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December 11, 2018
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Note … Information Effects
3. Food Demand Survey Insights
4. Consumer Beef …
August 6, 2020
Land Buying and Valuing
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: The estimates … Agricultural Land Values
Survey, conducted during June and … Agricultural Land Values Survey contacted the same operators …
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ties, 2) summer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong U.S. corn
use for ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding.
How … …
Page | 4
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
August 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On August 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its August 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for
corn. The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn begins on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31,
2018. Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/)
had released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested acreage
estimates from the Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop the August 10th projection of 2017 U.S.
corn production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports.
The USDA used at combination of farmers surveys, actual on‐farm in‐field samples, and satellite the August
10, 2017 NASS Crop Production and WAOB World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) reports. The
upcoming September 12th, October 12th and November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production reports will also be
based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and actual in‐the‐field conditions – with a
final 2017 USDA NASS Crop Production Summary in January 2018.
CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended higher over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17 ¼
on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.75 on August
3rd, and $3.48 ¼ on August 31st ‐ before closing at $3.55 ¼ on Friday, September 1st.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended higher over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to a
low of $3.98 on August 3rd, and $3.71 on August 31st ‐ before closing at $3.81 ¾ on Friday, September 1st.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Friday, September 1st was $0.26 ½ per bushel (i.e., $3.81 ¾ for JULY 2018 Corn less $3.55 ¼ for DEC 2017
Corn), or $0.03786 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to commercial grain storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for
interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Page | 5
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of September 1, 2017)
ne …
December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ol demand for corn in Kansas and nationwide.
Page | 2
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Winter‐Spring 2018
First, the corn market is likely to be only moderately responsive to any early season 2018 U.S. corn
production threats since beginning stocks for “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.295
bb rather than down to 1.250‐1.500 bb. If no significant production risk emerges in summer 2018, then these
large “old crop” MY 2017/18 carryover supplies will continue to limit 2018 corn crop forward pricing prospects.
Second, low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling
production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, the USDA is projecting at least “moderate” continued strength in U.S. corn exports of 1.925 bb for
“new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn export shipments have been “slow” to date in the current
marketing year. However, the USDA maintains its optimism for “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. corn exports
because of a) low U.S. corn prices, b) expectations of significantly tighter foreign stocks and percent (%)
stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing South American corn exports in early 2018.
Early forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 95 million metric tons (mmt) in this marketing
year with harvests lasting from February through May. Early forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production
to be 42 mmt in this marketing year with harvests lasting from March through May. However, dry conditions
may limit 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil – and subsequently support U.S. corn exports.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the December 12th Crop Production reports, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) projected
yields up to a record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn
production up to 14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016. The also USDA left unchanged
its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20 mb) from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.485 bb – raised 50 mb from November on higher ethanol use, but still
down 162 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.437 bb (16.8% S/U) – up from
2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu
(range of $2.85‐$3.55). This is down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is
given an 80% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These projections are to show how varying corn export outcomes could affect the USDA’s projection
in the December 9, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.785 bb total use, 2.099 bb ending stocks, 14.20% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
Page | 3
B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 1.800 bb exports, 14.360 bb total use, 2.524 bb ending stocks, 17.58% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
6. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2018/19
In the November 28th Long Term Baseline projections, the USDA forecast for “next crop” MY 2018/19 that
2018 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres would equal 91.0 million acres (ma) and 83.7 ma, respectively,
both up from 90.429 ma planted and 83.119 ma harvested in 2017. Corn yields in 2018 are forecast at 173.5
bu/ac, down from the record high of 175.4 bu/ac in 2017. U.S. corn production is 2018 is projected to be
14.520 bb – down from 14.578 bb now projected for 2017.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 17.007 bb – adjusted for changes in the
December WASDE report in MY 2017/18 ending stocks. Total use is forecast at 14.450 bb – down 35 mb from
this current marketing year. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.557 bb (17.7% S/U) – up from 2.437 bb
(16.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu – up
from $3.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,044.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
2.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 973.5 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,272.1 mmt are down marginally from the record high 1,290.5 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.6% from the record
high of 164.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 204.1 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.3
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected
Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 142.2 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from
169.0 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 170.8 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 124.5 mmt
(15.0% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.6 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 104.1 mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.0% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 44.3% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.0%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
September 16, 2019
KFMA Research
producers participated in this survey, which only supports the … summary of the
additional survey data is also provided and … combines the additional
survey data with those in the KFMA …
September 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
impacts on 2016 crop production,
could each impact corn market price direction and volatility in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. Also,
low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs and improved profitability for U.S. and Foreign livestock
feeding and bioenergy us …
July 21, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
use production problems for
corn and other coarse grains in parts of the U.S., South America, Australia, India, and elsewhere in the next 6‐
12 months. Low feedgrain prices – resulting in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and
bioenergy us … ‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
2014/15 marketing year will end on August 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. corn marketing year
will begin on September 1, 2015 and will last through August 31, 2016.
