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November 10, 2016
2016 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Non-Convergence?
b. Alternative policies and consequences for addressing … Non-Convergence?
b. Alternative policies and consequences for addressing … Rights Reserved11/2/2016
Policy Alternatives to Address Non-Convergence
1 …
June 24, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
The U.S. Corn Market Situation on June 24, 2019
The serious and prolonged excess moisture problems during the 2019 spring planting season for
U.S. corn have led to a sharp reduction in 2019 U.S. corn production prospects. In some areas of the
U.S. Corn Belt the historic extremely moist field condition situation that began during April‐May has
persisted through June 2019 – beyond crop insurance full coverage deadlines and the physiological
limits of a normal annual planting / growing season.
The strong likelihood of a major U.S. corn production shortfall in year 2019 has brought about the
strong likelihood of a classic “short crop” scenario occurring for U.S. corn in the “new crop” 2019/20
marketing year. The last major “short crop” marketing year for U.S. corn occurred seven (7) years ago
in year 2012 due to extreme summer heat and accompanying crop stress – rather than the over‐
abundance of rainfall with accompanying flooding and soggy fields that has occurred in Spring 2019.
In so many words, calendar year 2019 has already become a unique, “analog” year in terms of
how spring moisture has delayed or prevented U.S. corn plantings. What remains to be seen are that
actual, physical “numbers” for planted and harvested U.S. corn acres, the rate of crop development
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and eventual degree of physiological maturity in the fall of 2019, and the final size and quality of the
2019 U.S. corn crop going into “new crop” MY 2019/20.
These U.S. corn supply concerns have driven corn futures sharply higher in recent weeks as the
corn market anticipates how sharply reduced 2019 U.S. corn production would lead to much tighter
U. S. corn supply‐demand balances and the need for price rationing of usage in “new crop” MY
2019/20 (beginning on September 1, 2019).
For example, “old crop” JULY 2019 Corn futures prices have increased from a low of $3.43 per
bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.38 on May 29th, and then up to a high of $4.64 ¼ on June 17th,
before closing lower at $4.47 on June 24th. Similarly, “new crop” DEC 2019 Corn futures prices have
increased from a low $3.63 ¾ per bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.54 on May 29th, and then
likewise up to a high of $4.73 on June 17th, before closing lower at $4.57 ¼ on June 24th . (Figures 1 &
2a‐b). With this rally in corn futures, managed money (specs) traders who had been holding record
short or bearish positions during April through mid‐May, through mid‐June have bought back much
(but not all) of their bearish short futures positions and instead build up the long or buy side of their
speculative trade portfolios (Figures 3a‐b‐c‐d).
The U.S. government is also planning to provide a second round of Market Facilitation Payments
(MFPs) to U.S. crop producers, with the stipulation that crops have to be actually planted in year
2019 to collect these MFP funds. That actual crop acres had to be planted for farmers to receive this
second round of MFP payments has been the policy position of the USDA Far …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The recent upward trend in the relative value of the U.S. dollar began in earnest when the dollar index was
valued at 77.5948 in August 2014. This upward trend continued throughout the remainder of 2014, through
2015, into early 2016 – with the index climbing to a high of 95.2896 in January 2016 (up 22.8% from August
2014). Following that high, the index declined moderately, falling to a low of 89.3747 in April 2016, before
trending essentially sideways to an average of 90.0988 in September 2016, while increasing to 91.9193 in
October and 93.6646 in November 2016. Due to changes in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and U.S.
interest rate management strategies within the last month, U.S. trade weighted dollar index futures for
MARCH 2017 traded up to 103.625 on December 20, 2016, before closing at 103.007 on Tuesday, December
27, 2016 – near 14 year highs.
In addition, since 1980 the global price of wheat has a monthly average of $4.52 per bushel (in U.S.
dollars) with a median value of $4.24 per bushel – which like the historic U.S. dollar index above indicates
positive skewness (i.e., a few extremely high values pulling up the average) (Figure 3). The historic low in
global wheat prices since 1980 on a monthly basis was $2.41 per bushel – occurring in October 1999, while the
historic high of $10.99 per bushel occurred in March 2008. Over the January 1980 through November 2016
period the global price of wheat has sloped upward marginally at a rate of +$0.0053 per bushel per month.
Figure 3. Monthly U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Major Currencies) vs Global Wheat Prices (in
USD$s), January 1980 to November 2016 (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED) …
March 1, 2012
Fed Cattle Pricing
January 2012, courtesy of the Livestock Marketing
Information Center … weights was from monthly NASS livestock
slaughter reports, also … reports, also provided by the Livestock Marketing Information Center …
October 3, 2013
Requirements for
Traceability of Livestock and Meat
Quick Background … international trade to
U.S. livestock industries is growing
3 … economic impacts on U.S.
livestock and meat producers and
consumers …
May 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
of Ag Economics MF-2679 Livestock Economics
Kansas State University … yet implemented. One such policy being
considered is a ban … domestic cattle prices. The policy
could, however, result in …
August 17, 2016
Breakout session presentations
numerous issues related to the livestock industries. She is
interested … concentration include
general livestock economics, food demand, supply … first-hand knowledge with livestock production, Glynn has economic …
February 4, 2016
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
consultants, lenders, and policy makers.
Pasture Lease … for activities other than livestock. Moving
from north to south … for purposes other than
livestock increased. There were 25.58 …