Search
Displaying 3321 - 3330 of 5631
December 24, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
rain sorghum exports and prices has been due largely to Chinese
import restrictions for particular varieties of GMO corn from the U.S. – and China’s willingness to substitute
grain sorghum imports to fulfill their domestic livestock feed needs. With recent news that China may be
softening these GMO corn restrictions, it is possible that U.S. grain sorghum exports and prices may weaken.
But evidence of this has not yet occurred in U.S. sorghum exports or in local Kansas grain sorghum basis levels.
USDA U.S. Sorghum Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast 2014 U.S.
sorghum production to be 408 million bushels (mb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage of
7.213 million acres or ‘ma’, and 6.174 ma, respectively, and a 2014 U.S. yield of 66.1 bu/acre. The USDA
projected U.S. sorghum total supplies of 442 mb, up 9.4% from 404 mb last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total
sorghum usage of 405 mb (up 35 mb vs a year ago) is made up of food, seed and industrial use of 80 mb (up 10
mb from MY 2013/14), exports of 230 mb (up from 212 mb a year ago), and feed and residual use of 95 mb (up
7 mb vs last year). “Current crop” ending stocks are forecast at 37 mb (9.14% S/U) – up from 34 mb (9.19%
S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 15 mb (5.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13. The USDA raised its forecast of “current crop”
MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices by $0.05 to the range of $3.20‐$3.80 per bu. with a midpoint of
$3.50 – down from $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and $6.33 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Sorghum S/D Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative projection by KSU Extension to
the USDA for “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. sorghum supply‐demand and prices is as follows: “Increased
Usage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 408 mb U.S. sorghum supplies (same as USDA), 417.5 mb total use (up 3.1%
from USDA), 24.5 mb ending stocks, 5.9% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S. sorghum price (vs $3.50 /bu by the USDA).
KSU U.S. Sorghum S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: A KSU projection for “next crop” MY 2015/16
for U.S. sorghum is as follows: “2015 Less 3.3% Planted Acres” Scenario: 6.978 ma planted in 2015, 5.783 ma
harvested, trend yields of 66.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. sorghum production of 382 mb, U.S. sorghum supplies of 419
mb, total use of 355 mb, ending stocks of 27 mb, 7.6% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. sorghum season average prices.
World Coarse Grains: Forecast coarse grain total supplies of 1,485 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up
from 1,449 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,305 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World coarse grain ending stocks of
227.2 mmt (18.1% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 209.5 mmt (16.9% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
168.9 mmt (14.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Chinese imports and total use of coarse grains has increased from 5.6
mmt / 209.7 mmt in MY 2012/13, to 12.5 mmt / 227.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, to 11.6 mmt / 232.2 mmt in
“current crop” MY 2014/15. World imports have increased my 11.4% over the MY 2012/13‐2014/15 period.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. December 2014 USDA Reports & “Current crop” MY 2014/15
Projections
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. corn and grain sorghum production
estimates for 2014. The December Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production,
with no substantive changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report – which was based on
farmer surveys and objective field plot measurement information gathered during the October 25th through
November 5th period. The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for grain
sorghum, corn and other feedgrains, wheat, soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop
Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same day USDA NASS will
also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. grain sorghum and World
coarse grain supply‐demand projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing
years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. grain
sorghum marketing year began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. CME Corn Futures Trends for the October‐December 2014 Period
Local cash grain sorghum prices are determined by local basis adjustments relative to corn futures
contracts. In this section, recent trends in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices are
examined – given their relevance to cash grain sorghum prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Since the beginning of October 2014 corn futures prices have been generally trending higher – indicating at
the low trading price of $3.18 ¼ for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract were indeed the fall harvest
low (i.e., unless March 2015 CME corn futures prices drop sharply before the end of this month). The
DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up
$0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.
A time of seasonal market weakness for U.S. feedgrain prices has typically occurred during the months of
January‐February in large crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again
sometime before spring, 2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract
on October 1st could be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal
price decline occur in coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
Page | 3
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.14 ¼ on Monday, December 22nd
before closing at $4.11 ¾ on that same day.
