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County Summary
2004 Kansas Farm Management Associations
Annual … 23 FARMS
ITEM … PER FARM
1 BEEF …
County Summary
2004 Kansas Farm Management Associations
Annual … 48 FARMS
ITEM … PER FARM
1 BEEF …
September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
September 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On September 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY) for corn. The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. soybeans began on September 1, 2017 and will last
through August 31, 2018. Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
(https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and
Grain Stocks (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested
acreage estimates from the June 30th Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop both the August 10th
and September 12th projections of 2017 U.S. soybean production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports.
The USDA used at combination of in field objective yield measurements and farmers surveys conducted
between August 25th and September 6th for the September 12, 2017 NASS Crop Production report. The
objective yield surveys for soybeans were conducted in the major producing states for approximately 75% of
U.S. soybean production. Counts were made within sample plots in person by USDA enumerators, recording
number of soybean pods per 18 square feet, and pod weights (i.e., grams per pod) in order to calculate the
projected 2017 biological yields for each plot. Average percent harvest loss was then subtracted from these
biological yield estimates to obtain a net yield for each plot sampled.
These same soybean plots which were sampled for the August and September USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will revisited each month through crop maturity – with the soybeans produced from each
of these plots being sampled and weighed. The upcoming October 12th and November 9th USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will also be based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and actual
in‐the‐field yield measurements and conditions – with a final 2017 USDA NASS Crop Production Summary to
be reported in January 2018.
CME NOVEMBER 2017 & JULY 2017 Soybean Futures Trends
NOVEMBER 2017 CME Soybean Futures
Following a low of $9.03 ½ on August 2, 2016, NOVEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
soybean futures prices trended up to a high of $10.43 on November 28, 2016 (Figure 1). From December 2016
through March 2017, NOV 2016 soybean futures prices traded within a range of lowS of $9.80 ¾ on December
23 & 27, 2016 and $9.81 ¼ on January 6‐7, 2017 to highs of $10.34 ½ on February 15‐16 and $10.33 ½ on
February 28, 2017. From April 2017 forward, NOV 2017 soybean futures declined to a low of $9.07 on June
23rd, before rallying to a high of $10.47 on July 11th.
From that high, NOV 2017 soybeans fell to a low of $9.21 on August 16th before rallying to highs of $9.77 ½
on September 7th and $9.78 ¼ on September 14th. After more volatile market ups and downs, NOV 2017
soybean futures closed at $9.70 on Wednesday, September 20th. The close of $9.70 for NOVEMBER 2017 CME
Soybean futures on September 20th was down 7.35% from the July 11th (early summer 2017) price high of
$10.47 per bushel.
Page | 4
Figure 1. NOVEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Soybean Futures Price Charts
ne …
Family Living
6,528
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-6,905 -1,216 -3,973 … 3,973 -3,447
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-22,294 -15,431 … 15,431 -10,669 -14,670
Non-Farm Income (1)
$24,244 $38,507 …
Family Living
16,867
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-14,684 -1,326 -24,412 … 24,412 -13,956
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-19,210 -6,710 -8,458 … 6,710 -8,458 -8,267
Non-Farm Income (1)
$17,650 $54,407 …
Family Living
Kansas Farm Management Associations
2009 … 2,418 1,925
NON-FARM INCOME … 48,591 $44,474
NET …
Family Living
14,474
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-2,928 -1,919 -2,805
Deductible … 1,919 -2,805
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-15,510 -31,631 … Expense
-15,510 -31,631 -21,699
Non-Farm Income (1)
$8,978 $44,381 …
Family Living
19,597
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-5,844 -8,234 -942 … 942 -3,768
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-4,406 -2,989 -10,543 … 2,989 -10,543 -7,051
Non-Farm Income (1)
$22,155 $52,204 …
Family Living
16,164
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-751 -6,625 -2,574 … 2,574 -3,302
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-1,774 -4,772 -8,905 … 4,772 -8,905 -6,873
Non-Farm Income (1)
$33,622 $36,053 …
Family Living
19,299
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-1,299 -2,400 -1,508 … 1,508 -1,772
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-236 -8,364 -6,114 … 8,364 -6,114 -6,317
Non-Farm Income (1)
$30,803 $29,138 …