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January 1, 2014
crops section of the K-State FarmManagement
Guide series examine wheat … snow
covered. Under proper management research shows little or … effect on yields with properly managed spring grazing.
Additional …
May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
A Deferred Future “Carrying Charge” View of KS HRW Winter Wheat Futures
On May 6th carrying charges between the JULY 2019 to SEPTEMBER 2019 Kansas HRW Wheat futures
contracts (i.e., the JUL‐SEP 2019 Spread) were $0.11 per bushel, or $0.0550 per bushel per month. This
compares to spreads of $0.22 /bu or $0.0733 /bu/mo. for SEP‐DEC 2019, and $0.2250 /bu or $0.0750 /bu/mo.
for DEC 2019‐MAR 2020 Kansas HRW Wheat futures contracts.
These “full carry” deferred futures full contract storage cost contract spreads are influenced by large
supplies on hand – which leads to higher Variable Storage Rates (VSR) among Kansas HRW Wheat futures
contracts. These large carries are encouraging storage of “new crop” 2019 Kansas HRW wheat on the one
hand, and provide the basis for a potential return to storage hedges by producers and grain elevators for the
2019 HRW wheat crop on the other.
Extending this analysis further to later deferred contracts, whereas on May 6th harvest JULY 2019 Kansas
HRW Wheat futures closed at $4.03 /bu, the JULY 2020 contract closed at $4.84 ¾ /bu for JULY 2020 – up
20.2% and $0.0681 /bu/month from JULY 2019. Extending even further into the next year, on May 6th JULY
2021 KS HRW Wheat closed at $5.42 ½ /bu, up 11.9% and $0.0479 /bu/month from JULY 2020
From an economic viewpoint, these deferred years’ JULY Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices in years 2020
& 2021 could reflect market expectations that HRW wheat futures prices will eventually be higher than
current bids for JULY 2019 futures – which is consistent with economic theory. However, it also seems that
the carrying charges now reflected across the range of available deferred KS HRW Wheat futures contracts
appear to be being extended out to the distant “new crop” JULY 2020 and JULY 2021 contracts.
Restated, it appears these uninterrupted positive carrying charges are being inflexibly and mechanically
applied to deferred KS HRW Wheat futures contracts as far as 24 months into the future – regardless of what
expected fundamental supply‐demand conditions may be in the wheat market that far out. If this is so, then
these deferred futures prices may present: a) opportunities for long‐term market arbitrage positions to
traders, or b) hedging opportunities for U.S. wheat producers IF they are able to financially manage the risk of
potential margin calls should wheat prices should move unexpectedly higher. For agricultural producers,
these extended deferred futures prices provide profitable but at risk pricing opportunities should they choose
to bear the risk of utilizing them.
3 …
Breakout Sessions
community businesses, and financial agencies. Over the past
decade … declining slightly in Kansas
as farm incomes have skyrocketed … the average
estimated “farming” income earned by the
land …
May 1, 2003
Assessing Business Opportunities
enhance producers’ net farm income and wealth, this paper … opportunities play in their net farm/ranch income situation … The data show that when net farm incomes are adjusted for …
November 21, 2011
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Cooperatives
KFSA Directors & Management Meeting
Hutchinson, KS
November … Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury … ARE A BELLWETHER
FOR THE FINANCIAL HEALTH OF
AGRICULTURE
After …
August 2, 2022
Recent Videos, Precision Ag and Technology Podcasts and Videos
B.1.2 Hypothetical Model Farm Scenario … Utilization Relative to a Base Farm Value
of $1,452,173 in 2004 … 7. Estimate of Regional Farm-Level Costs due to a GNSS …
February 1, 1999
Land Rental
Rates
Cooperative Extension Service
Risk Management •Financial RiskManagement
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL …
July 27, 2012
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
megatrends?
2
1. Positive net farm income growth is the ‘new … Issue #1
Today’s net farm income is the ‘new normal’ … normal’
U.S. Net Cash
Farm Income ($ billion)
5
0
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4
5
9
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3
5
1
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1 …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Agricultural Economics
Farm Income Outlook
ALLEN M. FEATHERSTONE
KANSAS … Economics
Introduction
An outstanding farm economy through the end of … strong year into 2022
Net farm income and government program …
June 1, 2000
Section 1: What's Value-Added?
IMPORTANT..................................7
2.1 Farm Value versus Marketing Bill..................................................7 … Expenditures Divided into Farm Value and Value Added (1983 … Comparing the Marketing Bill and Farm Value …