The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash grain sorghum and corn price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.37 ¾ on Monday, December 22nd before closing at $4.34
¾ on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” grain sorghum and corn forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
July 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
$6.32 ½ Low
July 11th
Page | 4
wheat production to be 1.992 billion bushels (bb) – up 50 million bushels (mb) from June, but down from 2.130
bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in 2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
As indicated above, updated estimates of U.S. winter wheat planted and harvested acreage were given in
the June 30th USDA NASS Acreage report. Consequently, the July 11th USDA Crop Production report followed
these numbers in projecting U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be 42.296 ma. These acres of winter wheat
were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection
of 42.296 ma planted in the U.S. for 2014 harvest is down from 43.090 ma for 2013, but greater than 41.224
ma for 2012, and 40.646 ma for 2011 (Figure 1). Winter wheat harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014 is
projected to be 32.419 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of
76.6%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013 of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013
U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%.
The extreme drought conditions and freeze damage that have occurred this past fall and winter in the U.S.
Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska have been the primary factors leading
to a lower than normal forecast of percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2014. Even with recent moisture
received in parts of Kansas in recent weeks, it is possible that the carryover impact of earlier wheat crop
development problems in these states will cause the proportion of 2014 harvested‐to‐planted acres to decline
even further, possibly even below the 75.2% level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 42.2 bu/ac, down 0.2 bu/ac from June, and
down from the record high of 47.4 bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to
be 1.367 bb, down 0.014 bb (13.628 million bushels or ‘mb’) from June, and down from 1.534 bb in 2013. Of
the 2014 total U.S. All Wheat Production of 1.992 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast
to be 703 mb – down 17 mb from June – and down from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter wheat
production is forecast to be 458 mb, down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower U.S. soft red
winter wheat planted acreage in 2014. White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be
206 mb, down from 225 mb in 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield and Production for 2014
The USDA projection of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted and harvested acreage is equal to the June
30th USDA Acreage report forecast of 12.709 ma and 12.403 ma, respectively. The USDA’s estimate of 2014
U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 12.709 ma is up from 11.596 ma in 2013, from 12.289 ma in 2012,
and from 12.394 ma in 2011. Other spring wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 45.6 bu/ac,
down from the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 other spring wheat production is
forecast to be 564.6 mb, up from 533.5 mb in 2013.
The USDA’s estimate of 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted and harvested acreage to 1.469 ma and 1.418 ma,
respectively, are essentially equal to year earlier levels, while 2014 durum wheat planted acreage of 1.469 ma
is comparable to 1.470 ma in 2013, 2.153 ma in 2012, and 1.369 ma in 2011. Durum wheat yields in 2014 in
the U.S. are projected to be 42.1 bu/ac, down from 43.6 bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 durum wheat
production is forecast to be 59.6 mb, down from 61.9 mb in 2013.
Page | 5
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of 2.741 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15, resulting from beginning
stocks of 590 mb, projected 2014 production of 1.992 bb, and projected imports of 160 mb (Table 1). Total
supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.741 bb in MY 2014/15 are up 50 mb from the June WASDE report, but still down to
the lowest amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. Over the last eight
(8) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08,
2.932 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb
in MY 2012/13, 3.016 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 2.741 bb in “new crop” MY
2014/15.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 590 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 follow from the June 1st U.S.
wheat stocks estimate in the June 30th USDA Quarterly Stocks report. This projection of 590 mb in U.S. wheat
beginning stocks for MY 2014/15 is down 3 mb from June, and is down 17.8% from 718 mb in beginning stocks
in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14. This would be the lowest level of U.S.
wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the historically tight ending stocks situation
that developed in MY 2007/08). This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the “new crop”
2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the pattern that had developed of steadily increasing tightness of
U.S. wheat supplies over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in
MY 2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 160 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 168 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is also down 2 mb from
June). Since MY 1973/74 the next highest amounts have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY
2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat
production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has had an impact
on U.S. wheat markets in “old crop” MY 2013/14. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were
over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt). Projected Canadian
wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.5 mmt.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending
consistently higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated increases in demand
for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 960 mb in food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up
from 950 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, from 945 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1
and Figure 4).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down marginally from 77 mb in “old
crop” MY 2013/14, and compares to 73 mb in MY 2012/13, and 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
The USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but
inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed over time, driven primarily by a the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed
to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from on‐farm and commercial seed sources), and b) by the
need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover possible seed wheat production shortfalls from year to year.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 900 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (down 50 mb from May and
down 25 mb from June) are down sharply from 1.182 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is up 2 mb from
Page | 6
June). This amount of U.S. wheat exports would be the lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10. The anticipation
of lower available supplies of U.S. hard red winter wheat for export sales in “new crop” MY 2014/15, along
with the likelihood of more than adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are factors in this
lower U.S. export projection of 900 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4). That said, the risk of
lower “new crop” MY 2014/15 Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino weather
pattern in coming months, as well as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from
geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine) and potential dry or otherwise adverse weather
conditions in other are factors that may eventually support increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World
wheat prices in the later stages of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through July 3rd – the 5th week of the “new crop” 2014/15
marketing year for U.S. wheat, totaled 79.7 mb, which is 8.9% of the USDA’s projected “new crop” MY 2014/15
exports of 900 mb with 9.6% (5 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “New crop” MY 2014/15 ends
on May 31, 2015. United States’ export shipments will need to average 17.5 mb per week through the
remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s July WASDE projection of 900 mb.
Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 12.3 mb and 14.5 mb during the weeks ending June 26th and July 3rd,
respectively, were “behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 900 bb in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing
year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
However, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 220.3 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2014/15 (that had not yet been shipped as of July 3rd), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding
shipments added up to 300.0 mb (i.e., 79.7 mb shipped plus 220.3 mb forward sales with rounding). This
amounts to 33.3% of the USDA’s projection of 900 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 with 9.6% of the marketing
year having already occurred (i.e., 5 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 160 mb in “new crop”
MY 2014/15, down 10 mb from May. This projection of 160 mb is down from 220 mb for “old crop” MY
2013/14, the recent high of 388 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Domestic U.S. wheat feeding in “old crop” MY 2013/14 declined due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain
sorghum crops – which lead to more abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during the
“drought stricken” MY 2012/13. Subsequently, there is now lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in
livestock feed rations – in both …
June 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th $7.13 ¼ Close
June 13th
$7.02 Low
June 12th
Page | 3
eventually impact 2014 World wheat markets if such conditions prolong and cause more pronounced crop
damage in coming weeks and months (such as occurred in both 2010 and 2012 in that region of the World).
“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices have responded to the release of
the May 9th USDA reports by trading generally lower. JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices
opened at $7.28 on Wednesday, June 11th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m.,
central time), and traded in a low‐high range of $7.03 ¼ to $7.31 ¼ during the session before closing $0.21 ¾
lower for the day at $7.04 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). On Thursday (June 12th) and Friday (June 13th), JULY 2014 Kansas
City wheat efutures prices traded in the range from a low of $7.02 on June 12th up to a high of $7.19 ½ on June
13th, before closing at $7.13 ¼ on Friday, June 13th – up $0.07 ¼ per bushel from the previous trading day.
Longer term, after trading at a low of $5.99 ¾ on January 29th, electronic July 2014 Kansas City Hard Red
Winter Wheat futures prices trending sharply higher up to $7.94 ¼ on March 20th, and up to $8.55 ½ on May
6th. Since then, July 2014 Kansas Wheat futures have trended lower, trading as low as $7.02 on Jto since.
Futures trended generally higher since the low, moving as high as $8.55 ½ on May 6th prior to the lower closes
following the May 9th USDA reports.
