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September 16, 2019
KFMA Research
collection included questions about pre-conditioning practices … producers participated in this survey, which only supports the … summary of the
additional survey data is also provided and …
May 1, 2003
Assessing Business Opportunities
may
be done through formal surveys or interviews. For example … range of their knowledge about the available
alternatives … the proponents’ knowledge about
alternative solutions which …
May 1, 2003
Guidelines
may
be done through formal surveys or interviews. For example … range of their knowledge about the available
alternatives … the proponents’ knowledge about
alternative solutions which …
January 13, 2022
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
MDM is a monthly online
survey with a sample of over 2,000 … report, insights from the MDM surveys conducted between July and … report. Data from over 12,000 survey respondents are used
to …
June 1, 2009
KFMA Newsletters
production has raised
concerns about environmental impacts and … by the Kansas
Geological Survey. The brown or red areas have …
December 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. grain sorghum and World coarse
grain supply‐demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “current” 2016/17 marketing years
(MY) for corn. “Current” MY 2016/17 for U.S. grain sorghum began on 9/1/2016 and will last through
8/31/2017. The USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop
Production report on the same day. However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey‐
based, but instead carr …
December 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ing when
continued strong domestic U.S. fuel ethanol use and livestock feeding of the 2017 crop U.S. feedgrains are
anticipated for the remainder of the “new crop” 2017/18 marketing year.
3) Given the pace of U.S. grain sorghum exports, it is likely that there will be reduced grain sorghum storage
beyond the Winter months – as attractive pricing opportunities perform their “demand pull” effect upon
farmer’s marketing actions.
4) Higher U.S. grain sorghum prices relative to competitive feedgrains will likely “draw” increased 2018 U.S.
grain sorghum planted acreage – as projected by the USDA in its Long Term Agricultural Projections. The
question may be “Just how many more acres of grain sorghum will U.S. farmers plant in 2018?” It is
possible that higher acreage and good growing conditions could bring about an increase in 2018 U.S. Grain
Sorghum production to 450‐500+ million bushels – much larger than the USDA’s 2018 forecast of 384 mb.
D. USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2018/19 & “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In its November 28th Long Term Agricultural Projections, the USDA projected 2018 U.S. Grain Sorghum
plantings of 6.700 million acres (ma), up 17% or ≈ 1 ma from 5.709 ma in 2017. Harvested acres U.S. grain
sorghum in 2018 are projected to be 5.700 ma, up from 5.049 ma in 2017. Average yields in 2018 in the U.S.
are forecast at 67.3 bu/ac, down from 70.4 bu/ac in 2017. As a result, 2018 U.S. Grain Sorghum production is
forecast to be 384 mb – up from 356 mb in 2017, but down from 480 mb in year 2016 and 597 mb in 2017.
Forecast “next crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. Grain Sorghum total supplies are 405 mb (vs 391 this marketing
year, and 519‐620 mb the 2 years before). United States’ Grain Sorghum exports are projected to be 230 mb
in “next crop” 2018/19 – down from 260 mb in “new crop” MY 2017/18, and less than 241 mb in MY 2016/17.
Total use of U.S. Grain Sorghum in “next crop” MY 2018/19 of 370 mb is unchanged from “new crop” MY
2017/18 – but down from 485‐583 mb the two previous years.
Ending stocks of U.S. Grain Sorghum in “next crop” MY 2018/19 are projected to be 35 mb (9.46%
Stocks/Use) – up from 21 mb (5.68% Stocks/Use) in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
The season average price for U.S. Grain Sorghum in “next crop” MY 2018/19 is projected to be $3.30 /bu –
up from $3.10 /bu in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
This scenario for “new crop” MY 2017/18 is given an 80% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
E. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Two (2) alternative KSU projections for “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. Grain Sorghum Total Use include the
following forecasts:
1) “Higher Exports” scenario (10% probability) for “new crop” MY 2017/18: 2017 Planted / harvested acres of
5.519/4.812 ma, 2017 production of 339 mb, total supplies of 339 mb, exports of 290 mb, total use of 359
mb, ending stocks of 13 mbb, 3.62% ending stocks‐to‐use, and $3.40 /bu U.S. average price.
2) “Lower Exports” scenario (10% probability) for “new crop” MY 2017/18: 2017 Planted / harvested acres of
5.519/4.812 ma, 2017 production of 339 mb, total supplies of 339 mb, exports of 230 mb, total use of 350
mb, ending stocks of 23 mbb, 6.57% ending stocks‐to‐use, and $3.00 /bu U.S. average price.
F. World Coarse Grain Supply‐Demand
The USDA projected that “new crop” 2017/18 marketing year World Coarse Grain total supplies of 1,586.3
mmt will be down 2.0% from 1,618.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 5.2% over 1,507.35 mmt in
MY 2015/16. Projected World Coarse Grain total use of 1,354.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 is down
marginally from “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up 7.9% over 1,254.9 mmt in MY 2015/16. “Coarse Grains”
include grain sorghum, corn, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
World Coarse Grain ending stocks are forecast to decline, with the USDA projecting ending stocks of 232.2
mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 11.5% from 262.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down 8.0% from
252.4 mmt in MY 2015/16. Although World Coarse Grain ending stocks are projected to be the eighth highest
on record in “new crop” MY 2017/18 at 232.2 mmt, World Coarse Grain percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “new
crop” MY 2017/18 are forecast to actually decline to 17.15% ‐ to the lowest level since 17.12% in MY 2013/14.
This is indicative that strong World usage for coarse grains at low prices is expected to continue.
…
Summary Book - All Counties
99
Cow-Calf Management Survey … ranges shows the average lose about ten percentage points profit …
July 1, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
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July 17, 2013
influence
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