In the July 10th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for corn are
based on WAOB estimates of crop acreage and yields. However, the first projection of 2015 U.S. corn
production by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) that will be based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials will be in the August 12, 2015 Crop Production and WASDE reports.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for the December 2014 – mid‐July 2015 Period
The CME SEPTEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current
grain market price prospects through late August 2015, when the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract will
then assume the lead contract role in the market. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off
SEPTEMBER 2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as
other World grain markets. The “current crop” SEPTEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially
responded in a “positive” manner to the information in the July 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward
trended first higher then back lower.
On the day of the report – Friday, July 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) SEPTEMBER 2015 corn
futures prices opened at $4.28 per bushel, and traded in a range of $4.24 ¼ ‐ $4.39 ½ during the session,
before settling at $4.34 ¾ – UP $0.06 for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released
at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then,
SEPTEMBER 2015 Corn has traded from a high of $4.43 ¼ on Tuesday, July 14th to a low of $4.04 ½ on Monday,
July 20th before closing at $4.05 on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the lead “new crop” corn futures contract, representing
U.S. corn market price prospects for the mid‐October through late‐November 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is
the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain
sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges here in the United States. The “new crop” DECEMBER 2015
corn futures market contract also initially responded “positively” to the information in the July 10th USDA
reports, and since then has trended first higher and then downward.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.38 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.34 ¼ ‐ $4.49 during the session, before settling at $4.45 – up $0.06 per bushel for the
day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has traded from a high of $4.54 ¼ on Tuesday, July 14th to a
low of $4.15 ¼ on Monday, July 20th before closing at $4.16 on that same day.
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Figure 1. SEPTEMBER 2015 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
as “El Nino” may cause production problems for
corn and other coarse grains in parts of the U.S., South America, Australia, India, and elsewhere in the next 6‐
18 months. Low feedgrain prices – resulting in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and
bioenergy us …
October 19, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
affect the U.S. corn market in what remains of 2016 through mid‐
2017 include: 1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which will be
placed in storage after fall harvest, 2) anticipation of continued strong use of “new crop” 2016 U.S. corn in
domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S. corn exports –
driven partly by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016 as well as other World corn
market factors, and 4) the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial
system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in later 2016 and 2017.
For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve could affect U.S.
interest rates which could affect U.S. corn exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide an
unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S.
and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn
plantings of 94.490 ma (up 6.491 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.836 ma (up 6.087 ma from 2015),
record high projected yields of 173.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the previous record high of 171.0
bu/ac in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.057 bb – up from 13.601 bb in
2015, the current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.845 bb (record high), total use of 14.525 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.320 bb (15.97% S/U) – up from 1.738 bb (12.72% S/U) in “old crop” MY
2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $2.95‐$3.55 (midpoint = $3.25 /bu) – being down from $3.61 /bu for “old crop” MY
2015/16. This scenario is given a 70% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 2
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, each gauging the likelihood of lower U.S. corn
yields and production than projected by the USDA in the October 12th USDA WASDE report.
KSU Scenario A) “172.5 bu/ac – 14.979 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 94.490 ma planted, 86.836
ma harvested, 172.5 bu/ac yield, 14.979 bb production, 16.717 bb total supplies, 14.525 bb total use, 2.192 bb
ending stocks, 15.09% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
KSU Scenario B) “171.0 bu/ac – 14.849 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 94.490 ma planted, 86.836 ma
harvested, 171.0 bu/ac yield, 14.849 bb production, 16.637 bb total supplies, 14.525 bb total use, 2.112 bb
ending stocks, 14.54% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,025.7 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,014.4
mmt in MY 2014/15.
Record high World corn total supplies of 1,235.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from
1,168.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 1,189.7 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of 143.8
mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 141.7
mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 216.8 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17
are up from 210.9 mmt (21.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.9 mmt (21.3% S/U) in MY
2014/15. Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at
216.8 mmt, World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to actually
decline to 21.3% ‐ indicative of expected continued strong World demand for corn at low prices – especially in
Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather conditions.
Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January‐May 2016, 2nd crop harvested
in May‐August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.
This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided support for U.S. corn exports and even ethanol
production (via exports). However, expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a predominant
negative impact on U.S. corn market prices through late summer and early fall. Brazilian corn production is
forecast by the USDA to rebound back to 83.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production). Uncertainty about
Brazilian corn production prospects in 2017 could be a major factor impacting U.S. and World corn prices in the
coming spring and summer months of 2017.
China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September‐October 2016) is estimated to be
216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65
mmt in MY 2014/15. A major focus in World corn markets is on the size of Chinese ending stocks and on
recent changes in China’s domestic corn stock management policies. Ending stocks of corn in China are
projected to be 103.7 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt (50.9% S/U) in “old
crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 100.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15. Over the last three marketing years,
percent ending stocks‐to‐use of corn for China ranging from 49.7% to 50.9% are the highest since MY 2002/03
(51.6%). During the interim MY 2003/04 to MY 2013/14 period, Chinese corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use
averaged 30.5%, ranging from 25.2% to 39.1%.
…
January 1, 2004
Land Leasing
Forms
Census Bureau conducts a survey of Fishing, Hunting, and … Wildlife Service. The 2001 survey results indicate that
982,000 … rate was $2.77 per acre.
A survey conducted by Kansas State …