Search
Displaying 3311 - 3320 of 5631
Farm Type
70
6 OTHER LIVESTOCK … 20,698
9 LIVESTOCK INCOME … 2,522
34 LIVESTOCK MARKETING-BREEDING …
February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
Page | 10
of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other
market events should occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such market uncertainties are being treated as non‐factors
in current World wheat export and futures markets.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through December 10th – the 29th week of the “current crop”
2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 481.8 mb, which is 62.17% of the USDA’s projected
“new crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 775 mb, with 71.15% (37 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United
States’ wheat export shipments will need to average 19.6 mb per week through the remainder of the “current
crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s February 9th WASDE projection of 775 mb. Total wheat
export shipments by the United States of 8.5 mb and 13.8 mb during the weeks ending January 28th and
February 4th, respectively, are behind the pace (19.6 mb / week) to meet even the recently reduced USDA
forecast of 775 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 144.3 mb in U.S. wheat for “current
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of February 4th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 626.1 mb (i.e., 481.8 mb shipped plus 144.3 mb forward sales). This
amounts to 80.8% of the USDA’s projection of 775 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 71.15% of the
marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 37 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on
potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 775 mb target set by
the USDA in the February 9th WASDE report.
Feed & Residual Use: In December 2015 the USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual Use for “next
crop” MY 2016/17 to be 225 mb, whereas in the February 9th WASDE report, the USDA projected that U.S. feed
and residual use would be 150 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up from 122 mb for MY 2014/15, down from
228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Projections by KSU of “next crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. wheat feed use are 150 mb, down from the USDA’s
projection of 225 mb (Table 1).
Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 from the previous year, and has
remained lower in “current crop” MY 2015/16 due to the availability in domestic markets of sizable 2013,
2014, and 2015 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and supplies. This situation has led to large competitive
U.S. feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
February 18, 2013
Risk Management Strategies
Agricultural Disaster Assistance,
Livestock & Crops (SURE)
1.1% 1.516 … Total for Farmer Programs
Livestock & Crops (SURE)
RMA administration …
May 14, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th
$8.24 ½ Close
May 12th
Page | 3
Futures trended generally higher since the low, moving as high as $8.55 ½ on May 6th prior to the lower closes
following the May 9th USDA reports.
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 55.815 million acres (ma), down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and
55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, the USDA projected
2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 47.2 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013, down from 48.921 ma in 2012,
and up from 45.705 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 82.2%,
up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012 and 84.0% in 2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐
planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 42.7 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down from the record high
of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1
and Figure 3). The USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 1.963 billion bushels (bb) – which is
down from 2.130 bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in 2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
In its May 9th USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be
42.007 million acres (ma). These acres of winter wheat were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of
harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection of 42.007 ma planted in the U.S. in 2014 is down from
43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). Winter wheat
harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be 32.572 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat
percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 77.5%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013
of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%. IF
extreme drought conditions continue in the U.S. Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and
Nebraska in coming weeks and months – the five states of which make up the primary U.S. hard red winter
wheat production area – then the proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acres in 2014 could decline even further,
possibly even below the 75.2% level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 43.1 bu/ac, down from the record high of 47.4
bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to be 1.403 bb, down from 1.534 bb in
2013. Of the 2014 total of 1.963 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast to be 746 million
bushels (mb), up marginally from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter wheat production is forecast to
be 447 million bushels (mb), down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower planted acreage in 2014.
White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be 209 mb, down 7% from 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield and Production for 2014
The USDA projection of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage is equal to the March 31st USDA
Prospective Plantings report forecast of 12.009 ma. Similarly, 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage is
forecast to be 1.799 ma. The USDA’s estimate of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 12.009 ma is
Page | 4
down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011. The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat
planted acreage to 1.799 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011.
Based on its internal projections that have not been formally released to the public, the USDA World
Agricultural Outlook Board has calculated 2014 U.S. other spring wheat and durum harvested acres using 10‐
year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state off of its state‐level planted acreage projections. Similarly, spring
wheat and durum wheat yields were estimated using 1985‐2013 yield trends by state (except for durum wheat
in Arizona, California, and Idaho). The combined 2014 production forecast for U.S. spring and durum wheat
together is approximately 560.5 mb, down from 595.4 mb (533.5 mb of other spring wheat, and 61.9 mb or
durum wheat) in 2013.
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
The USDA projected that total supplies of U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be 2.706 bb – the
lowest amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. Projected total
supplies of 2.706 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY
2007/08, 2.932 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12,
3.131 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.023 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14.
Total supplies of 2.706 bb resulted from beginning stocks of 583 mb, projected 2014 production of 1.963
bb, and projected imports of 160 mb (Table 1).
