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August 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s July 12th projection, three potential KSU‐
Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Table 1a).
KSU Scenario 1) “MODERATELY Higher Exports” Scenario (15% probability): This scenario assumes that there
will be 1.877 bb production, 3.112 bb total supplies (both same as USDA), 1.075 bb exports (up 50 mb from
USDA), 120 mb feed & residual use, 2.227 bb total use (up 50 mb from USDA), 885 mb ending stocks (down 50
mb from USDA), 39.7% Stocks/Use (down from 42.95% S/U by USDA), & $5.35 /bu U.S. wheat average price (up
$0.25 /bu from USDA).
KSU Scenario 2) “MUCH Higher Exports” Scenario (10% probability): This scenario assumes that there will be
1.877 bb production, 3.112 bb total supplies (both same as USDA), 1.200 bb exports (up 125 mb from USDA),
120 mb feed & residual use, 2.352 bb total use (up 125 mb from USDA), 760 mb ending stocks (down 200 mb
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from USDA), 32.3% Stocks/Use (down from 42.95% S/U by USDA), & $5.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price (up
$0.80 /bu from USDA).
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Exports” Scenario (15% probability): This scenario assumes that there will be 1.877
bb production, 3.112 bb total supplies (both same as USDA), 925 mb exports (down 100 mb from USDA), 120 mb
feed & residual use, 2.077 bb total use (down 100 mb from USDA), 1.035 bb ending stocks (up 100 mb from
USDA), 49.8% Stocks/Use (up from 42.95% S/U by USDA), & $4.80 /bu U.S. wheat average price (down $0.30 /bu
from USDA).
H. CFTC Position of Traders Info for CME KS HRW Wheat Futures through 8/21/2018
Figures 3a‐c present the latest available Position of Traders data through August 21, 2018 on CME Kansas
Hard Red Winter Wheat futures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Figure 3a shows Net Position of Traders for CME KS HRW Wheat with Futures Prices from June 2006
through August 21, 2018. This chart shows the positions of Commercial Hedgers, Managed Money (Specs),
and Swaps …
January 1, 2002
Basis
1
Managing for
Today’s Cattle Market … example, hedgers typically view hedging as ariskmanagement method since they want to …
October 21, 2020
Livestock Insurance, Crop Insurance Papers, 2020 K-State Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
in the Charles. H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University.
I’m developing a KS‐focused research, extension, and teaching program in agricultural policy. I previously led crop insurance extension activities for NY state and have conducted research on crop insurance and credit access, conservation practices, and marketing contracts.
Outline
• …
March 20, 2015
Commodity Program Papers
with their
marketing and riskmanagement decisions. Therisk of loss in
trading futures … options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can
be substantial …
May 29, 2024
Recent Videos
Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota … Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota … Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota …
Breakout Sessions
2013 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout … in food and
agribusiness management and in commodity futures … shorter tenor alternative for hedging corn
and soybeans. Short-dated …
August 18, 2014
Risk Management Strategies
with their marketing
and riskmanagement decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … options,
forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial …
August 26, 2024
Recent Videos
Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota … Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota … Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota …
February 24, 2022
Recent Videos
tudent
February 23, 2022
Many types of risk
Production Risk:
Events such as disease o … roduction/weight
gain or mortality
Feed Risk
If crop/forage yield
decr … ive or difficult to
purchase
Price Risk
Market price might drop,
even to the point of not
covering the cost of
production
“The Federal Crop
Insurance Program”
Private‐public partnershipPrivate‐public partnership
Well‐established for row cropsWell‐established for row crops
Some insurance products
available for livestock producers
Some insurance products
available for livestock producers
Why formally insure?
• …
May 31, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
with their marketing and riskmanagement decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … options, forward contracts, and
hedge-to-arrive can be substantial …