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October 1, 2024
2024 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
13 companies have Standard Reinsurance Agreements & 10 have Livestock Price Reinsurance Agreements with RMA.
The companies provide agents that sell the crop insurance to producers.
The companies manage loss adjusters and pay all claims.
What is the Risk Management Agency(RMA)?
?
10 RMA Regional Offices …
October 7, 2011
2011
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
08/16/11Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … 10
675
233
200
265
694
30865
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … 30 29
Labor allocated to livestock, % 36.9 47.3 32.0 31.5
Number …
May 22, 2020
Farm Profitability, KFMA Research
contribution to income from livestock production are expected to … income expectations for the livestock sector in Kansas. Methods … baseline. Tonsor, in his 2020 livestock analysis, provides an estimate …
August 28, 2015
Financial Management
This study examines the effectiveness of a relatively new whole‐farm revenue insurance product,
Adjusted Gross Revenue‐Lite (AGR‐Lite), on net farm income risk for 49 southeast Kansas beef farms using farm‐
level data. AGR‐Lite is whole‐farm revenue insurance, which provides protection against low revenue resulting
from natural disasters causing production losses and commodity market fluctuations that affect revenue. AGR‐
Lite may be used as a stand‐alone product or as an umbrella (wraparound) policy allowing producers to use …
August 28, 2015
KFMA Research
This study examines the effectiveness of a relatively new whole‐farm revenue insurance product,
Adjusted Gross Revenue‐Lite (AGR‐Lite), on net farm income risk for 49 southeast Kansas beef farms using farm‐
level data. AGR‐Lite is whole‐farm revenue insurance, which provides protection against low revenue resulting
from natural disasters causing production losses and commodity market fluctuations that affect revenue. AGR‐
Lite may be used as a stand‐alone product or as an umbrella (wraparound) policy allowing producers to use …
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Corn Market Considerations for Winter‐Spring 2018
First, although the corn market is likely to be responsive to any early season 2018 U.S. corn production
threats, the anticipation of large beginning stocks of 2.000‐2.100 bb for “new crop” MY 2018/19 will likely
“mitigate” of “soften” the immediate price response of the market – more‐so than if beginning stocks were
down to 1.250‐1.500 bb. If no significant production risk emerges in summer 2018, then these large “old crop”
MY 2017/18 carryover ending stocks will limit 2018 corn crop forward pricing prospects.
Second, low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling
production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, the USDA has so far projecting at least “moderate” continued strength in U.S. corn exports of 1.900
bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 – with this number likely increasing IF South American corn production
prospects continue to suffer. United States’ corn export shipments had been “slow” to date in the current
marketing year, but have increased markedly in recent weeks. The USDA maintains its optimism for “new
crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. corn exports because of a) low U.S. corn prices to date, b) expectations of significantly
tighter foreign stocks and percent (%) stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing
South American corn exports in spring 2018.
Current forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 94.5 million metric tons (mmt) in this
marketing year – versus 98.5 mmt last year ‐ with harvests lasting from February through May. However,
forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production to be 36.0 mmt in this marketing year – versus 41.0 mmt a
year ago ‐ with harvests lasting from March through May. The Argentina production figure is at risk to falling
further. To the degree that 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil is limited by crop weather
issues, there will likely be subsequent support U.S. corn export prospects.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecasts
In the March 8th WASDE report, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) 2017 U.S. corn production of
14.604 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016, and b) “old crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of
16.947 bb – up marginally from a year earlier. Total use is forecast at 14.820 bb – raised 225 mb from the
February WASDE on prospects for a) higher ethanol use of 5.575 bb (raised 50 mb), and b) higher exports of
2.225 bb (raised 175 mb). Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.127 bb (14.35% Stocks/Use) – down 225 mb
from February, and down from 2.293 bb (15.65% S/U) in MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected
to average $3.35 /bu (range of $3.15‐$3.55). This is down $0.01 /bu from $3.36 /bu from MY 2016/17.
At the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23, 2018, the USDA forecast that a)
2018 U.S. corn production would be 14.390 bb – based on 90.0 million acres (ma) planted, 82.7 ma harvested,
and a yield of 174.0 bu. Total use is forecast at 14.520 bb – with projections of ethanol use at 5.650 bb (a
record high), non‐ethanol food seed and industrial use at 1.495 bb (also a record high), exports of 1.900 bb
(down 325 mb from the current marketing year), and feed and residual use of 5.475 mb (down 75 mb from this
year). After a KSU‐adjustment for lower beginning stocks based on the March 8th WASDE report, ending stocks
are projected to be a 2.047 bb (14.10% Stocks/Use) – with both being down moderately from “old crop” MY
2017/18 levels. United States’ corn prices are projected to average a KSU‐adjusted $3.45 /bu (up $0.05‐$0.10
Page | 3
from this year). It is probable that the export projection for “new crop” MY 2018/19 may be raised in coming
months due to South American production problems – causing these ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use
estimates to tighten further. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2018/19. These projections are to show how varying 2018 U.S. corn production outcomes could affect U.S.
corn supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
A ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 176.6 bu/ac record yield (equal to
2017 record high), 14.605 bb production, 16.782 bb total supplies, 14.600 bb total use, 2.182 bb ending
stocks, 14.95% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yield (equal to 2009
yield), 13.596 bb production, 15.773 bb total supplies, 14.315 bb total use, 1.458 bb ending stocks, 10.19%
S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price;
6. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,041.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.1% from the record of 1,075.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 973.45 mmt in MY 2015/16. World
corn total supplies of 1,273.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are forecast to be down moderately from the
record high 1,290.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 155.9 mmt are projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down 2.4% from the record
high of 159.8 mmt in MY 2016/17, and up 30.2% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World corn ending
stocks of 199.2 mmt (18.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 231.9 mmt (21.9%
S/U) in MY 2016/17, and from 215.0 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn
ending stocks of 145.1 mmt (17.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from 173.6 mmt (21.9% S/U) in
MY 2016/17, and from 170.9 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.6 mmt
(14.35% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down from 131.1 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2016/17, but up from 104.2
mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct
influence are projected to be approximately 22% lower (i.e., 14.35% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China” versus
18.5% S/U for the “World” overall in “old crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 43.4% in MY 2016/17, and down to 39.9% in “old
crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to reduce
feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions
may eventual increase Chinese import demand for U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
November 6, 2013
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-30
10/31/13Livestock Marketing Information Center … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-31
10/31/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-32
10/31/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data …
October 6, 2017
2017 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Intended for grazing by livestock OR haying• Acreage must be suitable … Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
PRF Insurance: time periods
• Policy runs January to December
• … RMA info on PRFwww.rma.usda.gov/policies/pasturerangeforage/
• Grid locator, Decision Support Toolhttps://prodwebnlb.rma.usda.gov/apps/prf
Intended Use:‐ …
October 6, 2017
2017 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Intended for grazing by livestock OR haying• Acreage must be suitable … Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
PRF Insurance: time periods
• Policy runs January to December
• … RMA info on PRFwww.rma.usda.gov/policies/pasturerangeforage/
• Grid locator, Decision Support Toolhttps://prodwebnlb.rma.usda.gov/apps/prf
Intended Use:‐ …
May 1, 2008
KFMA Newsletters
combination of crops
and livestock, especially dairies. The … from farm management and policy research to
water conservation … 47,912 36,777
Cash Crop – Livestock 31 76,332 34,629 85,253 …