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 583 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be down 18.8% from
718 mb beginning stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14. This would be the
lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the tight ending stocks
situation that developed in MY 2007/08. This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the “new
crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat supplies that
has occurred over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in MY
2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 160 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. The next highest amounts since MY
1973/74 have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119
mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or
1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has had and likely will continue to have an impact on U.S. wheat
imports until the 2014 U.S. wheat harvest period. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were
over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt). Projected Canadian
wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.5 mmt.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 970 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending steadily
higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated food demand for processed
wheat products. This projected amount of 970 mb food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 10 mb or 1.04%
from 960 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, from 945 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1
and Figure 4).
Page | 5
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up marginally from 74 mb in “current”
MY 2013/14, and from 73 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but equal to 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and
Figure 4). The USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 extends
the historic pattern of the existence of a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed. Seed wheat
demand is driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage
each year (from on‐farm and commercial seed sources) and also the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to
cover possible seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down sharply from 1.185
bb for “current” MY 2013/14 (which is up 10 mb from April). This amount of U.S. wheat exports would be the
lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10. The anticipation of lower available supplies of U.S. hard red winter wheat
for export sales in 2014/15 along with the likelihood of more than adequate foreign wheat supplies are factors
in this lower U.S. export projection of 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4). That said, the
risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15 Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino
weather pattern in coming months, as well as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from
geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region (between Russian and Ukraine) are factors that may support
World wheat prices in the new crop marketing year.
On May 1st cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year totaled
1.021 bb, which is 86.2% of the USDA’s projected “current” MY 2013/14 exports of 1.185 bb with 92.3% (48 of
52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “Current year” MY 2013/14 ends on May 31, 2014. United States’
export shipments will need to average 41.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14
marketing year to attain the USDA’s May WASDE projection of 1.185 bb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S.
of 24.9 mb and 19.3 mb occurred during the weeks ending March 24th and May 1st, respectively, were “behind
pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 1.185 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign
Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
However, accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 139.1 mb in U.S. wheat for “current” MY
2013/14 (that had not yet been shipped as of May 1st), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments
added up to 1.161 bb (i.e., 1.021 bb shipped plus 139.1 mb forward sales with rounding) for “current” MY
2013/14. This amounts to 98.0% of the USDA’s projection of 1.185 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 with 92.3% of
the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 48 of 52 weeks).
There are also 114.9 mb of forward sales of U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year as of
May 1st. It is possible if not likely that some of the unshipped forward sales remaining in “current year” MY
2013/14 will be cancelled and possibly “rolled forward” into “new crop” MY 2014/15 (beginning on June 1st).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 170 mb in “next crop”
MY 2014/15, down from 220 mb for “current” MY 2013/14, from the recent high of 388 mb in MY 2012/13,
while still being up from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has
declined due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more abundant U.S. feedgrain
supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. Subsequently, there is now
lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in both …
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
Page | 10
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: The USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 974 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17,
following a consistent upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b)
associated regular increases in domestic demand for processed wheat products. This estimated projected
amount of 974 mb in food use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 967 mb for “current crop” MY 2015/16,
958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Seed Use: The USDA forecast seed use of approximately 69 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17, up from 66 mb
in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 79 mb in MY 2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY
2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 775 mb in “current
crop” MY 2015/16, but is down marginally from 854 mb in MY 2014/15. Total U.S. wheat exports of 775 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16 is the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72 prior to the
“Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Projections by KSU of “next crop” MY
2016/17 U.S. wheat exports are also 850 mb – equal to the USDA’s projection of 850 mb (Table 1).
The primary factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies – in
particular those of other major World wheat exporters, and b) prospects for fully adequate supplies of
competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That said, there are several factors that could
change the current “low export demand” situation for the United States, including 1) the uncertain impact on
World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts – such as those between Russian and
Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in
other major World wheat production areas due to anticipated the “El Nino” or an “El Nino transition to a La
Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such
potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should occur in late 2015 or in
2016, such weather uncertainties are being treated as non‐factors in current World wheat export and wheat
futures markets.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through March 10th – the 42nd week of the “current crop”
2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 547.6 mb, which is 70.65% of the USDA’s projected
“current crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 775 mb, with 82.7% (43 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.
The “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United
States’ wheat export shipments will need to average 25.3 mb per week through the remainder of the “current
crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s March 9th WASDE projection of 775 mb. Total wheat
export shipments by the United States of 15.34 mb and 15.29 mb during the weeks ending March 3rd and
March 10th, respectively, are behind the pace (25.3 mb / week) needed to meet even the record low USDA
forecast of 775 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 134.7 mb in U.S. wheat for “current
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of March 10th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 682.3 mb (i.e., 547.6 mb shipped plus 134.7 mb forward sales). This
amounts to 88.0% of the USDA’s projection of 775 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 82.7% of the
marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 43 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on
Page | 11
potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 775 mb target set by
the USDA in the March 9th WASDE report.
