to obtain a net yield for each plot sampled.
The same corn plots which were sampled for the August and September USDA NASS Crop Production
reports were revisited for the October report. The upcoming November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production
report will also be based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and harvested yield
reports, and actual in‐the‐field yield measurements and conditions for fields remaining to be harvested. A final
USDA NASS Crop Production Summary report with an estimate of 2017 U.S. corn production will be reported
in January 2018.
I‐b. CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17
¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices have declined to lows of $3.44 ¼ on
August 31st, $3.42 ½ on October 12th, and $3.43 on October 23rd ‐ before closing at $3.52 ¾ on October 24th.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to
lows of $3.71 on August 31, 2017, $3.72 ½ on September 12th, $3.73 on October 12th, and $3.73 ¼ on October
23rd ‐ before closing at $3.82 ½ on October 24th.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Wednesday, October 25th in mid‐morning trading was $0.29 ½ per bushel (i.e., $3.83 ¼ for JULY 2018 Corn less
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$3.53 ¾ for DEC 2017 Corn), or $0.0421 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to
commercial grain storage charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per
month – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of October 24, 2017)
ne …
August 15, 2016
Breakout session presentations
Probable net recovery on collateral in event of liquidation?(Will proceeds pay off loan, other loans too?)• … 100,000 leaving them $0 basis. He will also be required to use up his NOL of $15,000 to offset the remaining discharged debt of $20,000. The remaining $3,000 of debt discharged that made Henry solvent would not be recognized as debt discharged income because he uses the qualified farmer exception.
Transactions that Create Tax Challenges:Tax Consequences on the Repossession of Real Property:
On repossession, the amount of gain recognized is the lesser of:
1) The amount of cash and the fair market value (FMV) of other property received prior to the reacquisition (but only to the extent such money and other property exceeds the amount of gain reported prior to reacquisition).
2) The amount of gain realized on the sale (adjusted sales price less adjusted income tax basis) in excess of the gain previously recognized before the reacquisition and the money or other property transferred by the seller in connection with the reacquisition.
OR
Transactions that Create Tax Challenges:Tax Consequences on the Repossession of Real Property:
Farmland acquired in 1970 was sold by Fred under installment contract on January 2, 2015 to Jim for $150,000 calling for $15,000 down and payments of $15,000 per year for nine years. The land had an adjusted income tax basis at the time of sale of $30,000. The seller received the down payment and the first regular payment for the following year, with all payments income tax reported, where upon Jim proceeded to forfeit his interest in the property back to Fred.
Transactions that Create Tax Challenges:
Tax Consequences on the Repossession of Real Property:
Step 1 …
July 1, 2010
Animal ID & Traceability
effectively to animal dis-
ease events in the USA (USDA-APHIS, 2008a … follows. First, a review of previous
research is presented to … implica-
tions and conclusions.
1. Previous Research
The NAIS was initiated …
April 15, 2021
Land Buying and Valuing
Secretary/Treasurer
Vacant – Education/Events Coordinator
Kellie Nesmith … up $81 per acre from the previous year. Irrigated cropland …
May 1, 2000
Section 4: Starting Your Business
Alliance, Manhattan, Kansas
Previously, Extension Assistant, Department … by an incorporator in
the event the board of directors shall …
April 22, 2022
Livestock Insurance
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk-and-profit-conference/previous-conference-
proceedings/2018-risk-and-profit-conference/11 … to the
examples in the previous paragraph, prices for feeders … indemnity calculation, see the previous article in this series at …
July 1, 1996
Section 2: Considering Cooperatives
refers to the unforeseen events that can change the projected … costs and efficiencies. These events can influence both product … using the formula listed
previously or obtained from a table …
February 1, 2013
Beef Cattle
labor. However, as stated previously, the
cow herd lease arrangement … reimburse the lessor in the event of any seizure
and sale …