Search
Displaying 51 - 60 of 111
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 … 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 …
February 4, 2013
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Solutions
2013 Risk & Financial Management Conference
Brian C. Briggeman
Associate Professor and
Director of the Arthur Capper Cooperative Center
• … Herd liquidation continues?
3. Uncertainty of macro events outside of producers’ control
Will agriculture boom or bust in 2013?
2/4/2013
2
While the drought dinged net farm incomes in
2012, incomes were some of the largest on record.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
29
19
32
19
35
19
38
19
41
19
44
19
47
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
2005 Constant Dollars (Billions)
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Net Farm Income
20
12
F
USDA forecasts 2012
NFI to decline 5%
Ending Stocks‐to‐Daily Use
Source: USDA PS&D Data
The 2012 drought made an already tight stock
situation even tighter.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Corn
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Wheat
20 year average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
SoybeansDays Available …
March 11, 2022
Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
Hence, even with higher revenue projections net profit remained uncertain
• … Expanded livestock producer, price risk management resources
• … Corn
Markets Often Operate Like A Pendulum Consider 2019 Holcomb Event
Higher Grain Price Impacts: Primarily A Supply‐Side Story• …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Positive Corn Market Factors
However, a number of factors are providing positive support for U.S. corn supply‐demand and price
prospects – including strong exports, developing harvest delays from wet fall weather, ongoing strong ethanol
usage, and uncertain South American corn production prospects in in 2019.
Strong U.S. Corn Exports: In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been strong – above the pace
needed to meet the USDA’s October 11th updated forecast of 2.475 bb in exports for “new crop” MY
2018/19. For the weeks ending September 27th and October 4th, the U.S. had corn export shipments of
55.4 and 53.2 million bushels (mb), respectively. These were above the pace of 47.8 mb needed to meet
the USDA forecast of 2.475 bb – which had already been raised by 75 mb in the October 11th USDA WASDE
report. Accumulated exports of 228.6 mb as of October 4th were 9.2% of the 2.475 bb USDA projection for
“new crop” MY 2018/19. Total shipments and forward sales as of 10/4/2018 were 775.5 mb – equaling
31.3% of the USDA’s 2.475 bb projection with 7.7% (4 or 52 weeks) of “new crop” MY 2018/19 completed
(Table 1 & Figures 10‐11).
As a result, strong positive signals exist for U.S. corn exports to remain strong in coming months –
providing support for U.S. corn prices.
Developing 2018 U.S. Fall Harvest Delays: As of October 7, 2018 the U.S. corn harvest was estimated to be
34% complete in the 18 major states – compared to the recent 5 year average of 26% completed.
However, since October 8th the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that
rainfall as much as 200% to 400% or more above normal has been received in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt
from Texas north, through Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, parts of Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota,
Page | 2
Minnesota and Wisconsin. In addition, the eastern states of Georgia, North and South Carolina, and
elsewhere have been affected. Precipitation from Kansas to the north fell in the form of snow.
The result of these accumulated precipitation events will be to delay the 2018 U.S. corn harvest to some
degree – providing at least moderate support for corn prices through the remainder of the U.S. Fall harvest.
Ongoing Strong Ethanol Use: According to Environmental Information Administration (EIA) data, for the
period of September 1st through October 5th, 2018, U.S. ethanol production has averaged 1.032 million
barrels per day (range of 1.02 to 1.051 mb/d). Assuming 42 gallons of ethanol per barrel, and 2.8 gallons
of ethanol per bushel of either corn or grain sorghum used in the production process, this rate of U.S.
ethanol production would result in 5.592 bb of U.S. feedgrain use for ethanol. Assuming approximately
75‐100 mb of U.S. grain sorghum to be used for ethanol production in “new crop” MY 2018/19, at the
current pace of usage there would be 5.000‐5.250 bb of U.S. corn used for ethanol production over the
same period. This amount of ethanol use would be down 450‐650 mb from the USDA’s projection of
record high 5.650 bb use for ethanol (Table 1, Figures 9abc‐10).
However, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent action to approve the use of E15 on a season‐
round basis in U.S. motor fuels may lead to increased feedgrain use for ethanol during the remainder of
“new crop” MY 2018/19 through August 31, 2019.
Taken together, these results indicated continued strong use of U.S. feedgrains in general and U.S. corn
in particular in domestic ethanol production.
Uncertain Prospects for South American Corn Production in 2019: As a result of what can be formally termed
to be a “trade war” between China and the United States, China’s soybean export purchases have shifted
completely away from the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil and other non‐U.S. World soybean producing countries.
The export price difference between locations in Brazil and the U.S. are estimated to be more than $2.00
per bushel when converted to U.S. dollars. Given this price differential favoring South American soybeans,
it makes sense that South American farmers will have an incentive to increase their soybean acreage and
production in 2019 (Figures 14 & 15abc).
Early planting progress for soybeans in Brazil is ahead of historical pace, with indications that soybean acreage
will be increased – likely drawing acres away from first crop Brazilian corn (which typically accounts for 1/3
of the Brazil corn crop). The second Brazilian corn crop – much of which typically enters World export
markets – will be planted on harvested soybean acres in early 2019.
Consequently, IF there is a sizable acreage shift toward soybean acres in South America in 2019, and if
those acres come from corn, THEN lower World corn production will help support prices in late Winter –
Spring 2019.
…
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Lingering 2018 U.S. Fall Harvest Delays: As of November 25, 2018 the U.S. corn harvest was estimated
to be 94% complete in the 18 major states – compared to the recent 5 year average of 95% completed.
Moderate end of season harvest delays still lingered in states such as Kansas (94% harvested vs 99% 5‐
yr avg.); Nebraska (94% harvested vs 97% average); North Dakota (80% harvested vs 93% avg.); Ohio
(86% harvested vs 93% avg.); Pennsylvania (82% harvested vs 89% avg.); and South Dakota (90%
harvested vs 97% avg.); To complicate matters in these areas, precipitation in the form of snow had
fallen in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and North and South Dakota over the November 19‐
26 period – further slowing harvest in these areas.
The accumulated result of these slow harvest and recent precipitation events will be to delay the final
part of the 2018 U.S. corn harvest to some degree – providing at least moderate uncertainty about final
2018 U.S. corn production and some support for corn prices through the conclusion of the U.S. Fall harvest.
…
Breakout Sessions
2014 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … and designing and adopting risk management instruments
to … Historical Impacts of Precipitation
and Temperature on Farm
Production in Kansas
David Lambert
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Slides prepared for the Risk & Profit Conference
August 21‐22, 2014
Overview of the talk:
• …
November 1, 2009
Pork Quality Grading System and Wholesale Pork Price Reporting
Agriculture
November 2009
A Value Ag … research in
livestock market risk
management, beef demand … handling, food safety,
price risk management and
analysis …
November 1, 2009
Agriculture
November 2009
A Value Ag … research in
livestock market risk
management, beef demand … handling, food safety,
price risk management and
analysis …
May 29, 2024
Recent Videos
Price Targets, (the price/profit you’ll sell at);c) Date … A) $8.46 $7.92 Expected Profit $0.07
DO NOT consider this … gain.• Once implemented, a profit goal ($0.20) and date to …
April 29, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
April 28, 2020
Recent events in the U.S. economy caused … crop”
MY 2020/21.
Risk Avoiding Market Responses … corn producers making these profit maximizing / loss
minimizing …