Feed & Residual Use: In the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum the USDA projected that U.S. feed and
residual use for “next crop” MY 2016/17 to be 200 mb, whereas in the March 9th WASDE report, the USDA
projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 150 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up from 122 mb for
“old crop” MY 2014/15, down from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY
2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Projections by KSU of “next crop” MY 2016/17 U.S. wheat feed use are 175
mb, down from the USDA’s projection of 200 mb (Table 1).
Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 from the previous year, and has
remained lower in “current crop” MY 2015/16 due to the availability in domestic markets of sizable 2013,
2014, and 2015 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and supplies at low prices. This situation has led to large
competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
March 20, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
In its February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference, the USDA projected that 55.5 million acres (ma) of
wheat would be planted in the U.S. in 2014, down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and 55.666 ma in 2012, but up from
54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). Conversely, projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage was
projected to be 47.2 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013, down from 48.921 ma in 2012, and up from 45.705 ma in
2011.
The reason that forecast U.S. wheat harvested acreage is higher in 2014 even though planted acreage is
expected to be down from the previous year is because of an expected return to a normal harvested‐to‐
planted acreage relationship. The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat
is projected to be 85.0%, up sharply from 80.4% in 2013, down from 87.9% in 2012, and up from 84.0% in
2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since
81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
Projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 45.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down from the record high of
47.2 bu/ac in 2013, less than the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, but above 43.7 bu/ac in
2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3). The USDA projected of 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 2.160 billion bushels
(bb) – which is comparable to 2.130 bb in 2013 and 2.266 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011
(Table 1).
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage by Class for 2014
In its January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage
seeded in the fall of 2013 for harvest in 2014 to be 41.892 million acres (ma) – down from 43.090 ma in 2013,
“Old Crop”
MAY 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $7.88 ¼
on Wed., Mar. 19
“New Crop”
JULY 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $7.83
on Wed., Mar. 19
Page | 4
but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). The USDA’s February 21st projection of
55.5 ma of U.S. wheat planted implicitly uses the January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of
41.892 ma, along with assumptions about 2014 U.S. other spring and durum wheat acreage. If the USDA
assumed 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage was equal to 2013‐levels of 11.6 ma, then 2014 U.S.
durum wheat planted acreage would be approximately 2.0 ma. The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. other spring
wheat planted acreage to 11.596 ma is down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011. The
USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage to 1.470 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but
up from 1.369 ma in 2011. The USDA has made no formal public projections of 2014 harvested acreage or
yields for U.S. winter, other spring or durum wheat classes.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
At the 2014 Agricultural Outlook Conference, the USDA projected that total supplies of U.S. wheat for
“next crop” MY 2014/15 would be 2.868 bb, are projected to be 3.018 bb – down from 3.131 bb in “last year’s”
MY 2012/13, but up from 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12. Total supplies of 2.868 bb resulted from beginning stocks
of 558 mb, projected 2014 production of 2.160 bb, and projected imports of 150 mb (Table 1).
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 558 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be down 22.3% from
718 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and from 743 mb in MY 2013/14 – down to the lowest level since 306 mb in
MY 2008/09. This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the upcoming marketing year illustrates
the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat supplies that has occurred over the last four marketing years
(since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in MY 2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 150 mb for “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. The next highest amounts since MY
1973/74 have been a) 127 mb in MY 2008/09, b) 123 mb in MY 2012/13, c) 122 mb in MY 2006/07, and 119
mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or
1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has an impact on U.S. wheat imports. The next largest Canadian
wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986
(31.359 mmt).
Projected total supplies of 2.868 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be the smallest amount in seven (7)
years, compared to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY
2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.018 bb in “current”
MY 2013/14.
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up 10 mb from January,
and up from both 945 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The
USDA forecast U.S. wheat food use of approximately 965 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 at the February 21st
2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook conference, extending the “population growth trend” driven inelastic demand
for U.S. wheat food usage.
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 74 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 73 mb in “last year’s” MY
2012/13, and down from 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use
of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 at the February 21st 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook
Page | 5
conference, extending the relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed – driven primarily by that
amount of U.S. wheat seeded acreage.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 1.175 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 are up 50 mb from January‐
February, and up 75 mb from the December 2013 WASDE. This amount of exports is also up from both 1.007
bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
On March 6th cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year totaled
862.9 mb, 73.4% of projected “current” MY 2013/14 exports of 1.175 bb with 84.6% (44 of 52 weeks) of the
marketing year completed. United States’ export shipments will need to average 39.0 mb per week through
the remainder of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year to attain the USDA’s March WASDE projection of 1.175
bb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 23.5 mb and 16.7 mb occurred during the weeks ending February
27th and March 6th, respectively, were “behind pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.175
bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export
Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
However, accounting for additional unshipped forward export sales of 206.1 mb in U.S. wheat for
“current” MY 2013/14 that had not yet been shipped as of March 6th, total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 1.069 bb (i.e., 862.9 mb shipped plus 206.1 mb forward sales with
rounding) for “current” MY 2013/14. This amounts to 91.0% of the USDA’s projection of 1.175 bb for “current”
MY 2013/14 with 84.6% of the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 44 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 190 mb in “next crop”
MY 2014/15 at the February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference, down from 250 mb for “current” MY
2013/14, from the recent high of 388 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being up from 162 mb in MY
2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has declined largely due to sizable 2013 U.S.
corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than
during “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and subsequently to lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock
feed rations – in eit …
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Tra
de
W
td
U.S
. D
oll
ar
Ind
ex
(19
73
=1
00
)
Date (Month/Day/Year)
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (1973=100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Page | 5
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
Beginning with the September 30, 2015 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains
2015 Summary report and following with its’ subsequent October 9th, November 10th, and December 9th USDA
NASS 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.178 ma (‐3.8%) from 56.822 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In the December 9th NASS Crop Production report the USDA left unchanged
its previous October‐November forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings of 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐
7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma
are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in
2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at
7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4% from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects
there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from
3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: In December the USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October‐
November projections of total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres
(+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma
are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
Also beginning in the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent
October, November, and December USDA NASS 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that
2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385
ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma (+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up
from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: In December the USDA maintained its previous October‐November
forecasts of 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299
ma in 2014, down 393,000 acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma
in 2012. Of this total, 23.14 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from
21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was
projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015,
Page | 6
USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW)
wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in 2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0%
from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October‐November projections that
total U.S. other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous
forecast. This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres
(+1.6%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma
are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the December 9, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production report the USDA maintained it’s October‐November
projections of 2015 U.S. average wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from projections of
44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection
of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1
bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels
(bb). This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the
2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA in December
are unchanged from October‐November, but down 84 mb from the September WASDE report, resulting from
beginning stocks of 753 mb, projected 2015 production of 2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1
and Figure 7). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY
2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11,
2.969 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15, and are
now projected to be 2.930 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15 (the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY 1973/74 and
prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2)
124 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Page | 7
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt
(1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.6 mmt (1,014 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990
(32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 follows a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in
domestic demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop”
MY 2015/16 follows 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 8).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). The USDA’s forecast of U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat for seed use purposes. Seed demand is driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to
plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with
consideration for the risk of possible shortfalls in annual seed wheat production.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 in December are unchanged
from November, but down 50 mb from October, down 100 mb from September, 125 mb from August, and 150
mb from July. This projection of 800 mb in U.S. wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down 6.3% from
854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is down to the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY
1971/72 prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Over the last ten (10)
marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in
MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now a projection of
800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United
States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical
conflicts – such as those between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East, and 2) the
potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the
likelihood of an “El Nino” or an “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer
of 2016. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other
market events should occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such market uncertainties are being treated as non‐factors
in current World wheat export and futures markets.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through December 10th – the 29th week of the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 386.0 mb, which is 48.25% of the USDA’s projected
Page | 8
“new crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 800 mb, with 55.8% (29 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United
States’ wheat export shipments will need to average 18.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “new
crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s December 9th WASDE projection of 800 mb. Total wheat
export shipments by the United States of 7.9 mb and 12.2 mb during the weeks ending December 3rd and 10th,
respectively, are behind the pace (18.0 mb / week) to meet even the recently reduced USDA forecast of 800
mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly
Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 136.1 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of December 10th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 552.1 mb (i.e., 386.0 mb shipped plus 136.1 mb forward sales). This
amounts to 69.0% of the USDA’s projection of 800 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 55.8% of the
marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 29 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on
potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 800 mb target set by
the USDA in the December 9th WASDE report.
Feed & Residual Use: In December the USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 180 mb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16, unchanged from October‐November, but down 20 mb from September. This
projection of 180 mb in U.S. feed and residual use in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 120 mb for “old crop”
MY 2014/15, down from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13
(Table 1 and Figure 8). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 from th
previous year, and also in “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to the availability in domestic markets of sizable 2013
and 2014 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and supplies. This situation has led to large competitive U.S.
feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
March 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
re 5.746 ma (based on historic average harvested‐to‐planted
acres relationships), with long term trend yields for 2016 of 67.3 bu/ac, and 2016 U.S. grain sorghum
production of 387 mb (down 23 mb from the USDA). Total use of 385 mb includes 109 mb food, alcohol, and
industrial use (up 10 mb from USDA), non‐seed use of 1 mb (same as USDA), exports of 130 mb (down 70 mb
vs USDA), and livestock feed and residual use of …