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January 27, 2025
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Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota … Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota … Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota …
May 20, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
with their marketing and riskmanagement decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … options, forward
contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial …
August 21, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
APH). This provided
real risk protection for above average … contract to include
price risk as a peril. The MVP replacement … to maintain pre-harvest
hedges.
MVP bi d i h d 5 …
November 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s November 9th projection, three potential
KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Table 1a
& Figure 11b).
KSU Scenario 1) “MODERATELY Higher Exports” Scenario (10% probability): This scenario assumes that there
will be 1.884 bb production, 3.123 bb total supplies, 1.075 bb exports (up 50 mb vs USDA), 120 mb feed &
residual use, 2.224 bb total use (up 50 mb vs USDA), 899 mb ending stocks (down 50 mb vs USDA), 40.42%
Stocks/Use (down vs 43.65% S/U by USDA), & $5.35 /bu U.S. wheat average price (up $0.25 /bu vs USDA).
KSU Scenario 2) “MUCH Higher Exports” Scenario (5% probability): This scenario assumes that there will be
1.884 bb production, 3.123 bb total supplies, 1.200 bb exports (up 125 mb vs USDA), 120 mb feed & residual
use, 2.299 bb total use (up 125 mb vs USDA), 824 mb ending stocks (down 125 mb vs USDA), 35.84% Stocks/Use
(down vs 43.65% S/U by USDA), & $5.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price (up $0.80 /bu vs USDA).
Page | 7
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Exports” Scenario (15% probability): This scenario assumes that there will be 1.884
bb production, 3.123 bb total supplies, 925 bb exports (down 100 mb vs USDA), 120 mb feed & residual use,
2.074 bb total use (down 100 mb vs USDA), 1,049 mb ending stocks (up 100 mb vs USDA), 50.58% Stocks/Use
(up vs 43.65% S/U by USDA), & $4.80 /bu U.S. wheat average price (down $0.30 /bu vs USDA).
H. CFTC Position of Traders Info for CME KS HRW Wheat Futures through 11/13/2018
Figures 3a‐c present the latest available Position of Traders data through November 13, 2018 on CME
Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat futures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Figure 3a shows Net Position of Traders for CME KS HRW Wheat with Futures Prices from June 2006
through November 13, 2018. This chart shows the positions of Commercial Hedgers, Managed Money
(Specs), and Swaps …
2021 Mini-Risk and Profit Conference Presentations
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … Can We Compare Sales Price RiskManagement Alternatives?
A: use AgMana … AgManager.info
KSU‐Feeder Cattle Risk …
June 8, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
with their marketing and riskmanagement decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … options, forward contracts, and
hedge-to-arrive can be substantial …
March 5, 2015
Risk Management Strategies
with their marketing and riskmanagement decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … options, forward
contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial …
October 1, 2024
2024 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
• (More) overlap with hedging
Refresher-Supplemental Coverage … available if ARC
(Agricultural Risk Coverage) is
used for the … price decline
ECO and hedging
• Price declines alone …
August 1, 2019
General Sessions
for 2019 - 2020
2019 KSU Risk & Profit Conference
Manhattan … planting Fall freeze risk on late crops
o Hot / Dry … August 13, 2018
Commercial Hedge Positions in CME CornCFTC …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
2017 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout … analysis,
bioenergy impacts and riskmanagement strategies, b) grain industry … activities
in finance and farm management with a focus on firm repayment …