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February 1, 2001
Land Buying and Valuing
factors, such
as wars and economic depressions, cannot be controlled … and
external factors (national economic events, farm policy, tax … Department of
Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Experiment …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, 1603 Old …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, 1603 Old …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.agecon.ksu.edu . www.agmanager.info … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, Kansas …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, 1603 Old …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.agecon.ksu.edu . www.agmanager.info … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, Kansas …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.agecon.ksu.edu . www.agmanager.info … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, Kansas …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.agecon.ksu.edu . www.agmanager.info … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, Kansas …
Summary Book - All Counties
Department of Agricultural Economics
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu … Department of
Agricultural Economics, 308 Waters Hall, 1603 Old …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trends in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, and then trended sideways from November through January, with
moderate seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
October 29, 2015 – December 28, 2016
Close = $4.32 on 12/28/2016
MARCH 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
October 29, 2015 – December 28, 2016
Close = $4.09 ½ on 12/28/2016
Page | 5
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
irregularly from October through January 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during February, followed
by a sideways trend in April‐May (Figure 2). “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016
and will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this projected price pattern becomes reality, it would signal the
likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat over the October 2016 harvest through January 2017 period.
These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast
model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “New Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
…