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May 28, 2010
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
various forms is used in livestock feed rations as a competitive … Projections of grain and livestock supply, use and
agricultural … analysis. United
States corn and livestock supply-use projections were …
April 3, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
ed. At the same time, higher than expected U.S. March 1st corn stocks in the Grain Stocks report
have signaled lower than expected usage of corn for livestock feeding during December‐ … … wer
by 175 million bushels, with all of the reduction attributed lower livestock feeding. This would translate to
“old crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. feed and residual use of 5.375 bb – reducing total U.S. wheat usage to cast at
14.645 bb. As a result, “old crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks are projected to be 175 mb higher to 2.302 bb
with % Stocks/Use being 13.08% (up from projections of 2.047 bb and $ ) – down 225 mb from February,
Page | 2
anddown from 2.293 bb (15.65% S/U) in MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average %
S/U prior to the March 29th reports).
4. KSU‐Adjusted USDA Supply‐Demand Projections for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
The results of the March 29th USDA Prospective Plantings report have caused changes in the “new crop”
M 2018/19 projections for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices that were released by the USDA at the
Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23, 2018. Estimates by Kansas State University
of these changes are as follows.
The updated KSU‐adjusted USDA‐based forecasts are that a) 2018 U.S. corn production would be 14.390
bb – based on 88.026 million acres (ma) planted, an estimate of 80.846 ma harvested (with 5 year average
harvested‐to‐planted history), and a yield of 174.0 bu (same as the USDA February 23rd projection).
Total supplies for “new crop” MY 2018/19 are projected to be 16.419 bb, with 2.302 bb beginning stocks,
14.067 bb production, and 50 mb imports. Total use continues to be forecast at 14.520 bb – with projections
of ethanol use at 5.650 bb (a record high), non‐ethanol food seed and industrial use at 1.495 bb (also a record
high), exports of 1.900 bb (down 325 mb from the current marketing year), and feed and residual use of 5.475
mb (down 75 mb from this marketing year).
With these changes in total supply, ending stocks are now projected to be down to 1.899 bb (13.08%
Stocks/Use) – with both being down significantly from “old crop” MY 2017/18 levels. United States’ corn
prices are projected to average a KSU‐adjusted $3.60 /bu (up $0.20 from the USDA’s original February 23rd
forecast). This scenario is given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D.
O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2018/19. These projections are to show how varying 2018 U.S. corn production outcomes could affect U.S.
corn supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
A ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 88.026 ma planted, 80.846 ma harvested, 176.6 bu/ac record yield (equal to
2017 record high), 14.277 bb production, 16.629 bb total supplies, 14.600 bb total use, 2.029 bb ending
stocks, 13.90% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (20% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 88.026 ma planted, 80.846 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yield (equal to 2009
yield), 13.291 bb production, 15.643 bb total supplies, 14.315 bb total use, 1.328 bb ending stocks, 9.28%
S/U, & $4.40 /bu U.S. corn average price.
…
November 6, 2013
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-30
10/31/13Livestock Marketing Information Center … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-31
10/31/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
G-NP-32
10/31/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data …
October 19, 2022
Economicshttps://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-
demand/monthly-export-meat-demand-indices-usdabls-data
Agricultural … Economicshttps://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-
demand/monthly-export-meat-demand-indices-usdabls-data
Agricultural … Economicshttps://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-
demand/monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-data
Agricultural …
December 11, 2012
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/beef/Cow-
calf_EnterpriseAnalysis(Nov2012).pdf … 12/7/12
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
ESTIMATED … Per Cow
C-P-66
09/20/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data …
February 23, 2018
2018
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Beef … Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
LMIC … amp; LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
$448
$553
$879
$806
y …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
following: any increase in the livestock, goods kept for sale
and … conditions and/or crop or livestock prices.
• A hybrid … buildings, or both. Under a livestock-share leasing
arrangement …
September 6, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… l Food, Seed and Industrial usage is projected to be record high 1.480 bb – up from
1.460 bb and 1.453 bb the previous two (2) marketing years (Table 1, Figure 8).
Exports of U.S. corn are projected to be 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – down from the 11‐year high
(Table 1, Figures 8 & 11) of 2.400 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and 2.294 bb in MY 2016/17 . During the eight
(8) previous years, U.S. corn exports averaged 1.702 bb – ranging from 730 mb to 1.979 bb. This “new
plateau” in the exports for My 2016/17 through projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 illustrates the recent
strength of U.S. corn exports and their contribution to U.S. corn usage. Improved U.S. corn export prospects
are expected partly as a result of 2018 corn production problems for export competitors Argentina and Brazil.
United States’ corn feed and residual use is projected to be 5.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2018/19 as a result
of anticipated high levels of overall U.S. livestock production in the remaind …
Price Risk Publications
and how to
market crops or livestock
can have as great an impact … sale at harvest or
when livestock are ready for
market to … returns to storage.
With livestock, only the nearby basis
needs …
August 1, 2018
General Sessions
0.4%vs. Q2.2017
http://agmanager.info/livestock‐meat/meat‐demand
Demand is NOT … 2018
?_________?
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
BeefBasis.com, Salina, KS 2018 Projections (as of 8/10/18):Oct. 17: $170
$285.63
$138.44
$170.66
$162.50
$162.50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
2003 …