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 55.815 million acres (ma), down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and
55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, in the WASDE
report the USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 45.9 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013,
down from 48.921 ma in 2012, and up from 45.705 ma in 2011. Updated estimates of U.S. wheat planted and
harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 82.2%,
up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012 and 84.0% in 2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐
planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 42.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down 0.4 bu/ac from May,
and down from the record high of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010,
and 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3). The USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 1.942
billion bushels (bb) – down 21 million bushels (mb) from May, and down from 2.130 bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in
2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
In its June 11th USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be
42.007 million acres (ma). These acres of winter wheat were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of
harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection of 42.007 ma planted in the U.S. in 2014 is down from
43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). As indicated above,
updated estimates of U.S. winter wheat planted and harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS
Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Winter wheat harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014
is projected to be 32.572 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of
77.5%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013 of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013
U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%. The extreme drought conditions and freeze
Page | 4
damage that have occurred this past fall and winter in the U.S. Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas,
Colorado and Nebraska have been the primary factors leading to a lower than normal forecast of percent
harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2014. Even with recent moisture received in parts of Kansas in recent weeks,
it is possible that the carryover impact of earlier wheat crop development problems in these states will cause
the proportion of 2014 harvested‐to‐planted acres to decline even further, possibly even below the 75.2%
level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 42.4 bu/ac, down from 43.1 bu/ac in May,
down from the record high of 47.4 bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to
be 1.381 bb, down 0.021 bb (21.445 million bushels or ‘mb’) from May, and down from 1.534 bb in 2013. Of
the 2014 total U.S. All Wheat Production of 1.963 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast
to be 720 mb – down 26 mb from May – but down marginally from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter
wheat production is forecast to be 454 mb, down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower U.S. soft
red winter wheat planted acreage in 2014. White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to
be 206 mb, down 3 mb from May, and down from 225 mb in 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield and Production for 2014
The USDA projection of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage is equal to the March 31st USDA
Prospective Plantings report forecast of 12.009 ma. Similarly, 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage is
forecast to be 1.799 ma. The USDA’s estimate of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 12.009 ma is
down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011. The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat
planted acreage to 1.799 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011. Updated
estimates of U.S. spring and durum wheat planted and harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS
Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014.
Based on its internal projections that have not been formally released to the public, the USDA World
Agricultural Outlook Board has calculated 2014 U.S. other spring wheat and durum harvested acres using 10‐
year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state off of its state‐level planted acreage projections. Similarly, spring
wheat and durum wheat yields were estimated using 1985‐2013 yield trends by state (except for durum wheat
in Arizona, California, and Idaho). The combined 2014 production forecast for U.S. spring and durum wheat
together is approximately 560.5 mb, down from 595.4 mb (533.5 mb of other spring wheat, and 61.9 mb or
durum wheat) in 2013.
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of 2.695 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15, resulting from beginning
stocks of 593 mb, projected 2014 production of 1.942 bb, and projected imports of 160 mb (Table 1). Total
supplies of U.S. wheat would be 2.695 bb in MY 2014/15 are down 11 mb from May, down to the lowest
amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. Projected total supplies of
2.695 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932
bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb in MY
2012/13, and 3.018 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 593 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is up 10 mb from May, and is
down 17.4% from 718 mb beginning stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14.
This would be the lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the tight
Page | 5
ending stocks situation that developed in MY 2007/08. This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into
the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat
supplies that has occurred over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976
mb in MY 2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 160 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. The next highest amounts since MY
1973/74 have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119
mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or
1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has had and likely will continue to have an impact on U.S. wheat
imports until the 2014 U.S. wheat harvest period. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were
over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt). Projected Canadian
wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.5 mmt.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending steadily
higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated food demand for processed
wheat products. This projected amount of 960 mb food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down 10 mb from
May, but up from 950 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is also down 10 mb from May), from 945 mb in MY
2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up marginally from 74 mb in “old crop”
MY 2013/14, and from 73 mb in MY 2012/13, but equal to 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The
USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 extends the historic
pattern of the existence of a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed. Seed wheat demand is
driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year
(from on‐farm and commercial seed sources) and also the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover
possible seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 925 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (down 25 mb from May) are
down sharply from 1.180 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is down 5 mb from May). This amount of U.S.
wheat exports would be the lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10. The anticipation of lower available supplies
of U.S. hard red winter wheat for export sales in “new crop” MY 2014/15, along with the likelihood of more
than adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are factors in this lower U.S. export
projection of 925 mb in 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4). That said, the risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15
Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino weather pattern in coming months, as well
as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and
Ukraine) and dry weather in parts of the Black Sea Region (Russia) are factors that may eventually support
increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World wheat prices in the new crop marketing year.
