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June 22, 2010
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
Projections of grain and livestock supply, use and agricultural … United States corn and
livestock supply-use projections were … DDGS substitutes for corn in livestock feed rations on a pound …
Breakout Sessions
management and agricultural policy. In addition to
continued … the backbone of U.S. farm policy. This 2-part session will … Disaster Assistance
Livestock Indemnity Payments (LIP …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
areas of the animal health, livestock marketing,
and industrial … the areas animal health and livestock
production economics. He … surrounding animal health and livestock and
meat marketing. He has …
August 3, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
payments are cut
under a RP-HPE policy. The worst outcome is a … more than half of the 2012 policy data has been published … Economists, USDA and other policy makers have
defined “expected …
June 10, 2020
Recent Videos
beef industry participants hinges critically upon consumer demand
All $ that flow into beef industry originate from consumers
We must make policy, production, & marketing decisions appreciating this bold fact!
Demand defined:“quantities consumers will buy at various prices”
Price
Quantity
Demand
Supply
Price
Quantity
Demand defined:“quantities consumers will buy at various prices”
Price
Quantity
Demand
Supply
Price
Quantity
Demand decline:Producers lose moneyIndustry eventually shrinks
Demand defined:“quantities consumers will buy at various prices”
Price
Quantity
Demand
Supply
Price
Quantity
Demand Increase:Producers make moneyIndustry eventually grows
Agricultural …
January 1, 2013
Animal Well-Being
reduce consumer trust in livestock production and often result … the survey process, company policy prohibiting … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/AnimalWelfare/BeefWelfareAssessment.pdf …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
corn
planting difficulties, 2) summer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong
U.S. corn use for ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding.
Then when t … DA loan rate levels.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risk. The corn market has
been less responsive to any 2017 U.S. corn production threats since beginning stocks for “new crop” MY
2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.335 bb rather than down to 1.000 bb.
Second, it is anticipated that low prices for U.S. corn will continue to help maintain strong usage for
domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Exports of U.S. corn are
expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.850 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though South American
corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Also,
preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage will be lower due to low prices and poor
profitability in 2017 – which may have a positive effect on U.S. corn exports and price prospects later in 2018.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
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5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ummer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong
U.S. corn use for ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding.
DEC 2017 corn … …
December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ol demand for corn in Kansas and nationwide.
Page | 2
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Winter‐Spring 2018
First, the corn market is likely to be only moderately responsive to any early season 2018 U.S. corn
production threats since beginning stocks for “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.295
bb rather than down to 1.250‐1.500 bb. If no significant production risk emerges in summer 2018, then these
large “old crop” MY 2017/18 carryover supplies will continue to limit 2018 corn crop forward pricing prospects.
Second, low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling
production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, the USDA is projecting at least “moderate” continued strength in U.S. corn exports of 1.925 bb for
“new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn export shipments have been “slow” to date in the current
marketing year. However, the USDA maintains its optimism for “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. corn exports
because of a) low U.S. corn prices, b) expectations of significantly tighter foreign stocks and percent (%)
stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing South American corn exports in early 2018.
Early forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 95 million metric tons (mmt) in this marketing
year with harvests lasting from February through May. Early forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production
to be 42 mmt in this marketing year with harvests lasting from March through May. However, dry conditions
may limit 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil – and subsequently support U.S. corn exports.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the December 12th Crop Production reports, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) projected
yields up to a record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn
production up to 14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016. The also USDA left unchanged
its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20 mb) from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.485 bb – raised 50 mb from November on higher ethanol use, but still
down 162 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.437 bb (16.8% S/U) – up from
2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu
(range of $2.85‐$3.55). This is down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is
given an 80% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These projections are to show how varying corn export outcomes could affect the USDA’s projection
in the December 9, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.785 bb total use, 2.099 bb ending stocks, 14.20% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
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B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 1.800 bb exports, 14.360 bb total use, 2.524 bb ending stocks, 17.58% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
6. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2018/19
In the November 28th Long Term Baseline projections, the USDA forecast for “next crop” MY 2018/19 that
2018 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres would equal 91.0 million acres (ma) and 83.7 ma, respectively,
both up from 90.429 ma planted and 83.119 ma harvested in 2017. Corn yields in 2018 are forecast at 173.5
bu/ac, down from the record high of 175.4 bu/ac in 2017. U.S. corn production is 2018 is projected to be
14.520 bb – down from 14.578 bb now projected for 2017.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 17.007 bb – adjusted for changes in the
December WASDE report in MY 2017/18 ending stocks. Total use is forecast at 14.450 bb – down 35 mb from
this current marketing year. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.557 bb (17.7% S/U) – up from 2.437 bb
(16.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu – up
from $3.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,044.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
2.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 973.5 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,272.1 mmt are down marginally from the record high 1,290.5 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.6% from the record
high of 164.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 204.1 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.3
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected
Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 142.2 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from
169.0 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 170.8 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 124.5 mmt
(15.0% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.6 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 104.1 mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.0% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 44.3% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.0%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
February 27, 2023
Economics
Outline
1. Grain Situation
2. Livestock Situation
3. Overview of … spends 95% of his time in meat-livestock space
2. See Dan O’Brien … key
Agricultural Economics
Meat-Livestock Markets
Agricultural Economics
DR …