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May 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… down to USDA loan rate levels.
Other factors that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following: First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early‐spring and some into summer 2017. Second,
anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock
feeding through spring‐ …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ue to spring corn planting and summer
corn production uncertainties, and strong U.S. corn use in terms of ethanol production, wet corn milling,
exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding. Although the USDA forecast in the June 30th Acreage
report of 90.886 million acres (ma) of U.S. corn plantings in 2017 was above trade expectations, this projection
is still down from 94.004 ma planted in 2016. The USDA used a crop modeling approach to forecast 2017 U.S.
corn yields to be 170.7 bu/acre in the July WASDE report.
However, in the upcoming survey‐based August 10th Crop Production report, it is possible that various
production problems resulting from dry conditions in the U.S. northern plains and late plantings elsewhere in
the U.S. Corn Belt may result in U.S. corn yield projections closer to long term trend estimates of 165‐168
bu/acre. If this occurs, then 2017 U.S. corn production estimates could be in the range of 13.6 to 13.8 billion
bushels (bb) in the August 10th USDA reports instead of the USDA projection of 14.255 bb in the July WASDE.
So far, any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies in Spring 2017 have been limited by
expectations that ending stocks of U.S. corn will stay above 2.0 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18, coupled with
ending stocks‐to‐use above 15.0%‐16.0% in both “current” MY 2016/17 and “next crop” MY 2017/18.
Drought conditions in the northern plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana as well as parts
of Nebraska and Iowa may have a negative impact on 2017 U.S. corn production. Also, corn production in
2017 may be negatively affected by carryover impacts from delayed plantings in the central Corn Belt earlier in
Spring 2017, and periods of high temperatures that may have affected corn pollination in the first half of July.
Kansas Cash Corn Prices & Basis Bids
Cash corn bids at major grain elevators ranged from $3.36 ($0.40 under SEPT futures) to $3.76 ($0.00 under or
par with futures) in Western Kansas and $3.21 ¼ ($0.55 under) to $3.41 ¼ ($0.35 under) in Central Kansas on
Friday, July 14th. This represents a marked increase since October‐December 2016 when corn price bids
statewide had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66‐$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as
marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel. Cash corn price bids in east
central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were near $3.44 ‐ $3.46 on July 14th, up from the
range of $3.26‐$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016. Cash corn bids at Kansas ethanol plants on July 17th ranged
from $3.52 ¼ ($0.24 under) to $4.18 ¼ ($0.42 over) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for
corn in Kansas and nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still
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May 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… s that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following: First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017. Second, anticipation of
continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at least until
what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global markets
during Summer 2017. And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or
financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World
geo‐political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with
the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate depending on which
countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
Page | 2
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18. With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma). Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down
4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a
2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from “current” MY 2016/17 – but within the range of $3.25‐$3.55 /bu for this marketing year. This scenario is
given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.926 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.741 bb ending stocks, 12.27% S/U, & $3.85 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.740 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.660 bb ending stocks, 11.21% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.155 bb production, 14.525 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.065 bb ending stocks, 7.91% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,053.8 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 9.4% from 963.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 3.7% from 1,016.0 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,265.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,173.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 154.4 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 28.7% from 120.0 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 8.6% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
223.0 mmt (21.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 211.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 223.0 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.4%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). An ongoing, strong
demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any
serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.
Page | 3
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
April 11th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On April 11th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “current crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for corn.
The “current” MY 2016/17 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2016 and will last through August 31, 2017.
On March 31st, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) released
it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) reports. These USDA reports were preceded by
the USDA 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23‐24, 2017
(https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/). At this forum the USDA provided an initial set of supply‐demand and price
forecasts for U.S. corn and other crops for the upcoming 2017/18 marketing year. “Next crop” MY 2016/17 for
U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
Following its normal procedures, the next supply‐demand and price forecasts for “next crop” 2017/18
from the USDA will be released in the May 10, 2017 USDA WASDE report.
CME MAY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Trends
MAY 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.32 1/2 on August 31, 2016, MAY 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended up to a high of $3.75 ¾ on October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, MAY 2017
corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.49 ¼ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of
$3.87 ¼ on February 16, 2017. Since then, MARCH 2017 corn futures first trended lower to $3.67 ¼ on
February 27th, and then to a high of $3.86 ¼ on February 28th before closing at $3.82 on March 1, 2017
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to MARCH 2017 Corn futures, following a low of $3.58 1/2 on August 31, 2016,
DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices trended up to a high of $3.95 ½ on
October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of
$3.74 ¼ on November 15th and $3.74 ½ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of $4.03 ¾ on
February 16, 2017. Since then, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures first trended lower to $3.88 on February 27th,
and then to a high of $4.04 on February 28th before closing at $4.01 ¼ on March 1, 2017.
CME Corn Futures 2017 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 corn futures on
Wednesday, March 1st was $0.16 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $3.89 ¼ for JULY 2017 Corn less $3.75 ¾ for MARCH 2017
Corn), or $0.0419 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for interest or additional
handling costs or other discounts. The MARCH 2017 Corn futures contract was entering the early stages of its
Page | 4
contract delivery period at that time, with grain elevators “rolling” to the MAY 2017 Corn futures contract for
local basis determination purposes. The spread from the MAY 2017 to JULY 2017 Corn futures contracts was
$0.07 ¼ ($3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.82) or $0.03625 per month.
Figure 1. MAY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of May 2, 2017)
ne …