In the very beginning week of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year (starting on June 1st), as of June 5th
cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments totaled 12.067 mb, which is 1.3% of the USDA’s projected “new crop”
MY 2014/15 exports of 925 mb with 1.9% (1 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “New crop” MY
2014/15 ends on May 31, 2015. United States’ export shipments will need to average 17.9 mb per week
through the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s June WASDE projection
of 925 mb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 12.067 mb occurred during the week ending June 5th, were
Page | 6
“behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 925 bb in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year. (Source: USDA
Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html).
However, accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 227.7 mb in U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY
2014/15 (that had not yet been shipped as of June 5th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments
added up to 239.8 mb (i.e., 12.1 mb shipped plus 227.7 mb forward sales with rounding) for “new crop” MY
2014/15. This amounts to 25.9% of the USDA’s projection of 925 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 with 1.9% of
the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 1 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 160 mb in “new crop”
MY 2014/15, down 10 my from May, and down from 220 mb for “old crop” MY 2013/14, from the recent high
of 388 mb in MY 2012/13, and up marginally from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Domestic
U.S. wheat feeding has declined due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more
abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.
Subsequently, there is now lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in both …
November 21, 2012
USDA METSS Project
Maize Price Trends in Ghana (2007‐2011)1
Vincent Amanor‐Boadu, PhD2
Maize (Zea mays, L.) is a principal human food and livestock feed in Ghana. Its production is
essentially performed by smallholder farmers under traditional tillage and rain‐fed conditions.
Although production occurs in all of Ghana's ten administrative regions, more than 70% of
maize output comes from five regions in three of the six agro‐ecological zones. The five
principal growing regions are Northern, Brong‐Ahafo, Ashanti, Central and Eastern and the
three agro‐ecological zones are guinea savanna, forest savanna transition and semi‐deciduous
rainforest (Table 1). Forest savanna transition and the semi‐deciduous agro‐ecological zones
have a bimodal rainfall distribution pattern, with the major season beginning in March and
ending in July and the minor season beginning in September and ending in October/November.
The guinea savanna agro‐ecological zone has a uni‐modal rainfall distribution that starts in May
and ends in September.
Table 1: Distribution of Maize Production by Region and Agro‐Ecological Zones (2006)
Region …
June 4, 2015
Agribusiness Papers
the non-performing loans by livestock industry sector. Respondents … dairy, and hog
sectors. The livestock sector has been bolstered … Non-Performing Loans, By Livestock Industry Sector – Diffusion …
October 15, 2018
2018 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
vs 5.601 bb last year)
o Livestock Feed 2018/19 = 5.550 bln … Corn Use – By Category
Livestock Feed
Ethanol
Exports
End … inventories of grain, feed, & livestock are valued / handled
…
November 16, 2018
“Renaissance”
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/232526/2/agecon-vt-98-2.pdf
http://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
If demand … higher!
http://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
Note … Demand?
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
https://www.beefboard.org/search.asp?cof=F
ORID%3A11&cx=000951561340430319383%3
Aosws6nacbuw&ie=UTF-8&q=beef+demand
https://www.beefboard.org/producer/170221
Beef-Demand-Landing-Page.asp
https://www.beefboard.org/evaluation/1801
31beef-demand-determinant.asp
What …
December 11, 2018
Krebs)
http://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
If demand … 26
http://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
Note … Demand?
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
https://www.beefboard.org/search.asp?cof=F
ORID%3A11&cx=000951561340430319383%3
Aosws6nacbuw&ie=UTF-8&q=beef+demand
https://www.beefboard.org/producer/170221
Beef-Demand-Landing-Page.asp
https://www.beefboard.org/evaluation/1801
31beef-demand-determinant.asp
What …
October 16, 2020
Animal ID & Traceability
professor and extension livestock economist at Iowa State University … prevention? 173 41% 119 12.1%
Livestock deaths? 66 16% 210 21.4 … Nose-to-nose contact with livestock on adjacent premises is prevented …
January 4, 2021
International Grain Markets
pandemic severely impact
livestock markets, as increasing
cases … homes, farms, businesses, livestock, and crops was
an estimated … supported by an expanding livestock sector. World corn exports …